5 ms·

Plunging Home Prices, Fleeing Companies: Austin's Glow Is Fading

29 points by elsewhen 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
arbuge 2y ago
It's a small drop from a pandemic peak that was far above pre-pandemic levels. After this small drop, it's still far above that. And that probably is at least somewhat because of all the apartment building going on, which is a positive thing. One notable company "fled" - Oracle, this week.
- chrisco255 2y ago
  I don't even think I've heard that Oracle is reducing its head count in Austin. There's currently 4200 Oracle employees based in Austin.
  - pm90 2y ago
    I interviewed with them for an Austin based position and they were lowballing really hard on the offer. I suspect the workforce is just too expensive for them now.
    - twojobsoneboss 2y ago
      Were they lowballing or are those salaries just the new market rate?
      - pm90 2y ago
        This was in 2017 before a lot of tech moved to ATX. Back then it was IBM, Rackspace and a few startups + remote folks. Oracles offers were incredulously low even at that time.
        twojobsoneboss 2y ago
        Ah I see
chrisco255 2y ago
Austin fixing its affordability crisis with more housing supply and MSM paints it as a bad thing. ATX is as great as it's ever been. Samsung continues to expand its footprint, Tesla HQ still ramping up production (plus lithium refinery in Corpus), Apple expanding with new 82K sq ft building, and fastest growing startups (by headcount) are based there: https://www.signalfire.com/blog/state-of-talent-tech-trends https://www.signalfire.com/blog/state-of-talent-tech-trends
- refulgentis 2y ago
  I don't know if house prices went down because more houses responds to any more than a small corner of the article, which already mentions this, or how astroturfing an AI search engine corporate blog with innumerable chart crimes is better than "MSM"
  - braunjohnson 2y ago
    [dead]
  - steanne 2y ago
    also possible it was a typo of msn, as that's where the original link is
- ASalazarMX 2y ago
  When atrocities like fractional real state investing (aka house shares, for people who want to rent without buying a whole house) are starting to pop up, it's no wonder some groups keep pushing for rents to go still higher. https://www.vox.com/money/23620847/fractional-real-estate-investing-trend https://www.vox.com/money/23620847/fractional-real-estate-in...
astrange 2y ago
One difficulty of lower-the-rent politics is that if you actually succeed in lowering rents, the news will report it as a bad thing.
- pm90 2y ago
  In this case its housing prices that plunged, not rental rates. Are they correlated?
  - astrange 2y ago
    They aren't always correlated but they are in this case - Austin's rents are down because of new construction. (Which news headlines call "multifamily oversupply".)
- fullshark 2y ago
  That's cause everyone actually wants to own a home that appreciates in value, they just want their entry point to be low.
  - pixl97 2y ago
    Or that at least maintains value so you don't take a massive loss in the case you have to move.
    - rpgwaiter 2y ago
      Idk if your home value went down, the whole market probably did too. So the house you’re trying to get next probably also is on sale.
      - readthenotes1 2y ago
        If you are underwater on the loan then you ain't moving.
  - dools 2y ago
pm90 2y ago
Austin will continue to grow. Texas is the second largest US state by size and economy, and Austin is where the left leaning tech folks generally tend to go when they are considering Texas based opportunities. Personally it feels overhyped. My current favorite Texas city is Houston which is much larger, more affordable and more diverse.
- chrisco255 2y ago
  It's larger to a fault. Houston is so spread out it might as well be 5 different cities you're talking about. Driving in Houston is a nightmare.
  - yowzadave 2y ago
    And the only thing worse thank driving in Houston is walking! It’s easy to find yourself in amid a sea of highways with no real way of walking in or out.
    - ghaff 2y ago
      Dallas, which isn’t quite as bad Houston in this regard, I could almost see the restaurant I wanted to eat at from my hotel, and I had to get in my car and drive there because there was no real way to walk. Mind you it’s not always great in more pedestrian friendly areas but some are worse than others.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Haven’t spent a lot of time there in years but seems a pretty unattractive place (for me) to live in general. Austin would be my choice in TX but would be pretty low overall.
