4 ms·

Los Angeles is using an AI program to predict homelessness

16 points by lxm 3y ago

zer00eyz 3y ago
You know how you fix homelessness. You build houses. You know why Houston Texas has done better than CA why nordic countries do better than the US. Housing first. Because investments in homelessness that dont include homes are just perverse incentives to not fix the problem.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Texas overall generally does well on homelessness because being homeless in Texas sucks and Greyhound bus tickets really aren't that expensive. They even give release cons open bus tickets if they don't have anyone picking them up. It isn't weird to find out some guy who was caught sleeping in someone's basement in Seattle was just released from a Texas prison two weeks ago. If you want to solve your local homelessness problem, just make your city sucky to homeless in. Conversely, if you find yourself homeless, move to a city that is giving homes to homeless (housing first), and/or has the best social services. Without a residency system in place, any American can get social services in any city that is offering it, there is rarely any residency requirements (although there is something for HUD). For a city, if their homeless numbers go up, it can indicate that you are actually doing a good job, rather than a poor one. The only issue is that local resources being applied to a national problem without residency restrictions is not going to be sustainable for obvious reasons.
  - zer00eyz 3y ago
    Houston spent years putting together a solid program that worked: https://www.governing.com/housing/how-houston-cut-its-homeless-population-by-nearly-two-thirds https://www.governing.com/housing/how-houston-cut-its-homele... or... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-houston-successfully-reduced-homelessness/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-houston-successfully-reduce... It's pretty much the same program that nordic countries have had for decades. And there aren't any bus tickets involved. > released from a Texas prison two weeks ago. Parole is common for more of them than not. Leaving the sate for Seattle would be a no no in may cases. You want to make this statement you have GOT to bring some receipts on it.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      See https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/faq/pd.html https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/faq/pd.html > Can inmates be supervised in other states? Yes. Texas has an agreement with other states, the District of Colombia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands to send and receive inmates for supervision. It is called the Interstate Compact for Adult Offender Supervision. Inmates approved to reside in other states must obey the rules of both Texas and the supervising state. And > What is “gate money”? Gate money is $50.00 and a bus ticket provided to the released inmate on parole or mandatory supervision by the Correctional Institutions Division to help with transportation to the community to which they are being paroled to. They will receive an additional $50.00 upon reporting to their parole office. End quote Also, if you don’t have an address to parole out to, you simply don’t get parole and you are relaxed at the end of your sentence. These days the prisons want to get rid of you as quickly as possible, though, so they’ll make it work even if the only choice is to head to LA, SF, Portland, or Seattle.
      - zer00eyz 3y ago
        >> Inmates approved >> Gate money is $50.00 and a bus ticket provided to the released inmate on parole or mandatory supervision You have some deep fundamental misunderstanding of what parole is, and how it works. Statistics FY 2021 Number of Texas parolees supervised out-of-state: 2,646 Number of Texas probationers supervised out-of-state: 6,511 Number of parolees from other states supervised in Texas: 2,055 Number of probationers from other states supervised in Texas: 4,140 Interstate Compact processed 9,028 requests to transfer from Texas to other states. Interstate Compact processed 9,917 requests for transfer from other states to Texas. Source: https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/divisions/pd/interstate_compact.html https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/divisions/pd/interstate_compact.h...
- decide1000 3y ago
  Europe here. In general our taxes are higher but the infrastructure for healthcare and social safety nets are much better compared to US. Many (not all) EU countries have more robust welfare systems. This includes healthcare, income support for those in need. Also accessible mental health and drug abuse treatment programs are common. Overall this prevents homelessness. If you are homeless there are several programs to get you back on track. This includes shelters, (temporary) housing, financial support, work, food, coaching, healthcare, priority for social housing. Families (with kids) are not common to be homeless. Often there are special programs to get them off the street asap. Still there are some differences between EU countries. In west Europe there are better systems in place.
- constantcrying 3y ago
  Homeless people aren't homeless because they can't afford housing. Germany will pay your rent, yet homeless people exist.
proc0 3y ago
> Individuals and families have access to between $4,000 and $8,000, she said More and more communism. If you don't let some people fail, then the entire system will eventually fail and take down everyone with it. You cannot create a utopia. It's a dangerous hubris that destroys entire countries. Some people necessarily fail, and the best hope is for lessons to be learned, and education to prevail and teach people how to avoid it. Let's watch while California creates a permanent underclass that are hopelessly trapped depending on government help. Let's watch as people's feelings empower bad decisions that do the exact opposite of what they think it will do, again and again.
- StefanBatory 3y ago
  Communism is not defined as everything I don't like.
  - proc0 3y ago
    Correct. One definition is a totalitarian cult-like ideology that subverts culture and politics to achieve its own version of a utopia.
globalnode 3y ago
some people just arent equipped to deal with the world and/or other people, for whatever reasons. best we can do for them is give them food and shelter for free. its not like theyre gonna go and have incredible amounts of fun, theyre by definition fkd. dont know why people want to see them suffer more than necessary its quite inhumane. edit: was kinda replying to one of the comments further down but somehow posted as a top level. plz forgive.
- ksynwa 3y ago
  The reason something like this is unacceptable in USA is because it will drive down property prices and increase wages because people can choose to not work multiple terrible jobs just to barely make food and rent.
  - globalnode 3y ago
    ofc it would have economic impacts. but do we as a society really want to take advantage of our most vulnerable as is happening now? its the same with the basic income debate. healthy people most likely wouldnt just take it and do nothing but live off handouts, theyd be bored and start thinking up ways to fill their time -- potentially creating more economic benefits or some may voluntarily choose to do shitty jobs for extra income. if a product is of vital human importance and business cant get it done then govt can ensure its production. it wouldnt be an end to capitalism it would just be a more sustainable approach.
    - chatmasta 3y ago
      > advantage of our most vulnerable as is happening now? its the same with the basic income debate I’m pretty sure it’s the same debate. If you distinguish between the two then it becomes a different debate. But the whole point of basic income is that everyone gets a baseline check every month, regardless of whether or how they spend it. Even with basic income you’d still have homeless people who spent the money on things other than homes.
    - ksynwa 3y ago
lunfardl 3y ago
"Gov uses improved statistics to predict metrics" oh no, dystopian...
chatmasta 3y ago
Which data sources are they using for these predictive analytics?
- alexitorg 3y ago
  "The CIO integrated data from seven different county departments, de-identified for privacy, including emergency room visits, behavioral health care and large public benefits programs from food stamps to income support and homeless services, according to Janey Rountree, executive director of the California Policy Lab. The program also pulled data from the criminal justice system."
alexitorg 3y ago
I've built pilots of these kind of models for my government department (Victoria, Austalia). The prototypes in R using Random Forest models. Pilot version in Python using gradient boosting. We could have used deep learning models, but the increase in accuracy of the predictions is pretty minimal. We haven't used these models outside of a pilot. There is a long lag to get other departments/services data and de-identify it and link it (we have a team that does this, it has a lot of safeguards to ensure privacy). Although old data is still quite predictive. A simple predictive score didn't help our workers do their job as they needed to justify their decisions with evidence. Giving the workers access to underlying information (they would need to have legal authority to view the data, so that excludes Homelessness support staff) often is missing what they need for their processes.

