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It's not much safer now that a bunch of disposable Russians have been exposed. Russian businessmen moved to the EU and the US by the thousand per year. We won'

It's not much safer now that a bunch of disposable Russians have been exposed. Russian businessmen moved to the EU and the US by the thousand per year. We won't know who of them are "businessmen" and nobody is even pretending to check.

anovikov 3y ago
Well it's a lot better than not letting them leave. Staying in and paying taxes there supports Putin; plus if they knew they are stuck in and can't move to the civilised world, they'd have to develop some sense of belonging with Russia. EU is making everything possible to suck out everyone with half the brain from Russia and this is a good thing. A lot of new immigration programs that appear to be specifically tailored to be convenient for Russians, appeared since the war began. So the logic is to: - make tourism/travel harder by limiting visas and having people fly through far away stopovers (Dubai, Istanbul, or Belgrade for those who can afford $2K economy ticket) - make immigration easier - make any cross-border business harder - no SWIFT, no way to get in Russian IT-related money and most of the money overall even if transfer happens through 3rd world, etc. This way people leave, realise they can't live in 2 countries and have to pick, then realise they can't do cross border business nearly as conveniently as they hoped, so concentrate on local or US market, then realise how much easier it is vs doing business in Russia (all they need to do that is a magic kick to initially force them to), and never look back. Granted, few of them believe in democracy or even opposed to Putin. Mostly they see Europe as "safe place with a system which is easy to game", but that's OK. Their children will integrate and will be different. After all, save for American expats and Hong Kong refugees (who go to UK anyway), these are by far the best kind of immigrants Europe can hope for.
- jojobas 3y ago
  How about actually vetting them, even if post factum? Bellingcat, The Insider et al uncovered fake identities and actual biographies of agents with a tiny fraction of resources Western security agencies have. It's actually why these agencies get tax money.
  - anovikov 3y ago
    Russians, even not GRU spies, are incredibly good at working around any possible regulation. If need be they will come with Kyrgyzstani or some Balkan passports and whole life histories thoroughly faked. Just for lulz. In Russia, if you google (well, yandex) for "make a rubber seal from imprint", you get hundreds of offers - with providers for this - 100% criminal in Russia, of course - service operating with proper high street worksshops not hiding from anyone - in Moscow alone. If you want to get any Russian document which normally requires several in-person visits and thorough checks, done from abroad, you just text a Telegram bot, pay a few hundred bucks (using credit card or paypal - which do not operate in Russia), and get it DHLed to you in days wherever you are in the world. The corruption machine covers entire society and people learned to adapt to it, being comfortable with working around any regulation like fish in the water.
    - jojobas 3y ago
      I'm not talking about published regulations, I'm talking about counterintelligence doing their jobs. Russians/Soviets were always almost dumbfounded at the ease at which they could penetrate very sensitive sources. Apart from the UK and to a lesser degree the US it was a total free-for-all even before the USSR broke up. Fabricated personalities can and do get exposed. There's no point explaining the Russian corruption to me, I lived there for a long time. In this case, however the corruption machine works against Russian agents.
    - gmerc 3y ago
