3 ms·

Fossil fuels aren't yet in danger of being replaced. Their power density and EROI is hard to replicate.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
https://electrek.co/2024/03/19/byd-nev-share-50-next-3-months-china/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/19/byd-nev-share-50-next-3-month... https://electrek.co/2024/03/11/byds-new-lower-cost-ev-platform-crush-gas-powered-car-sales/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/11/byds-new-lower-cost-ev-platfo... https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023-oil-demand-iea/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://www.ft.com/content/b255d7b9-88f6-4481-a3a6-87542d2b728b https://www.ft.com/content/b255d7b9-88f6-4481-a3a6-87542d2b7... | https://archive.today/eC5Pp https://archive.today/eC5Pp
- withinboredom 2y ago
  Battery tech is going to double in two years… every year since 1992 (and possibly before). Still hasn’t happened yet.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-decline_850.png https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-dec... https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...
    - withinboredom 2y ago
      Price != density Super important for things like vehicles (especially airplanes).
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. Vehicles are already solved for, as is utility scale energy storage, using existing battery cells and their density. Marine transport will use either ammonia or methanol, both produced through clean energy based processes. ~40% of the tonnage of ships traveling the world’s oceans and rivers is moving energy around [1] [2], which should decline as renewables, transmission, and battery storage scales up globally. There is no "silver bullet," but many solutions all converging (rapidly and effectively, from a preponderance of all available information) on deprecating fossil fuels for energy. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
        withinboredom 2y ago
        Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus extending their range. Plus, the energy density of petroleum is ridiculous. I don’t see this realistically changing any time soon. With batteries, they don’t get lighter and have to land heavy. It’s something you don’t want to do because modern airframes aren’t really built for it to reduce weight so they can fly longer. As for sustainable solutions… I’m not sure that’s something we necessarily want. I’m all for sustainable solutions, but we actually probably want certain pollutants to help cool the earth (like a volcano) and less of others that cause greenhouse effects. So, if that’s what you mean by sustainable solutions, then that’s something we agree on.
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
- usrusr 2y ago
  Yeah, cars do not have particularly high requirements in terms of energy density. In a pinch people have been able to substitute petrol with fuel as low density as wood: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas_generator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas_generator But that's just the driving around use case, others are very far out of reach.
CatWChainsaw 2y ago
I doubt we'll ever find as great a fuel source among the various replacements. An energy-dense liquid fuel that burns off as you use it is incredible attractive for transport purposes and there isn't a good replacement for that.
- dalyons 2y ago
  You can pretty easily replace it with synthetic liquid fuel, made with clean energy. That’s likely what will happen in the medium term (~10 years) with aviation and marine, because of density as you said.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
> Their power density and EROI is hard to replicate. The market is really good at replacing superior solutions if the inferior solution is cheaper.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

https://electrek.co/2024/03/19/byd-nev-share-50-next-3-months-china/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/19/byd-nev-share-50-next-3-month... https://electrek.co/2024/03/11/byds-new-lower-cost-ev-platform-crush-gas-powered-car-sales/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/11/byds-new-lower-cost-ev-platfo... https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023-oil-demand-iea/ https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://www.ft.com/content/b255d7b9-88f6-4481-a3a6-87542d2b728b https://www.ft.com/content/b255d7b9-88f6-4481-a3a6-87542d2b7... | https://archive.today/eC5Pp https://archive.today/eC5Pp

withinboredom 2y ago
Battery tech is going to double in two years… every year since 1992 (and possibly before). Still hasn’t happened yet.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-decline_850.png https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-dec... https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...
  - withinboredom 2y ago
    Price != density Super important for things like vehicles (especially airplanes).
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. Vehicles are already solved for, as is utility scale energy storage, using existing battery cells and their density. Marine transport will use either ammonia or methanol, both produced through clean energy based processes. ~40% of the tonnage of ships traveling the world’s oceans and rivers is moving energy around [1] [2], which should decline as renewables, transmission, and battery storage scales up globally. There is no "silver bullet," but many solutions all converging (rapidly and effectively, from a preponderance of all available information) on deprecating fossil fuels for energy. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
      - withinboredom 2y ago
        Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus extending their range. Plus, the energy density of petroleum is ridiculous. I don’t see this realistically changing any time soon. With batteries, they don’t get lighter and have to land heavy. It’s something you don’t want to do because modern airframes aren’t really built for it to reduce weight so they can fly longer. As for sustainable solutions… I’m not sure that’s something we necessarily want. I’m all for sustainable solutions, but we actually probably want certain pollutants to help cool the earth (like a volcano) and less of others that cause greenhouse effects. So, if that’s what you mean by sustainable solutions, then that’s something we agree on.
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
usrusr 2y ago
Yeah, cars do not have particularly high requirements in terms of energy density. In a pinch people have been able to substitute petrol with fuel as low density as wood: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas_generator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wood_gas_generator But that's just the driving around use case, others are very far out of reach.

CatWChainsaw 2y ago

I doubt we'll ever find as great a fuel source among the various replacements. An energy-dense liquid fuel that burns off as you use it is incredible attractive for transport purposes and there isn't a good replacement for that.

dalyons 2y ago
You can pretty easily replace it with synthetic liquid fuel, made with clean energy. That’s likely what will happen in the medium term (~10 years) with aviation and marine, because of density as you said.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

> Their power density and EROI is hard to replicate. The market is really good at replacing superior solutions if the inferior solution is cheaper.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]