16 points by lxm 3y ago

You know how you fix homelessness. You build houses. You know why Houston Texas has done better than CA why nordic countries do better than the US. Housing first. Because investments in homelessness that dont include homes are just perverse incentives to not fix the problem.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Texas overall generally does well on homelessness because being homeless in Texas sucks and Greyhound bus tickets really aren't that expensive. They even give release cons open bus tickets if they don't have anyone picking them up. It isn't weird to find out some guy who was caught sleeping in someone's basement in Seattle was just released from a Texas prison two weeks ago. If you want to solve your local homelessness problem, just make your city sucky to homeless in. Conversely, if you find yourself homeless, move to a city that is giving homes to homeless (housing first), and/or has the best social services. Without a residency system in place, any American can get social services in any city that is offering it, there is rarely any residency requirements (although there is something for HUD). For a city, if their homeless numbers go up, it can indicate that you are actually doing a good job, rather than a poor one. The only issue is that local resources being applied to a national problem without residency restrictions is not going to be sustainable for obvious reasons.
- zer00eyz 3y ago
  Houston spent years putting together a solid program that worked: https://www.governing.com/housing/how-houston-cut-its-homeless-population-by-nearly-two-thirds https://www.governing.com/housing/how-houston-cut-its-homele... or... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-houston-successfully-reduced-homelessness/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-houston-successfully-reduce... It's pretty much the same program that nordic countries have had for decades. And there aren't any bus tickets involved. > released from a Texas prison two weeks ago. Parole is common for more of them than not. Leaving the sate for Seattle would be a no no in may cases. You want to make this statement you have GOT to bring some receipts on it.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    See https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/faq/pd.html https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/faq/pd.html > Can inmates be supervised in other states? Yes. Texas has an agreement with other states, the District of Colombia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands to send and receive inmates for supervision. It is called the Interstate Compact for Adult Offender Supervision. Inmates approved to reside in other states must obey the rules of both Texas and the supervising state. And > What is “gate money”? Gate money is $50.00 and a bus ticket provided to the released inmate on parole or mandatory supervision by the Correctional Institutions Division to help with transportation to the community to which they are being paroled to. They will receive an additional $50.00 upon reporting to their parole office. End quote Also, if you don’t have an address to parole out to, you simply don’t get parole and you are relaxed at the end of your sentence. These days the prisons want to get rid of you as quickly as possible, though, so they’ll make it work even if the only choice is to head to LA, SF, Portland, or Seattle.
    - zer00eyz 3y ago
      >> Inmates approved >> Gate money is $50.00 and a bus ticket provided to the released inmate on parole or mandatory supervision You have some deep fundamental misunderstanding of what parole is, and how it works. Statistics FY 2021 Number of Texas parolees supervised out-of-state: 2,646 Number of Texas probationers supervised out-of-state: 6,511 Number of parolees from other states supervised in Texas: 2,055 Number of probationers from other states supervised in Texas: 4,140 Interstate Compact processed 9,028 requests to transfer from Texas to other states. Interstate Compact processed 9,917 requests for transfer from other states to Texas. Source: https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/divisions/pd/interstate_compact.html https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/divisions/pd/interstate_compact.h...
decide1000 3y ago
Europe here. In general our taxes are higher but the infrastructure for healthcare and social safety nets are much better compared to US. Many (not all) EU countries have more robust welfare systems. This includes healthcare, income support for those in need. Also accessible mental health and drug abuse treatment programs are common. Overall this prevents homelessness. If you are homeless there are several programs to get you back on track. This includes shelters, (temporary) housing, financial support, work, food, coaching, healthcare, priority for social housing. Families (with kids) are not common to be homeless. Often there are special programs to get them off the street asap. Still there are some differences between EU countries. In west Europe there are better systems in place.
constantcrying 3y ago
Homeless people aren't homeless because they can't afford housing. Germany will pay your rent, yet homeless people exist.