      Nice myth building but Bellingcat exposed an entire generation of GRU agents by noticing their fake passport numbers were sequential. These people are not very smart at all, when you look at recent investigations done on shoestring budgets, many got exposed by extremely simple tradecraft errors and information that can be straight bought from Russian data brokers. These people are not smart, it’s the western European services that are incompetent, ideologically blind and outdated.
      - jojobas 3y ago
        They are not exactly dumb, but they didn't need to be smart given how apathetic European security agencies have been for decades. Of course, Bellingcat barely scratched the surface and mainly exposed glorified hitmen rather than actual influence and information agents. There are still probably thousands of illegals with large amounts of legalized money, wide acquaintance networks and zero interest from who should be on top of their arses.
- valval 3y ago
  Oh yes, it’s not like research says that children of immigrants integrate even worse than their parents.
  - robocat 3y ago
    Citation? Anecdotally in New Zealand, I know plenty of children of immigrants who have done fine. And their parents that don't integrate (sometimes not even speaking English at all).
    - anovikov 3y ago
      Probably they meant that kids of Muslim immigrants become radicalised Muslims while their parents still try to blend in.
  - anovikov 3y ago
    I know plenty of 100% ethnic Russian kids who simply don't speak (usable) Russian when they grow up. Just for studying in a local or English school and integrating well. They can speak Russian on the level of 7-year old at 15, to speak with their grandmother over Skype, but never use it apart from that, replying their parents in English at home and speaking English to each other at school. So this is absolute bs that kids don't integrate well. Communism is nonexistent to them: it's just not on their mind map, many heard nothing about it beyond Reddit "political compass" memes. They see Orthodox Christianity as elaborate even if very boring cosplay. They don't "see" LGBT people simply because they are 100% norm and nothing to pay attention to, no one giggles at gay couples the way we did as kids. Many never been to Russia although they still hold passports simply for having no interest in that country. No negativity too - it's just not their life story.
mikrl 3y ago
>We won't know who of them are "businessmen" AFAIK there isn’t a clean answer to that question. The lines between businessperson, gangster, intelligence agent are very fluid. If you gain some success at one of those in Russia you need to start ingratiating yourself with the others because they will come and find you. It’s like a more brutal version of businessperson / lobbyist in the US. If you want to excel in one you need to be both.
- valval 3y ago
  Spoken like someone who has absolutely no idea what they’re saying.
  - mikrl 3y ago
    I’m not up to date on Russian business culture I admit. Outside of hearing about how you can pay off the police to avoid other protection schemes. Can you give me an example of a prominent Russia based businessperson who is regularly at odds with the Kremlin? The US has a few examples of billionaires who decide to take on the White House, sometimes even capturing it for themselves.
    - sentfromrevolut 3y ago
      [dead]
    - valval 3y ago
      There are plenty, it's a matter of reporting and visibility I suppose.
- jojobas 3y ago
  The businessmen and 'businessmen' I'm talking about are not high-profile creatures like Deripaska. I'm talking small-time business kind of guys who've earned few $ millions in Russia and decided to move their families to Czechia or Austria. They are not big enough to interest the Russian government or even local cops, and there are thousands of them. That's where you hide your agents, not among major oil or metal company owners (or rather custodians). How they operate is well described by defectors. Some maintain wide social circles, focusing on Russian emigrants, rich people in general or some other population, like running a hair salon, a real estate agency, a small hotel or some other front. Some sit quiet and run an errand here and there.