  - MandieD 2y ago
    Houston is practically a state, size and population wise.
- hangonhn 2y ago
  > My current favorite Texas city is Houston which is much larger, more affordable and more diverse. I really feel Houston is one of the most underrated cities in the US. Even if you're left leaning, most of the cities in Texas are too. So if Austin is a consideration it seems reasonable to consider Houston too. I used to live in Dallas and enjoyed my time there. It's also never too far away from any city in the US in terms of flying time. Those three Texas cities are very livable/affordable and people are quite nice.
renewiltord 2y ago
> Home prices have dropped 18% from the pandemic highs seen in May 2022, the most among the 50 largest US metro areas, Redfin data show. Even so, the city ranks as one of the least affordable housing markets. One of the least affordable housing markets has prices drop 18%? That means demand is high and construction is outpacing. That's a huge positive. Austin wasn't for me, but it was clearly booming and it seems it still is. In comparison, on the same metrics zero-construction SF is down 20%. Look for yourself: - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same.
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  > Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same. This is an underappreciated point. As you say, the price in housing that sets the supply-and-demand curve is the monthly payment, not the purchase price. (Except for those who can pay cash, or those who are buying as an investment.)
- w10-1 2y ago
  Investors and owner-occupiers buy for different reasons. Investors are much more sensitive to rates and outlooks. One way to measure investor vs owner impact on prices is speed of sale. While prices are down 3% in SF, house get pending offers in 18 days on average -- much faster than one might expect for owner-occupiers. I'd guess that unless houses are taking 45 days to sell, it's probably an investor-driven market.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
YoshiToranaga 2y ago
[dead]
hi-v-rocknroll 2y ago
Living currently in ATX in an (overpriced) apartment because the housing market went insane about 2018 but still isn't investible. Pros: - You can say you live in ATX - A few interesting local characters still exist - Wide open parks - Many record stores - Infinite choices of tacos - People seem taller and moderately more attractive than elsewhere Neutral: - Everyone has a dog Cons: - Fugly high-rises being slapped together and replacing local anchor establishments - Lots of traffic and perpetual construction - The roads are really bad - Grocery prices went insane - Don't even bother going to a bar. The prices are crazy. Back in my day (grandpa voice), I remember when a bottle of beer on 6th St. was $1.50 in 2003 ($2.55 in 2024 money). SXSW raises that to $10. - Doesn't get visited by every music act - Summers are hot AF. Another El Nino this year means 110 F / 43 C for 4-5 months. It was cloud today and 80 F / 27 C with 66% humidity. - Don't be a woman or have a medical need for an abortion - Don't drink the water. Get an RO system and a water software because the water is bad - Don't live in a flood zone - Don't live on a ground floor or in a home near downtown unless you want unhoused people or addicts stealing your stuff - The average IQ seems below 100: office workers, Airbnb visitors, and conspicuous dumb money moved in from elsewhere - The population has increased greatly but the number of doctors, bookstores, and similar service businesses haven't kept up - Some of the most gerrymandered voting districts in the entire US - Whole Foods HQ store is run by accountants not by foodies: they sell 4 variations of essentially identical conventional pesto but no walnut or kale pesto, and don't sell any form of pita bread. Customer service is really bad. It's a simulacra of its former self pre-Amazon. Thankfully, there is Trader Joe's - Amazon package delivery, DoorDash, Favor, and UberEats fail to deliver reliably. You'll find better service in Ecuador or Czechia If you want reasonable housing, head down to Seguin. Zillions of new homes there for $300k. Amazon delivery and Uber work there too.
- YoshiToranaga 2y ago
  [dead]
phmqk76 2y ago
You mean the brilliant plan of going to the literally middle of nowhere, in a state run by revanchist anti-government lunatics, that alternates between staggering heat and debilitating ice storms, all to escape taxes, didn’t work out as planned? Color me shocked.
- ryan93 2y ago
  there are almost never ice storms here

