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There are multiple alarm bells, not just saber rattling: - Xi Jinping is 70 years old. He has repeatedly said that he views this as a legacy-defining issue, a

There are multiple alarm bells, not just saber rattling: - Xi Jinping is 70 years old. He has repeatedly said that he views this as a legacy-defining issue, a matter of personal pride. If possible, he will do this before his potential death. He is also fully aware (even having his name in the constitution) that the odds of his successor having the power and influence to pull off an invasion is significantly lower. - China has been preparing its economy for potential sanctions in multiple ways - like buying Gold for over a year straight whenever possible, increasing restrictions on foreign equipment, more heavily restricting foreign investment, and investing heavily in self-reliance programs. Even today, they have announced that many third-party messaging systems are being cut off. - China's worsening demographics crisis means that invading Taiwan, just 10 years from now, may be increasingly demographically challenging due to the lack of young workers, and the severe impact of losing too many. Demographic requirements require an invasion soon, or never. - China has replaced most of the war cabinet with individuals with previous Taiwan experience, even at the expense of replacing more accomplished individuals. The war cabinet is now 15/24 officers with Taiwanese understanding. One recent member was added while having never been in the Central Committee - a major political speedrun. - In March 2024, China removed "peaceful unification" as the party platform. We also learned during Biden/Xi meeting that Xi Jinping personally told Biden that he was willing to reunify by force, even though they would still prefer peaceful means. That part wasn't mentioned for almost a month after the meeting. - In 2023, there were incidents where multiple internet fiber optic cables were inexplicably cut. It could've been a stray fishing vessel (it happens). But two in the same week, cutting off an entire archipelago temporarily? 27 times in the past five years is also a fairly high break rate that is causing questions. There are other warning bells I could name as well if you are interested. Also, let's not even just dismiss "saber-rattling" - brandishing a weapon is still a crime in most states, and if a weapon is brandished on you, I think you will still be likely to take a step back.

wnevets 3y ago
China's military isn't capable or stupid enough to launch such a D-Day style amphibious invasion against Taiwan in the next 5 years.
- gjsman-1000 3y ago
  A. War is generally stupid. Yet we still have war. B. "isn't capable enough" - according to the US... I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent. If you had said that Germany would nearly conquer Europe in 1929, you would've been laughed at as insane. If you had said the US would ultimately lose a country to the Taliban, you would’ve also been laughed at as insane. C. Who needs a full scale amphibious invasion? Bomb some government buildings, blockade the place, and when 90% of Taiwan's energy is imported, they go dark and are willing to negotiate. Nothing forces acceptance like 24 million starving people on an island with no escape, as brutal as that would be. Heck, the same political organization which killed 30 million people from famine in their "Great Leap Forward" is still in power.
  - wnevets 3y ago
    > B. "isn't capable enough" - according to the US... I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent. If you had said that Germany would nearly conquer Europe in 1929, you would've been laughed at as insane. If you had said the US would ultimately lose a country to the Taliban, you would’ve also been laughed at as insane. Ironically that is exactly what you are doing with Taiwan and its defensive capabilities. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion and attacks from the larger mainland since the revolution and has become one of the defensible places on the planet. > Who needs a full scale amphibious invasion? Bomb some government buildings, blockade the place, and when 90% of Taiwan's energy is imported, they go dark and are willing to negotiate. You just moved the goal post from invasion to a blockage, but lets continue anyway. Why are you assuming Taiwan would just keel over and allow that to happen? Why are you assuming the Chinese navy would be capable from preventing the US and its allies from conducting freedom of navigation operations through the blockade? You know for someone who just said "I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent" you are doing a lot of underestimating of China's opponents in this situation.
    - gjsman-1000 3y ago
      > Ironically that is exactly what you are doing with Taiwan and its defensive capabilities. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion and attacks from the larger mainland since the revolution and has become one of the defensible places on the planet. If you're swallowing the cool-aid, definitely. In practice, not really. Just one example: Their mandatory military training has been considered, as just one example, atrociously useless by graduates and little more than a "summer camp." So much so that it was recently changed starting in 2024 to be one year instead of four months. Graduates were causing scandal by saying they did not even learn how to fire a gun during their conscription. https://globaltaiwan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GTB-Volume-9-Issue-3.pdf https://globaltaiwan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GTB-Volu... https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/wah0u6/dispelling_the_myth_of_taiwan_military_competency/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/wah0u6/dis... This comes in addition to a poll (by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation), which found that 78% of respondents aged 20 and over (who, again, would have been in the mandatory military service), said they had "no confidence that Taiwan could defend itself." https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/taiwans-military-needs-overhaul-amid-china-threat-critics-say https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/taiwans-military-needs-ov... https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-mulls-lengthening-military-service-/6523728.html https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-mulls-lengthening-military-... So think about this. You're bragging about Taiwan. 78% of the young people who have been through its training have said they have no confidence in their ability to defend themselves. That's a really bad omen. Even if the poll were 20% off, if that were possible, 58% of young people saying they didn't have confidence would be terrifying, and I'm not going to just say, "well, my statistics show you should be fine, therefore you're wrong" to people who live there. > Why are you assuming Taiwan would just keel over and allow that to happen? Why are you assuming the Chinese navy would be capable from preventing the US and its allies from conducting freedom of navigation operations through the blockade? Because, China threatens anyone who dares assist. It's not a military question, it's a political question about whether angering China is a safe move. While blockading Russia is scary; blockading China would be an economically suicidal for any nation that attempts it. This is combined with the threat of internal sabotage and potential military actions on any nation assisting Taiwan. And while I'm not supporting Trump here, think about our border, which had 2.5 million encounters in 2023. If there were just 50,000 CCP officers in that 2.5 million, the damage they could do in a coordinated effort would be incredible.

