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> When in a war, you are buying ammunition and weaponry with USD, not PPP. That depends on if you import the weapons or make them yourself, right? In the Ukra

> When in a war, you are buying ammunition and weaponry with USD, not PPP. That depends on if you import the weapons or make them yourself, right? In the Ukraine war, a common heard argument is that Russia can manufacture more weapons than its GDP suggests, because of PPP.

alephnerd 2y ago
> In the Ukraine war, a common heard argument is that Russia can manufacture more weapons than its GDP suggests, because of PPP. You are still dependent on foreign inputs that are dependent on the Dollar or Yuan payments, and even domestic commodities and goods are impacted by global prices. PPP in isolation is useless, and I'm honestly surprised Bruegel even published this article.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- sapiogram 2y ago
  > You are still dependent on foreign inputs that are dependent on the Dollar or Yuan payments For Russia in particular, do we have some idea of how true this actually is? Russia lacks a lot of things, but natural resources is generally not one of them.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > For Russia in particular, do we have some idea of how true this actually is? Russia lacks a lot of things, but natural resources is generally not one of them. This isn't a game of Civ 4 where access to resources automatically grants you production. For example, the Oktyabrsky Mine is one of the largest nickel mines in the world, yet Russia has to export that nickel abroad to be processed in order to be used in batteries or integrated circuits. And resources are not interchangeable - oil from Dharan has an entirely different set of specs to process compared to oil from northern Alberta. Resources aren't that rare - most countries just choose not to exploit resources because they might not be an efficient deployment of capital (why should I spend billions subsidizing a commodity product whose margins are near 0 or even negative when I can use that money to build a hospital instead) There's a reason people get PhDs in Chemical Engineering, Chemistry, Geology, Mining Engineering, Physics, Geophysics, Petroleum Engineering, etc - these are very complex and specialized problems, and no country has a complete monopoly on human capital in these spaces. Moments like this make me wish HN was shut down - it's gotten so braindead.
    - sapiogram 2y ago
      Thank you for your response. I think your final remark was unnecessary though, I think less people asking stupid questions just leads to more confidently incorrect non-questions, which is not an improvement.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        Just a bit burned out by the low quality non-technical discourse on HN as someone who actually used to work in the Policy space. I use HN to read articles or comments about ld_preload or shoot the shit about internal gossip in the tech industry - not rehash the same kinds of arguments you see on Reddit. > I think less people asking stupid questions just leads to more confidently incorrect non-questions Until domain experts get burned out and start flamewars for shits and giggles, or just quit HN entirely.
        notact 2y ago
        sapiogram made no assertions or arguments, just asked a simple, reasonable and good-faith question. Your response was disproportionately negative.
    - imtringued 2y ago
      Yeah the comments by alephnerd really drag this place down. "Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills." I hope you've seen that rule.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        I absolutely have seen that rule and I will continue to yell this at the clouds in the sky - DISCOURSE ON HN HAS ABSOLUTELY DEGRADED.
- paganel 2y ago
  Russia can easily produce all of the steel and all of the explosives needed for its shells all by itself, all thanks to its huge territory and the accompanying huge natural resources. It's one of the very few countries that can accomplish that, I think only the US can compete against them in that domain, i.e. becoming 100% autarchic in case of total war.
  - BlueTemplar 2y ago
    I mean, China, EU's common market, heck, even just pre-war Ukraine would not be far behind for that.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Just about every single trillion dollar economies can become autarkic if needed. There are 19 1T+ economies and 3 more on the way in the next 2-3 years (Switzerland, Poland, Taiwan).
      - paganel 2y ago
        Money in the bank doesn’t produce grain out of nothing, you need land for it. The same goes for natural resources. Or maybe we’re thinking about autarchy differently.
    - paganel 2y ago
      Push come to stove, China doesn’t have the agricultural fields needed to feed its people for 3-4 years or more in case of a future sea blockade. Europe doesn’t have the natural resources, neither the grain (if we were to exclude the fields of Southern Ukraine).
  - lostlogin 2y ago
    > Russia can easily produce all of the steel and all of the explosives needed Russia might be able to produce a lot of steel, but it is struggling to produce military grade, hard steel. Half way down this article: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/2179504/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-doesn-t-have-a-backup-plan-when-it-runs-out-of-artillery https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/2179504/-Ukraine-U...
pixl97 2y ago
Russia with it's very large size has that ability, much like the US. EU countries are going to have to do quite a bit of internal trading between each other to make the quantities needed. Also there is some question of how much Russia is depending on China for stuff too.
anonylizard 2y ago
Russia is not manufacturing more weapons than its GDP suggests. Its simply spending more money than the west donates to Ukraine (Because Russia is fighting for Putin's survival, while its not #1 priority in the west), and importing everything from China using that money. Russia is actually precisely the example why GDP matters. Russia's position before the war was an overwhelming advantage, pinching Ukraine from three directions in a huge concave, in a flat plains basically without geographical barriers, against a divided, poor, and old (unlike say Afghanistan which has endless 18 year old men) country in Ukraine. Yet it has fought the war into a extremely expensive stalemate, with draft imposed, large casualties, and basically total loss of international prestige. All that, because its low GDP meant no high end equipment, no advanced logistical capabilities, no sophisticated information advantage. While, the US, by Elon Musk simply donating some starlinks (A definitive high GDP product), made all Russian attempts at disrupting Ukrainian command chains useless.
- lostlogin 2y ago
  I’m not sure that crediting Musk with supporting Ukraine is quite accurate. He is quite the fan of Putin and at times has blocked Ukrainian operations against Russia. This might be a perfect example a drawback of having tech billionaires. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-putin-colin-kahl-pentagon-ukraine-starlink-b2397109.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-pu...