proc0 3y ago

> Individuals and families have access to between $4,000 and $8,000, she said More and more communism. If you don't let some people fail, then the entire system will eventually fail and take down everyone with it. You cannot create a utopia. It's a dangerous hubris that destroys entire countries. Some people necessarily fail, and the best hope is for lessons to be learned, and education to prevail and teach people how to avoid it. Let's watch while California creates a permanent underclass that are hopelessly trapped depending on government help. Let's watch as people's feelings empower bad decisions that do the exact opposite of what they think it will do, again and again.

StefanBatory 3y ago
Communism is not defined as everything I don't like.
- proc0 3y ago
  Correct. One definition is a totalitarian cult-like ideology that subverts culture and politics to achieve its own version of a utopia.

globalnode 3y ago

some people just arent equipped to deal with the world and/or other people, for whatever reasons. best we can do for them is give them food and shelter for free. its not like theyre gonna go and have incredible amounts of fun, theyre by definition fkd. dont know why people want to see them suffer more than necessary its quite inhumane. edit: was kinda replying to one of the comments further down but somehow posted as a top level. plz forgive.

ksynwa 3y ago
The reason something like this is unacceptable in USA is because it will drive down property prices and increase wages because people can choose to not work multiple terrible jobs just to barely make food and rent.
- globalnode 3y ago
  ofc it would have economic impacts. but do we as a society really want to take advantage of our most vulnerable as is happening now? its the same with the basic income debate. healthy people most likely wouldnt just take it and do nothing but live off handouts, theyd be bored and start thinking up ways to fill their time -- potentially creating more economic benefits or some may voluntarily choose to do shitty jobs for extra income. if a product is of vital human importance and business cant get it done then govt can ensure its production. it wouldnt be an end to capitalism it would just be a more sustainable approach.
  - chatmasta 3y ago
    > advantage of our most vulnerable as is happening now? its the same with the basic income debate I’m pretty sure it’s the same debate. If you distinguish between the two then it becomes a different debate. But the whole point of basic income is that everyone gets a baseline check every month, regardless of whether or how they spend it. Even with basic income you’d still have homeless people who spent the money on things other than homes.
  - ksynwa 3y ago

lunfardl 3y ago

"Gov uses improved statistics to predict metrics" oh no, dystopian...

chatmasta 3y ago

Which data sources are they using for these predictive analytics?

alexitorg 3y ago
"The CIO integrated data from seven different county departments, de-identified for privacy, including emergency room visits, behavioral health care and large public benefits programs from food stamps to income support and homeless services, according to Janey Rountree, executive director of the California Policy Lab. The program also pulled data from the criminal justice system."

alexitorg 3y ago

I've built pilots of these kind of models for my government department (Victoria, Austalia). The prototypes in R using Random Forest models. Pilot version in Python using gradient boosting. We could have used deep learning models, but the increase in accuracy of the predictions is pretty minimal. We haven't used these models outside of a pilot. There is a long lag to get other departments/services data and de-identify it and link it (we have a team that does this, it has a lot of safeguards to ensure privacy). Although old data is still quite predictive. A simple predictive score didn't help our workers do their job as they needed to justify their decisions with evidence. Giving the workers access to underlying information (they would need to have legal authority to view the data, so that excludes Homelessness support staff) often is missing what they need for their processes.