6 ms·

I kinda wonder what will happen to TSLA if Musk were to just _walk away_. Which, to be clear, he can. And whether that'd be a net positive to "Tesla's largest r

by ein0p 3y ago

I kinda wonder what will happen to TSLA if Musk were to just _walk away_. Which, to be clear, he can. And whether that'd be a net positive to "Tesla's largest retail shareholder".

pstuart 3y ago
I think they'd be better for it at this point. 1. Musk has destroyed the brand for many of their potential customers (who tend to be "liberal") 2. He no longer will force the company to pursue foolish distractions like the CyberTruck.
- ein0p 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - CogitoCogito 3y ago
    Do you invest your life’s savings every time you believe a certain security will increase in value?
    - ein0p 3y ago
      No. I’m more aware of my own cognitive biases. “Smart people full of doubt” and all that.
      - CogitoCogito 3y ago
        Are you implying that others commenting here are unaware of their cognitive biases? What leads you to believe that?
        ein0p 3y ago
        Their unwavering belief that Musk’s shitposting on Twitter will somehow affect anything IRL outside the increasingly insular US based neoliberal bubble.
  - gamblor956 3y ago
    If I knew when Musk was going to announce he's immediately leaving TSLA, I would. Stock would pop 100% within seconds. But that would be insider trading.
bdcravens 3y ago
TSLA the stock would probably dip and then recover as investors realize Musk's whims would no longer influence the stock price. Tesla the company would be fine, and I presume a giant merger would occur in the future.
- sidibe 3y ago
  Elon leaving would be good for the company fundamentally but it will be quickly revalued like a car company which will be disastrous for shareholders.
  - bdcravens 3y ago
    Tesla is more than a car company, selling solar, home batteries, and auto charging infrastructure. That said, every company at some point has to be valued intrinsically.
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      If you look at the financials, Tesla is pretty much only a car company.
      - bdcravens 3y ago
        By 2030, they will have $6-12B a year in revenue from their charging network. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/tesla-to-earn-billions-from-charging-partnerships-with-ford-others.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/tesla-to-earn-billions-from-... They are hitting over $1B a quarter in solar battery revenue, a business growing faster than their EV division https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/tesla-s-battery-business-growth-set-to-outpace-evs-this-year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/tesla-s-b... EVs sales is still the lion's share of revenue, but any of these divisions could be a stand-alone business. (maybe not the solar panels, which hasn't done well at all)
        pclmulqdq 3y ago
dmitrygr 3y ago
I’d be selling GM and Ford stock then. Cause Tesla would crush them without the distraction of Musk
toomuchtodo 3y ago
Makes room for JB Straubel to return. Roll Tesla up with Redwood Materials and keep scaling up with an adult having both technical acumen and empathy in charge.
srackey 3y ago
[flagged]
- MOARDONGZPLZ 3y ago
  Musk has done well with Tesla historically. But by dropping the plans for the low cost Tesla and pushing the Cybertruck, and focusing most of his time on Twitter, it doesn’t seem wrong that people are suggesting Tesla would be better without him. The stock is below its 1 Year low and if the losses keep up at the same rate they have for the next 2-3 weeks, and it seems like they will given the dismal earnings call and consistent bad news coming out, such as the physical recall of all Cybertrucks, the stock is likely to trend down to at least its three year low. If you’re comparing Jobs in 2005 to Musk now, you’re saying the Cybertruck is Musk’s iPhone. The thing looks cool (I think, very subjectively), but has been a pretty big failure.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
geodel 3y ago
He can't just walk away. He better be driving that cyber truck with 3000 dollars cyber tent professionally installed at full speed while leaving the company.
nateglims 3y ago
I'm not a fan of musk, but I think the fundamentals have turned on Tesla. Cheaper chinese EVs are coming out in two of the biggest 3 markets and traditional auto makers are catching up in the US. A replacement level CEO would probably be making similar decisions.
- nyokodo 3y ago
  > Cheaper chinese EVs are coming out in two of the biggest 3 markets I expect this to be ephemeral due to geopolitics and the local politics. Chinese domestic consumption is lackluster compared to their production and they are “product dumping” on the rest of the world that have domestic manufacturing and varying levels of preexisting market protectionism. That and China’s belligerent geopolitical alliance increasingly clashing with the West and in their regions means that stiff(er) tariffs are imminent.
  - nateglims 3y ago
    Outside of maybe the UK, I don't think Europe is nearly as dead set on the adversarial relationship with China and you can't buy retail Chinese EVs right now in the US. The demand reduction is also a problem for Tesla. But one thing Chinese EV companies have is existing products in the lowest market segments. Tesla is giving up on a car cheaper than the 3 and I don't think that's a particularly unique Musk decision. American public companies are allergic to low margin products.
    - ein0p 3y ago
      >> I don't think Europe is nearly as dead set on the adversarial relationship with China They will be “persuaded” with sanctions. Europe is not really a sovereign entity.
      - nateglims 3y ago
        The US is only really deploying broad sanctions on technology that might have applications in military and security competition. And sanctions are proving hard to really enforce if the entities involved never use dollars. EU defense and government contractors might not have a lot of agency, but plenty of other businesses do depending on the country.
yumraj 3y ago
First of all, he’s not going to walk away. He can’t. He knows if he does the stock price will drop and his net worth will drop and given his mess in Twitter/X it’ll further screw’s him up. His entire thing about this is so that he can maintain his richest person in the world status, nothing more. So, no, he’s not really walking away. But, even if he does, depending on who they get, it might be a net positive for Tesla in the long run.
gandalfian 3y ago
"I kinda wonder what will happen to TSLA if Musk were to just _walk away" Merge with Toyota, sort out reparability issues, slap ten year warranty on cars and put up prices 15%. Dominate the profitable middle of the market as production costs fall and mint money while everyone else is left scrabbling at the bottom of the market.
frognumber 3y ago
I think, at a $55B price tag, yes, it would be a net positive for shareholders. I think the other question is how likely he would be to walk away. I think at $0, Musk would likely stick it out at Tesla, since so much of his net worth, ego, identity, and brand is locked up in there. In other words, this seems like a bluff.
- more_corn 3y ago
  He has twit x and space x. That should be enough for his identity. And he wouldn’t be forced to sell his Tesla holdings. He’s been threatening to take his bat and ball and go home for a while. I’m curious how it would go. It could actually be good for Tesla to be freed from his whimsical decrees (a friend of mine works there and his mercurial nature gives the company whiplash) and it could be good for him to think he has to start something new. He seems to think he can do a lot of good ai work. Maybe he can.
  - frognumber 3y ago
    Good point. If history is any indicator, he seems strongest at mid-stage companies. He didn't start Tesla. He isn't doing well there right now (or Twitter, for that matter). He's too erratic for a mature company. But he did an awesome job taking Tesla from the $M to the $B stage. Any company at that stage would also benefit from the visibility he brings. For smaller players, any press is good press.
george-in-sd 3y ago
Musk is the soul of Tesla for better or worse. Tesla currently has a market cap 10x greater than Ford ... if Musk leaves, sanity returns and Tesla would drop dramatically.
- more_corn 3y ago
  Good?

