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The article mentions absolutely nothing about this, but what about the security plan? This is going to sound snarky, but I genuinely look forward to how this o

The article mentions absolutely nothing about this, but what about the security plan? This is going to sound snarky, but I genuinely look forward to how this operates with the current state of the Mexico government, lawlessness, cartels, and in that particular area, insurgents. Bad actors are not going to simply ignore the value, there. I would really love to see Mexico become a rich country with a functional and less-corrupt government/military/law enforcement. That seems insurmountable within a generation, though.

bhhaskin 3y ago
Insurance companies aren't going to want to touch that with a 10 foot pole.
- iso8859-1 3y ago
  Simply not true. You can buy insurance for cargo to/from Mexico shipment right now on https://exfreight.com/ https://exfreight.com/ . Powered by Haskell. Parcels, LCL, FCL, you name it.
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    Insurance companies have dealt with much worse; they got their start insuring ships trying to make the hazardous journey to the Far East.
pstuart 3y ago
> I would really love to see Mexico become a rich country with a functional and less-corrupt government/military/law enforcement. That seems insurmountable within a generation, though. Amen to that. That will never happen as long as we continue The War on Drugs™ -- and that appears to be an impossible habit to kick.
- runjake 3y ago
  The War on Drugs is a failed strategy, but I don't know of another way to tackle the problem of drugs and geography, WRT the US. Decriminalizing hard drugs has been a failed experiment in Oregon, where hard drug use shot up drastically.
  - GenerWork 3y ago
    >Decriminalizing hard drugs has been a failed experiment in Oregon, where hard drug use shot up drastically. Is the problem the increased usage, or is it the secondary effects (more homelessness, etc)?
    - runjake 3y ago
      I think both, but increased usage + new addictions were specifically cited by the legislation[1] and government officials. The uptick in prevalence of homeless people in the suburban and urban areas is startling though. 1. https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2024R1/Measures/Overview/HB4002 https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2024R1/Measures/Overv...
    - UncleOxidant 3y ago
      Oregonian here. Both, I think. However homelessness increased everywhere over the same period the legalization covered so it's kind of hard to gauge how much legalization actually increased it. The problem was that there was no way to compel people into treatment for addiction when the drugs were essentially legal. There was an attempt to replicate what Portugal had done in the early aughts, but as I understand it they could compel people into treatment. The other problem was lack of treatment resources - even if people wanted treatment it could be difficult to come by. While I tended to favor decriminalization before, after seeing the results close up it seems that there should have been a longer period of preparation prior to the enacting legalization. And for substances like fetanyl and meth - highly addictive substances that cause people to resort to crime to keep up the habit - it's probably not be a good idea to ever legalize them because overdosing, death and permanent mental damage are common. We need a more nuanced approach where less addictive (and non-addictive) drugs like pot, LSD, shrooms, etc. are essentially legal while highly addictive drugs remain illegal with stiff penalties for distribution.
- nradov 3y ago
  While the war on drugs has largely been a failure, it's too late for US drug policy changes to bring down the Mexican cartels. Even if the US government completely legalized all drugs (not something I necessarily support) the cartels would remain. Mexico is a failed state where the central government no longer even tries to exercise control over large parts of their nominal territory.
yonaguska 3y ago
As long as the right cartels are able to skim value, I could see this being successful regardless. Cartels are businesses at the end of the day- and they won't totally destroy an industry as long as it's making them money long term. The problems occur when smaller groups start fighting over access to the resources.
- runjake 3y ago
  That's one of the many problems with cartels: they fight over control of valuable resources. Occasionally a single cartel gets a firm hold onto something and right about then, the US government swoops in to decapitate the leadership, re-initiating a war. I.e. What happened with CDS and CJNG after El Chapo's extradition to the US. Also, if a certain skim percentage becomes acceptable loss to all parties, the cartels will want more.
  - SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
    Oh those poor drug lords.
iso8859-1 3y ago
Morena is slated to win the election in June because of the perception that infrastructure projects are getting done. Sheinbaum will want to get re-elected, and if the railway gets robbed that will be difficult. It's a lot easier to protect a railway than to create a good civil society with jobs for millions of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastructure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastr...
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  Whether it be by demographics, credit collapse, Taiwan invastion, or just authoritarian incompetence, the world and especially the US are moving away from China-centric manufacturing. The US needs to get its drug war policy in line, but so much is on the line that I think the cartels are going to become a point of "special emphasis" in the coming decade. Mexico is going to become the center of manufacturing for the US in all likelihood. The cartel/drug civil war will come to an end as part of a broad sweep of investment and interest by the United States. I just don't see the cartels maintaining their political/corruption power when the stakes become so much higher. The cartels either need to legitimize, or they'll probably get a healthy dose of US military forces attention and be ground to dust.
- sofixa 3y ago
  For those not intimately familiar with Mexican politics: Morena is a political party (according to Wikipedia, "left wing and anti-neoliberal"). The current president of Mexico is from them Sheinbaum is the current governor of Mexico city, and candidate and frontrunner for the upcoming presidential elections. Note: Mexico doesn't do presidential reelections - even temporary holders of the post can never run for or hold it again. They had a number of civil wars and related fights around this so it's taken very seriously.