29 points by elsewhen 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

It's a small drop from a pandemic peak that was far above pre-pandemic levels. After this small drop, it's still far above that. And that probably is at least somewhat because of all the apartment building going on, which is a positive thing. One notable company "fled" - Oracle, this week.

chrisco255 2y ago
I don't even think I've heard that Oracle is reducing its head count in Austin. There's currently 4200 Oracle employees based in Austin.
- pm90 2y ago
  I interviewed with them for an Austin based position and they were lowballing really hard on the offer. I suspect the workforce is just too expensive for them now.
  - twojobsoneboss 2y ago
    Were they lowballing or are those salaries just the new market rate?
    - pm90 2y ago
      This was in 2017 before a lot of tech moved to ATX. Back then it was IBM, Rackspace and a few startups + remote folks. Oracles offers were incredulously low even at that time.
      - twojobsoneboss 2y ago
        Ah I see

chrisco255 2y ago

Austin fixing its affordability crisis with more housing supply and MSM paints it as a bad thing. ATX is as great as it's ever been. Samsung continues to expand its footprint, Tesla HQ still ramping up production (plus lithium refinery in Corpus), Apple expanding with new 82K sq ft building, and fastest growing startups (by headcount) are based there: https://www.signalfire.com/blog/state-of-talent-tech-trends https://www.signalfire.com/blog/state-of-talent-tech-trends

refulgentis 2y ago
I don't know if house prices went down because more houses responds to any more than a small corner of the article, which already mentions this, or how astroturfing an AI search engine corporate blog with innumerable chart crimes is better than "MSM"
- braunjohnson 2y ago
  [dead]
- steanne 2y ago
  also possible it was a typo of msn, as that's where the original link is
ASalazarMX 2y ago
When atrocities like fractional real state investing (aka house shares, for people who want to rent without buying a whole house) are starting to pop up, it's no wonder some groups keep pushing for rents to go still higher. https://www.vox.com/money/23620847/fractional-real-estate-investing-trend https://www.vox.com/money/23620847/fractional-real-estate-in...

astrange 2y ago

One difficulty of lower-the-rent politics is that if you actually succeed in lowering rents, the news will report it as a bad thing.

pm90 2y ago
In this case its housing prices that plunged, not rental rates. Are they correlated?
- astrange 2y ago
  They aren't always correlated but they are in this case - Austin's rents are down because of new construction. (Which news headlines call "multifamily oversupply".)
fullshark 2y ago
That's cause everyone actually wants to own a home that appreciates in value, they just want their entry point to be low.
- pixl97 2y ago
  Or that at least maintains value so you don't take a massive loss in the case you have to move.
  - rpgwaiter 2y ago
    Idk if your home value went down, the whole market probably did too. So the house you’re trying to get next probably also is on sale.
    - readthenotes1 2y ago
      If you are underwater on the loan then you ain't moving.
- dools 2y ago

pm90 2y ago

Austin will continue to grow. Texas is the second largest US state by size and economy, and Austin is where the left leaning tech folks generally tend to go when they are considering Texas based opportunities. Personally it feels overhyped. My current favorite Texas city is Houston which is much larger, more affordable and more diverse.

chrisco255 2y ago
It's larger to a fault. Houston is so spread out it might as well be 5 different cities you're talking about. Driving in Houston is a nightmare.
- yowzadave 2y ago
  And the only thing worse thank driving in Houston is walking! It’s easy to find yourself in amid a sea of highways with no real way of walking in or out.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Dallas, which isn’t quite as bad Houston in this regard, I could almost see the restaurant I wanted to eat at from my hotel, and I had to get in my car and drive there because there was no real way to walk. Mind you it’s not always great in more pedestrian friendly areas but some are worse than others.
- ghaff 2y ago
  Haven’t spent a lot of time there in years but seems a pretty unattractive place (for me) to live in general. Austin would be my choice in TX but would be pretty low overall.
- MandieD 2y ago
  Houston is practically a state, size and population wise.
hangonhn 2y ago
> My current favorite Texas city is Houston which is much larger, more affordable and more diverse. I really feel Houston is one of the most underrated cities in the US. Even if you're left leaning, most of the cities in Texas are too. So if Austin is a consideration it seems reasonable to consider Houston too. I used to live in Dallas and enjoyed my time there. It's also never too far away from any city in the US in terms of flying time. Those three Texas cities are very livable/affordable and people are quite nice.