by ein0p 3y ago

I kinda wonder what will happen to TSLA if Musk were to just _walk away_. Which, to be clear, he can. And whether that'd be a net positive to "Tesla's largest retail shareholder".

pstuart 3y ago

I think they'd be better for it at this point. 1. Musk has destroyed the brand for many of their potential customers (who tend to be "liberal") 2. He no longer will force the company to pursue foolish distractions like the CyberTruck.

ein0p 3y ago
[flagged]
- CogitoCogito 3y ago
  Do you invest your life’s savings every time you believe a certain security will increase in value?
  - ein0p 3y ago
    No. I’m more aware of my own cognitive biases. “Smart people full of doubt” and all that.
    - CogitoCogito 3y ago
      Are you implying that others commenting here are unaware of their cognitive biases? What leads you to believe that?
      - ein0p 3y ago
        Their unwavering belief that Musk’s shitposting on Twitter will somehow affect anything IRL outside the increasingly insular US based neoliberal bubble.
- gamblor956 3y ago
  If I knew when Musk was going to announce he's immediately leaving TSLA, I would. Stock would pop 100% within seconds. But that would be insider trading.

bdcravens 3y ago

TSLA the stock would probably dip and then recover as investors realize Musk's whims would no longer influence the stock price. Tesla the company would be fine, and I presume a giant merger would occur in the future.

sidibe 3y ago
Elon leaving would be good for the company fundamentally but it will be quickly revalued like a car company which will be disastrous for shareholders.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Tesla is more than a car company, selling solar, home batteries, and auto charging infrastructure. That said, every company at some point has to be valued intrinsically.
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    If you look at the financials, Tesla is pretty much only a car company.
    - bdcravens 3y ago
      By 2030, they will have $6-12B a year in revenue from their charging network. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/tesla-to-earn-billions-from-charging-partnerships-with-ford-others.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/tesla-to-earn-billions-from-... They are hitting over $1B a quarter in solar battery revenue, a business growing faster than their EV division https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/tesla-s-battery-business-growth-set-to-outpace-evs-this-year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/tesla-s-b... EVs sales is still the lion's share of revenue, but any of these divisions could be a stand-alone business. (maybe not the solar panels, which hasn't done well at all)
      - pclmulqdq 3y ago

dmitrygr 3y ago

I’d be selling GM and Ford stock then. Cause Tesla would crush them without the distraction of Musk

