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Bitcoin is about 0.3% of world wealth, gold 3%. My estimate is that peak Bitcoin is anywhere between the current 0.3% and 1.5% (implied price $325k). After this

Bitcoin is about 0.3% of world wealth, gold 3%. My estimate is that peak Bitcoin is anywhere between the current 0.3% and 1.5% (implied price $325k). After this peak is reached, and there's a chance it has already been reached, it won't recover for decades or forever. And my guess is that this peak Bitcoin will happen within a decade.

dalyons 3y ago
Is there any particular reason we should assign any weight to this guess of yours? People have been calling “peak bitcoin from which it won’t recover” for at least 5 cycles now.
- RivieraKid 3y ago
  You should make your own mind. My belief is that it would be shocking if Bitcoin's market cap got close to gold, because gold has substantial fundamental value (which prevents the price fron collapsing) and a long tradition. Another reason is that the narrative that Bitcoin's price will at least double or triple won't be believable if Bitcoin gets to 1.5% of world wealth. When hodlers realize that they will not double their money, the rationale for hodling disappears.
  - npoc 3y ago
    If you don't think bitcoin can even get close to gold, then you really don't understand bitcoin yet. Smashing golds market cap will happen in less than 6 years. And that's just the start.
    - RivieraKid 2y ago
      I could say the same, if you think Bitcoin's market cap can get close to gold's, you don't understand Bitcoin yet. Same "argument" as yours.
      - npoc 2y ago
        Except I have already been in your frame of mind. You have never been in mine.
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        I've been in yours and it's wrong.
        npoc 2y ago
        You'd be the first person I've come across who understood bitcoin and then un-understood it.
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        What about Bitcoin do you think I don't understand, be specific. If it's a claim about Bitcoin that's not self-evident, give some reasoning behind it.
        npoc 2y ago
        You claim that gold has "fundamental value" and imply that bitcoin doesn't. If you don't understand why bitcoin has fundamental value, then I'd bet you don't understand why gold has either. If you understand why gold has fundamental value, it's self evident why bitcoin has it too (far, far more in fact).
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        So what's this fundamental value that I'm not understanding? I think Bitcoin has some limited fundamental value by the way. Be specific, it seems like you're deliberately vague because you don't have a strong argument. (And I think I know what's the argument.)
        npoc 2y ago

dalyons 3y ago

Is there any particular reason we should assign any weight to this guess of yours? People have been calling “peak bitcoin from which it won’t recover” for at least 5 cycles now.

RivieraKid 3y ago
You should make your own mind. My belief is that it would be shocking if Bitcoin's market cap got close to gold, because gold has substantial fundamental value (which prevents the price fron collapsing) and a long tradition. Another reason is that the narrative that Bitcoin's price will at least double or triple won't be believable if Bitcoin gets to 1.5% of world wealth. When hodlers realize that they will not double their money, the rationale for hodling disappears.
- npoc 3y ago
  If you don't think bitcoin can even get close to gold, then you really don't understand bitcoin yet. Smashing golds market cap will happen in less than 6 years. And that's just the start.
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    I could say the same, if you think Bitcoin's market cap can get close to gold's, you don't understand Bitcoin yet. Same "argument" as yours.
    - npoc 2y ago
      Except I have already been in your frame of mind. You have never been in mine.
      - RivieraKid 2y ago
        I've been in yours and it's wrong.
        npoc 2y ago
        You'd be the first person I've come across who understood bitcoin and then un-understood it.
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        What about Bitcoin do you think I don't understand, be specific. If it's a claim about Bitcoin that's not self-evident, give some reasoning behind it.
        npoc 2y ago
        You claim that gold has "fundamental value" and imply that bitcoin doesn't. If you don't understand why bitcoin has fundamental value, then I'd bet you don't understand why gold has either. If you understand why gold has fundamental value, it's self evident why bitcoin has it too (far, far more in fact).
        RivieraKid 2y ago
        So what's this fundamental value that I'm not understanding? I think Bitcoin has some limited fundamental value by the way. Be specific, it seems like you're deliberately vague because you don't have a strong argument. (And I think I know what's the argument.)
        npoc 2y ago