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There are alternatives beyond "do nothing". For example, reducing vehicle-mile demand through better development patterns, or widespread adoption of the dramati
by jeffbee 3y ago
There are alternatives beyond "do nothing". For example, reducing vehicle-mile demand through better development patterns, or widespread adoption of the dramatically more efficient electric bicycle.
- oefrha 3y agoSimply spending $20B is like at least two orders of magnitude easier than any of your proposed alternatives in this country.
- Tagbert 3y agowhy don't we just build giant Arcologies and move everyone into them. easy. /s
- rickydroll 3y agoA terrestrial version of Ark B??
- jeffbee 3y agoConverting the state to EVs also costs 100x more than $20 billion because you are ignoring the trillions it will cost to replace the ICE fleet.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoThat's money you're spending anyways over a 20 year period. Approximately 0% of daily driven cars are > 20 years old.
- jeffbee 3y agoIf by 0% you meant 23%, then yes. https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2024/02/average-age-of-cars-trucks/#:~:text=About%2023%25%20of%20all%20passenger,19%25%20and%2020%25%20respectively https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2024/02/average-age-of-cars-t.... And you only need to spend that 1-2 trillion dollars if you insist on perpetuating car dependence. You are not "spending it anyway". It is an opportunity cost that you could spend on a better world instead.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoI said "daily drivers". A vintage car parked in a garage and used twice a year isn't relevant.
- jeffbee 3y agoA 2002 Corolla is not a vintage car. The amount of going outside and looking around you are admitting to avoiding is pretty remarkable.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoNobody is putting 50,000 miles a year on a 2002 Corolla.
- jeffbee 3y agoNobody is putting that many miles on any car. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
- floatrock 3y agoAll for orange-pilling the water supply, but grid modernization isn't just for EVs. Lots of other benefits as well like replacing fossil fuel heating with more heat pump penetration, and making things handle the variable energy flows from putting more storage on the grid, which to be frank, is needed to continue adding solar at CA's stage of solar development. A grid designed for the centralized coal/gas plant era doesn't work as well in the era of distributed resources. EV's are just sexiest way this shows up.
- nostrademons 3y ago$20B is about 10,000 homes at typical CA prices, including infrastructure, or less than one small-sized city. It's significantly cheaper to spend that to upgrade the grid for EVs than to re-do how our cities are laid out. California Forever, the real estate developer that's planning a new city in Solano County, has already dropped $900M on the land plus another $700M or so on incentives for the county to greenlight them, and they're still facing local political opposition and haven't even broken ground. Electric bikes are good options for single commuters in their 20s, but have a lot of practical problems as primary transportation for families. I can't really pick up my kids from daycare on an e-Bike, or schlep a car full of groceries from Costco.
- jeffbee 3y agoMy day care has basically devolved into a contest to see who can carry the most kids on an e-bike. Your town is just behind the curve. As for the costs of development, you have made a common error. 20 billion in public infrastructure can't be compared with 20 billion in private construction activity. 99%+ of construction is privately funded. In my county, which is only the 7th-largest in California, private parties undertook $28 billion in construction in 2023, and this was considered a very slow year for construction.