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Makes room for JB Straubel to return. Roll Tesla up with Redwood Materials and keep scaling up with an adult having both technical acumen and empathy in charge.

srackey 3y ago

[flagged]

MOARDONGZPLZ 3y ago
Musk has done well with Tesla historically. But by dropping the plans for the low cost Tesla and pushing the Cybertruck, and focusing most of his time on Twitter, it doesn’t seem wrong that people are suggesting Tesla would be better without him. The stock is below its 1 Year low and if the losses keep up at the same rate they have for the next 2-3 weeks, and it seems like they will given the dismal earnings call and consistent bad news coming out, such as the physical recall of all Cybertrucks, the stock is likely to trend down to at least its three year low. If you’re comparing Jobs in 2005 to Musk now, you’re saying the Cybertruck is Musk’s iPhone. The thing looks cool (I think, very subjectively), but has been a pretty big failure.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

geodel 3y ago

He can't just walk away. He better be driving that cyber truck with 3000 dollars cyber tent professionally installed at full speed while leaving the company.

nateglims 3y ago

I'm not a fan of musk, but I think the fundamentals have turned on Tesla. Cheaper chinese EVs are coming out in two of the biggest 3 markets and traditional auto makers are catching up in the US. A replacement level CEO would probably be making similar decisions.

nyokodo 3y ago
> Cheaper chinese EVs are coming out in two of the biggest 3 markets I expect this to be ephemeral due to geopolitics and the local politics. Chinese domestic consumption is lackluster compared to their production and they are “product dumping” on the rest of the world that have domestic manufacturing and varying levels of preexisting market protectionism. That and China’s belligerent geopolitical alliance increasingly clashing with the West and in their regions means that stiff(er) tariffs are imminent.
- nateglims 3y ago
  Outside of maybe the UK, I don't think Europe is nearly as dead set on the adversarial relationship with China and you can't buy retail Chinese EVs right now in the US. The demand reduction is also a problem for Tesla. But one thing Chinese EV companies have is existing products in the lowest market segments. Tesla is giving up on a car cheaper than the 3 and I don't think that's a particularly unique Musk decision. American public companies are allergic to low margin products.
  - ein0p 3y ago
    >> I don't think Europe is nearly as dead set on the adversarial relationship with China They will be “persuaded” with sanctions. Europe is not really a sovereign entity.
    - nateglims 3y ago
      The US is only really deploying broad sanctions on technology that might have applications in military and security competition. And sanctions are proving hard to really enforce if the entities involved never use dollars. EU defense and government contractors might not have a lot of agency, but plenty of other businesses do depending on the country.

yumraj 3y ago

First of all, he’s not going to walk away. He can’t. He knows if he does the stock price will drop and his net worth will drop and given his mess in Twitter/X it’ll further screw’s him up. His entire thing about this is so that he can maintain his richest person in the world status, nothing more. So, no, he’s not really walking away. But, even if he does, depending on who they get, it might be a net positive for Tesla in the long run.

gandalfian 3y ago

"I kinda wonder what will happen to TSLA if Musk were to just _walk away" Merge with Toyota, sort out reparability issues, slap ten year warranty on cars and put up prices 15%. Dominate the profitable middle of the market as production costs fall and mint money while everyone else is left scrabbling at the bottom of the market.

frognumber 3y ago

I think, at a $55B price tag, yes, it would be a net positive for shareholders. I think the other question is how likely he would be to walk away. I think at $0, Musk would likely stick it out at Tesla, since so much of his net worth, ego, identity, and brand is locked up in there. In other words, this seems like a bluff.

more_corn 3y ago
He has twit x and space x. That should be enough for his identity. And he wouldn’t be forced to sell his Tesla holdings. He’s been threatening to take his bat and ball and go home for a while. I’m curious how it would go. It could actually be good for Tesla to be freed from his whimsical decrees (a friend of mine works there and his mercurial nature gives the company whiplash) and it could be good for him to think he has to start something new. He seems to think he can do a lot of good ai work. Maybe he can.
- frognumber 3y ago
  Good point. If history is any indicator, he seems strongest at mid-stage companies. He didn't start Tesla. He isn't doing well there right now (or Twitter, for that matter). He's too erratic for a mature company. But he did an awesome job taking Tesla from the $M to the $B stage. Any company at that stage would also benefit from the visibility he brings. For smaller players, any press is good press.

george-in-sd 3y ago

Musk is the soul of Tesla for better or worse. Tesla currently has a market cap 10x greater than Ford ... if Musk leaves, sanity returns and Tesla would drop dramatically.

more_corn 3y ago
Good?