renewiltord 2y ago

> Home prices have dropped 18% from the pandemic highs seen in May 2022, the most among the 50 largest US metro areas, Redfin data show. Even so, the city ranks as one of the least affordable housing markets. One of the least affordable housing markets has prices drop 18%? That means demand is high and construction is outpacing. That's a huge positive. Austin wasn't for me, but it was clearly booming and it seems it still is. In comparison, on the same metrics zero-construction SF is down 20%. Look for yourself: - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
> Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same. This is an underappreciated point. As you say, the price in housing that sets the supply-and-demand curve is the monthly payment, not the purchase price. (Except for those who can pay cash, or those who are buying as an investment.)
w10-1 2y ago
Investors and owner-occupiers buy for different reasons. Investors are much more sensitive to rates and outlooks. One way to measure investor vs owner impact on prices is speed of sale. While prices are down 3% in SF, house get pending offers in 18 days on average -- much faster than one might expect for owner-occupiers. I'd guess that unless houses are taking 45 days to sell, it's probably an investor-driven market.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

YoshiToranaga 2y ago

[dead]

hi-v-rocknroll 2y ago

Living currently in ATX in an (overpriced) apartment because the housing market went insane about 2018 but still isn't investible. Pros: - You can say you live in ATX - A few interesting local characters still exist - Wide open parks - Many record stores - Infinite choices of tacos - People seem taller and moderately more attractive than elsewhere Neutral: - Everyone has a dog Cons: - Fugly high-rises being slapped together and replacing local anchor establishments - Lots of traffic and perpetual construction - The roads are really bad - Grocery prices went insane - Don't even bother going to a bar. The prices are crazy. Back in my day (grandpa voice), I remember when a bottle of beer on 6th St. was $1.50 in 2003 ($2.55 in 2024 money). SXSW raises that to $10. - Doesn't get visited by every music act - Summers are hot AF. Another El Nino this year means 110 F / 43 C for 4-5 months. It was cloud today and 80 F / 27 C with 66% humidity. - Don't be a woman or have a medical need for an abortion - Don't drink the water. Get an RO system and a water software because the water is bad - Don't live in a flood zone - Don't live on a ground floor or in a home near downtown unless you want unhoused people or addicts stealing your stuff - The average IQ seems below 100: office workers, Airbnb visitors, and conspicuous dumb money moved in from elsewhere - The population has increased greatly but the number of doctors, bookstores, and similar service businesses haven't kept up - Some of the most gerrymandered voting districts in the entire US - Whole Foods HQ store is run by accountants not by foodies: they sell 4 variations of essentially identical conventional pesto but no walnut or kale pesto, and don't sell any form of pita bread. Customer service is really bad. It's a simulacra of its former self pre-Amazon. Thankfully, there is Trader Joe's - Amazon package delivery, DoorDash, Favor, and UberEats fail to deliver reliably. You'll find better service in Ecuador or Czechia If you want reasonable housing, head down to Seguin. Zillions of new homes there for $300k. Amazon delivery and Uber work there too.

YoshiToranaga 2y ago
[dead]

phmqk76 2y ago

You mean the brilliant plan of going to the literally middle of nowhere, in a state run by revanchist anti-government lunatics, that alternates between staggering heat and debilitating ice storms, all to escape taxes, didn’t work out as planned? Color me shocked.

ryan93 2y ago
there are almost never ice storms here