bhhaskin 3y ago

Insurance companies aren't going to want to touch that with a 10 foot pole.

iso8859-1 3y ago
Simply not true. You can buy insurance for cargo to/from Mexico shipment right now on https://exfreight.com/ https://exfreight.com/ . Powered by Haskell. Parcels, LCL, FCL, you name it.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  Insurance companies have dealt with much worse; they got their start insuring ships trying to make the hazardous journey to the Far East.

pstuart 3y ago

> I would really love to see Mexico become a rich country with a functional and less-corrupt government/military/law enforcement. That seems insurmountable within a generation, though. Amen to that. That will never happen as long as we continue The War on Drugs™ -- and that appears to be an impossible habit to kick.

runjake 3y ago
The War on Drugs is a failed strategy, but I don't know of another way to tackle the problem of drugs and geography, WRT the US. Decriminalizing hard drugs has been a failed experiment in Oregon, where hard drug use shot up drastically.
- GenerWork 3y ago
  >Decriminalizing hard drugs has been a failed experiment in Oregon, where hard drug use shot up drastically. Is the problem the increased usage, or is it the secondary effects (more homelessness, etc)?
  - runjake 3y ago
    I think both, but increased usage + new addictions were specifically cited by the legislation[1] and government officials. The uptick in prevalence of homeless people in the suburban and urban areas is startling though. 1. https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2024R1/Measures/Overview/HB4002 https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2024R1/Measures/Overv...
  - UncleOxidant 3y ago
    Oregonian here. Both, I think. However homelessness increased everywhere over the same period the legalization covered so it's kind of hard to gauge how much legalization actually increased it. The problem was that there was no way to compel people into treatment for addiction when the drugs were essentially legal. There was an attempt to replicate what Portugal had done in the early aughts, but as I understand it they could compel people into treatment. The other problem was lack of treatment resources - even if people wanted treatment it could be difficult to come by. While I tended to favor decriminalization before, after seeing the results close up it seems that there should have been a longer period of preparation prior to the enacting legalization. And for substances like fetanyl and meth - highly addictive substances that cause people to resort to crime to keep up the habit - it's probably not be a good idea to ever legalize them because overdosing, death and permanent mental damage are common. We need a more nuanced approach where less addictive (and non-addictive) drugs like pot, LSD, shrooms, etc. are essentially legal while highly addictive drugs remain illegal with stiff penalties for distribution.
nradov 3y ago
While the war on drugs has largely been a failure, it's too late for US drug policy changes to bring down the Mexican cartels. Even if the US government completely legalized all drugs (not something I necessarily support) the cartels would remain. Mexico is a failed state where the central government no longer even tries to exercise control over large parts of their nominal territory.

yonaguska 3y ago

As long as the right cartels are able to skim value, I could see this being successful regardless. Cartels are businesses at the end of the day- and they won't totally destroy an industry as long as it's making them money long term. The problems occur when smaller groups start fighting over access to the resources.

runjake 3y ago
That's one of the many problems with cartels: they fight over control of valuable resources. Occasionally a single cartel gets a firm hold onto something and right about then, the US government swoops in to decapitate the leadership, re-initiating a war. I.e. What happened with CDS and CJNG after El Chapo's extradition to the US. Also, if a certain skim percentage becomes acceptable loss to all parties, the cartels will want more.
- SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
  Oh those poor drug lords.

iso8859-1 3y ago

Morena is slated to win the election in June because of the perception that infrastructure projects are getting done. Sheinbaum will want to get re-elected, and if the railway gets robbed that will be difficult. It's a lot easier to protect a railway than to create a good civil society with jobs for millions of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastructure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastr...

AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Whether it be by demographics, credit collapse, Taiwan invastion, or just authoritarian incompetence, the world and especially the US are moving away from China-centric manufacturing. The US needs to get its drug war policy in line, but so much is on the line that I think the cartels are going to become a point of "special emphasis" in the coming decade. Mexico is going to become the center of manufacturing for the US in all likelihood. The cartel/drug civil war will come to an end as part of a broad sweep of investment and interest by the United States. I just don't see the cartels maintaining their political/corruption power when the stakes become so much higher. The cartels either need to legitimize, or they'll probably get a healthy dose of US military forces attention and be ground to dust.
sofixa 3y ago
For those not intimately familiar with Mexican politics: Morena is a political party (according to Wikipedia, "left wing and anti-neoliberal"). The current president of Mexico is from them Sheinbaum is the current governor of Mexico city, and candidate and frontrunner for the upcoming presidential elections. Note: Mexico doesn't do presidential reelections - even temporary holders of the post can never run for or hold it again. They had a number of civil wars and related fights around this so it's taken very seriously.