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I am baffled that any thoughtful person would take a CEO statement at face value without considering incentives. 1) prior to bill passage, convincing the publi

I am baffled that any thoughtful person would take a CEO statement at face value without considering incentives. 1) prior to bill passage, convincing the public that they will pull out is optimal as it helps argue against bill, regardless of whether it is at all true 2) but, after bill passage, the incentives are totally different. Pulling out means giving up a billion dollar market that could instead have been sold. The shareholders would be livid. So I am very skeptical. I have heard CEOs say many things they later were found to clearly never have meant seriously, simply because it was what they needed to say at the time. Like, "we would never do outsourcing or layoffs, your division is totally safe".... I would think thoughtful HN readers would be just a little less credulous

takeda 2y ago
Exactly, if they pull out it only means that the fear that it was meant only for propaganda was well justified.
- Thiez 2y ago
  That does not follow at all. Perhaps they simply don't want to spin off a future competitor, and decide that selling simply isn't worth that future risk.
  - galdosdi 2y ago
    That would be delusional, since TikTok's success is due to first-mover advantage due to network effects, not any hard to replicate technology or other real moat. They can imagine otherwise but that is just stroking their own egos. They were the first popular short-form algorithmic addictive feed app. Anyone can make one now (YT Shorts, Insta Reels, etc), there's no secret sauce anymore like there may have been years ago. But TikTok stays number one because they were number one -- network effects. If they disappear, a new competitor takes over and is just as strong as they were. All the value is in the niche, not the occupant of the niche. It really would be like they're giving it away instead of at least collecting a few billion cash for it. It would be monumentally stupid. They'd get the future competitor just as much whether they sell or not.

takeda 2y ago

Exactly, if they pull out it only means that the fear that it was meant only for propaganda was well justified.

Thiez 2y ago
That does not follow at all. Perhaps they simply don't want to spin off a future competitor, and decide that selling simply isn't worth that future risk.
- galdosdi 2y ago
  That would be delusional, since TikTok's success is due to first-mover advantage due to network effects, not any hard to replicate technology or other real moat. They can imagine otherwise but that is just stroking their own egos. They were the first popular short-form algorithmic addictive feed app. Anyone can make one now (YT Shorts, Insta Reels, etc), there's no secret sauce anymore like there may have been years ago. But TikTok stays number one because they were number one -- network effects. If they disappear, a new competitor takes over and is just as strong as they were. All the value is in the niche, not the occupant of the niche. It really would be like they're giving it away instead of at least collecting a few billion cash for it. It would be monumentally stupid. They'd get the future competitor just as much whether they sell or not.