alephnerd 2y ago

> In the Ukraine war, a common heard argument is that Russia can manufacture more weapons than its GDP suggests, because of PPP. You are still dependent on foreign inputs that are dependent on the Dollar or Yuan payments, and even domestic commodities and goods are impacted by global prices. PPP in isolation is useless, and I'm honestly surprised Bruegel even published this article.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
sapiogram 2y ago
> You are still dependent on foreign inputs that are dependent on the Dollar or Yuan payments For Russia in particular, do we have some idea of how true this actually is? Russia lacks a lot of things, but natural resources is generally not one of them.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > For Russia in particular, do we have some idea of how true this actually is? Russia lacks a lot of things, but natural resources is generally not one of them. This isn't a game of Civ 4 where access to resources automatically grants you production. For example, the Oktyabrsky Mine is one of the largest nickel mines in the world, yet Russia has to export that nickel abroad to be processed in order to be used in batteries or integrated circuits. And resources are not interchangeable - oil from Dharan has an entirely different set of specs to process compared to oil from northern Alberta. Resources aren't that rare - most countries just choose not to exploit resources because they might not be an efficient deployment of capital (why should I spend billions subsidizing a commodity product whose margins are near 0 or even negative when I can use that money to build a hospital instead) There's a reason people get PhDs in Chemical Engineering, Chemistry, Geology, Mining Engineering, Physics, Geophysics, Petroleum Engineering, etc - these are very complex and specialized problems, and no country has a complete monopoly on human capital in these spaces. Moments like this make me wish HN was shut down - it's gotten so braindead.
  - sapiogram 2y ago
    Thank you for your response. I think your final remark was unnecessary though, I think less people asking stupid questions just leads to more confidently incorrect non-questions, which is not an improvement.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Just a bit burned out by the low quality non-technical discourse on HN as someone who actually used to work in the Policy space. I use HN to read articles or comments about ld_preload or shoot the shit about internal gossip in the tech industry - not rehash the same kinds of arguments you see on Reddit. > I think less people asking stupid questions just leads to more confidently incorrect non-questions Until domain experts get burned out and start flamewars for shits and giggles, or just quit HN entirely.
      - notact 2y ago
        sapiogram made no assertions or arguments, just asked a simple, reasonable and good-faith question. Your response was disproportionately negative.
  - imtringued 2y ago
    Yeah the comments by alephnerd really drag this place down. "Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills." I hope you've seen that rule.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      I absolutely have seen that rule and I will continue to yell this at the clouds in the sky - DISCOURSE ON HN HAS ABSOLUTELY DEGRADED.
paganel 2y ago
Russia can easily produce all of the steel and all of the explosives needed for its shells all by itself, all thanks to its huge territory and the accompanying huge natural resources. It's one of the very few countries that can accomplish that, I think only the US can compete against them in that domain, i.e. becoming 100% autarchic in case of total war.
- BlueTemplar 2y ago
  I mean, China, EU's common market, heck, even just pre-war Ukraine would not be far behind for that.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Just about every single trillion dollar economies can become autarkic if needed. There are 19 1T+ economies and 3 more on the way in the next 2-3 years (Switzerland, Poland, Taiwan).
    - paganel 2y ago
      Money in the bank doesn’t produce grain out of nothing, you need land for it. The same goes for natural resources. Or maybe we’re thinking about autarchy differently.
  - paganel 2y ago
    Push come to stove, China doesn’t have the agricultural fields needed to feed its people for 3-4 years or more in case of a future sea blockade. Europe doesn’t have the natural resources, neither the grain (if we were to exclude the fields of Southern Ukraine).
- lostlogin 2y ago
  > Russia can easily produce all of the steel and all of the explosives needed Russia might be able to produce a lot of steel, but it is struggling to produce military grade, hard steel. Half way down this article: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/2179504/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-doesn-t-have-a-backup-plan-when-it-runs-out-of-artillery https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/2179504/-Ukraine-U...

pixl97 2y ago

Russia with it's very large size has that ability, much like the US. EU countries are going to have to do quite a bit of internal trading between each other to make the quantities needed. Also there is some question of how much Russia is depending on China for stuff too.

anonylizard 2y ago

Russia is not manufacturing more weapons than its GDP suggests. Its simply spending more money than the west donates to Ukraine (Because Russia is fighting for Putin's survival, while its not #1 priority in the west), and importing everything from China using that money. Russia is actually precisely the example why GDP matters. Russia's position before the war was an overwhelming advantage, pinching Ukraine from three directions in a huge concave, in a flat plains basically without geographical barriers, against a divided, poor, and old (unlike say Afghanistan which has endless 18 year old men) country in Ukraine. Yet it has fought the war into a extremely expensive stalemate, with draft imposed, large casualties, and basically total loss of international prestige. All that, because its low GDP meant no high end equipment, no advanced logistical capabilities, no sophisticated information advantage. While, the US, by Elon Musk simply donating some starlinks (A definitive high GDP product), made all Russian attempts at disrupting Ukrainian command chains useless.

lostlogin 2y ago
I’m not sure that crediting Musk with supporting Ukraine is quite accurate. He is quite the fan of Putin and at times has blocked Ukrainian operations against Russia. This might be a perfect example a drawback of having tech billionaires. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-putin-colin-kahl-pentagon-ukraine-starlink-b2397109.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-pu...