anovikov 3y ago

Well it's a lot better than not letting them leave. Staying in and paying taxes there supports Putin; plus if they knew they are stuck in and can't move to the civilised world, they'd have to develop some sense of belonging with Russia. EU is making everything possible to suck out everyone with half the brain from Russia and this is a good thing. A lot of new immigration programs that appear to be specifically tailored to be convenient for Russians, appeared since the war began. So the logic is to: - make tourism/travel harder by limiting visas and having people fly through far away stopovers (Dubai, Istanbul, or Belgrade for those who can afford $2K economy ticket) - make immigration easier - make any cross-border business harder - no SWIFT, no way to get in Russian IT-related money and most of the money overall even if transfer happens through 3rd world, etc. This way people leave, realise they can't live in 2 countries and have to pick, then realise they can't do cross border business nearly as conveniently as they hoped, so concentrate on local or US market, then realise how much easier it is vs doing business in Russia (all they need to do that is a magic kick to initially force them to), and never look back. Granted, few of them believe in democracy or even opposed to Putin. Mostly they see Europe as "safe place with a system which is easy to game", but that's OK. Their children will integrate and will be different. After all, save for American expats and Hong Kong refugees (who go to UK anyway), these are by far the best kind of immigrants Europe can hope for.

jojobas 3y ago
How about actually vetting them, even if post factum? Bellingcat, The Insider et al uncovered fake identities and actual biographies of agents with a tiny fraction of resources Western security agencies have. It's actually why these agencies get tax money.
- anovikov 3y ago
  Russians, even not GRU spies, are incredibly good at working around any possible regulation. If need be they will come with Kyrgyzstani or some Balkan passports and whole life histories thoroughly faked. Just for lulz. In Russia, if you google (well, yandex) for "make a rubber seal from imprint", you get hundreds of offers - with providers for this - 100% criminal in Russia, of course - service operating with proper high street worksshops not hiding from anyone - in Moscow alone. If you want to get any Russian document which normally requires several in-person visits and thorough checks, done from abroad, you just text a Telegram bot, pay a few hundred bucks (using credit card or paypal - which do not operate in Russia), and get it DHLed to you in days wherever you are in the world. The corruption machine covers entire society and people learned to adapt to it, being comfortable with working around any regulation like fish in the water.
  - jojobas 3y ago
    I'm not talking about published regulations, I'm talking about counterintelligence doing their jobs. Russians/Soviets were always almost dumbfounded at the ease at which they could penetrate very sensitive sources. Apart from the UK and to a lesser degree the US it was a total free-for-all even before the USSR broke up. Fabricated personalities can and do get exposed. There's no point explaining the Russian corruption to me, I lived there for a long time. In this case, however the corruption machine works against Russian agents.
  - gmerc 3y ago
    Nice myth building but Bellingcat exposed an entire generation of GRU agents by noticing their fake passport numbers were sequential. These people are not very smart at all, when you look at recent investigations done on shoestring budgets, many got exposed by extremely simple tradecraft errors and information that can be straight bought from Russian data brokers. These people are not smart, it’s the western European services that are incompetent, ideologically blind and outdated.
    - jojobas 3y ago
      They are not exactly dumb, but they didn't need to be smart given how apathetic European security agencies have been for decades. Of course, Bellingcat barely scratched the surface and mainly exposed glorified hitmen rather than actual influence and information agents. There are still probably thousands of illegals with large amounts of legalized money, wide acquaintance networks and zero interest from who should be on top of their arses.
valval 3y ago
Oh yes, it’s not like research says that children of immigrants integrate even worse than their parents.
- robocat 3y ago
  Citation? Anecdotally in New Zealand, I know plenty of children of immigrants who have done fine. And their parents that don't integrate (sometimes not even speaking English at all).
  - anovikov 3y ago
    Probably they meant that kids of Muslim immigrants become radicalised Muslims while their parents still try to blend in.
- anovikov 3y ago
  I know plenty of 100% ethnic Russian kids who simply don't speak (usable) Russian when they grow up. Just for studying in a local or English school and integrating well. They can speak Russian on the level of 7-year old at 15, to speak with their grandmother over Skype, but never use it apart from that, replying their parents in English at home and speaking English to each other at school. So this is absolute bs that kids don't integrate well. Communism is nonexistent to them: it's just not on their mind map, many heard nothing about it beyond Reddit "political compass" memes. They see Orthodox Christianity as elaborate even if very boring cosplay. They don't "see" LGBT people simply because they are 100% norm and nothing to pay attention to, no one giggles at gay couples the way we did as kids. Many never been to Russia although they still hold passports simply for having no interest in that country. No negativity too - it's just not their life story.

mikrl 3y ago

>We won't know who of them are "businessmen" AFAIK there isn’t a clean answer to that question. The lines between businessperson, gangster, intelligence agent are very fluid. If you gain some success at one of those in Russia you need to start ingratiating yourself with the others because they will come and find you. It’s like a more brutal version of businessperson / lobbyist in the US. If you want to excel in one you need to be both.

valval 3y ago
Spoken like someone who has absolutely no idea what they’re saying.
- mikrl 3y ago
  I’m not up to date on Russian business culture I admit. Outside of hearing about how you can pay off the police to avoid other protection schemes. Can you give me an example of a prominent Russia based businessperson who is regularly at odds with the Kremlin? The US has a few examples of billionaires who decide to take on the White House, sometimes even capturing it for themselves.
  - sentfromrevolut 3y ago
    [dead]
  - valval 3y ago
    There are plenty, it's a matter of reporting and visibility I suppose.
jojobas 3y ago
The businessmen and 'businessmen' I'm talking about are not high-profile creatures like Deripaska. I'm talking small-time business kind of guys who've earned few $ millions in Russia and decided to move their families to Czechia or Austria. They are not big enough to interest the Russian government or even local cops, and there are thousands of them. That's where you hide your agents, not among major oil or metal company owners (or rather custodians). How they operate is well described by defectors. Some maintain wide social circles, focusing on Russian emigrants, rich people in general or some other population, like running a hair salon, a real estate agency, a small hotel or some other front. Some sit quiet and run an errand here and there.