wnevets 3y ago

China's military isn't capable or stupid enough to launch such a D-Day style amphibious invasion against Taiwan in the next 5 years.

gjsman-1000 3y ago
A. War is generally stupid. Yet we still have war. B. "isn't capable enough" - according to the US... I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent. If you had said that Germany would nearly conquer Europe in 1929, you would've been laughed at as insane. If you had said the US would ultimately lose a country to the Taliban, you would’ve also been laughed at as insane. C. Who needs a full scale amphibious invasion? Bomb some government buildings, blockade the place, and when 90% of Taiwan's energy is imported, they go dark and are willing to negotiate. Nothing forces acceptance like 24 million starving people on an island with no escape, as brutal as that would be. Heck, the same political organization which killed 30 million people from famine in their "Great Leap Forward" is still in power.
- wnevets 3y ago
  > B. "isn't capable enough" - according to the US... I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent. If you had said that Germany would nearly conquer Europe in 1929, you would've been laughed at as insane. If you had said the US would ultimately lose a country to the Taliban, you would’ve also been laughed at as insane. Ironically that is exactly what you are doing with Taiwan and its defensive capabilities. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion and attacks from the larger mainland since the revolution and has become one of the defensible places on the planet. > Who needs a full scale amphibious invasion? Bomb some government buildings, blockade the place, and when 90% of Taiwan's energy is imported, they go dark and are willing to negotiate. You just moved the goal post from invasion to a blockage, but lets continue anyway. Why are you assuming Taiwan would just keel over and allow that to happen? Why are you assuming the Chinese navy would be capable from preventing the US and its allies from conducting freedom of navigation operations through the blockade? You know for someone who just said "I simply say, don't underestimate your opponent" you are doing a lot of underestimating of China's opponents in this situation.
  - gjsman-1000 3y ago
    > Ironically that is exactly what you are doing with Taiwan and its defensive capabilities. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion and attacks from the larger mainland since the revolution and has become one of the defensible places on the planet. If you're swallowing the cool-aid, definitely. In practice, not really. Just one example: Their mandatory military training has been considered, as just one example, atrociously useless by graduates and little more than a "summer camp." So much so that it was recently changed starting in 2024 to be one year instead of four months. Graduates were causing scandal by saying they did not even learn how to fire a gun during their conscription. https://globaltaiwan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GTB-Volume-9-Issue-3.pdf https://globaltaiwan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GTB-Volu... https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/wah0u6/dispelling_the_myth_of_taiwan_military_competency/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/wah0u6/dis... This comes in addition to a poll (by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation), which found that 78% of respondents aged 20 and over (who, again, would have been in the mandatory military service), said they had "no confidence that Taiwan could defend itself." https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/taiwans-military-needs-overhaul-amid-china-threat-critics-say https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/taiwans-military-needs-ov... https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-mulls-lengthening-military-service-/6523728.html https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-mulls-lengthening-military-... So think about this. You're bragging about Taiwan. 78% of the young people who have been through its training have said they have no confidence in their ability to defend themselves. That's a really bad omen. Even if the poll were 20% off, if that were possible, 58% of young people saying they didn't have confidence would be terrifying, and I'm not going to just say, "well, my statistics show you should be fine, therefore you're wrong" to people who live there. > Why are you assuming Taiwan would just keel over and allow that to happen? Why are you assuming the Chinese navy would be capable from preventing the US and its allies from conducting freedom of navigation operations through the blockade? Because, China threatens anyone who dares assist. It's not a military question, it's a political question about whether angering China is a safe move. While blockading Russia is scary; blockading China would be an economically suicidal for any nation that attempts it. This is combined with the threat of internal sabotage and potential military actions on any nation assisting Taiwan. And while I'm not supporting Trump here, think about our border, which had 2.5 million encounters in 2023. If there were just 50,000 CCP officers in that 2.5 million, the damage they could do in a coordinated effort would be incredible.