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You seem completely oblivious of the high likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the next 5 years. That will make the covid chip supply disruptions look like a

You seem completely oblivious of the high likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the next 5 years. That will make the covid chip supply disruptions look like a supply chain nirvana in comparison. Any large corporation with more than 2 braincells at the helm is going to want to hedge against Total Supply Annihilation.

exe34 2y ago
I wonder if they'd consider sabotage of these fabs first, to wean us off their chips and then invade further down the line.
- wutwutwat 2y ago
  Idk but we should probably preemptively strike to ensure no such thing happens, what do you say? /s I hope you aren’t really this paranoid and distrusting of other humans. Man, folks don’t realize how indoctrinated they are into this bullshit. Nobody has done anything, but look at what you’re talking about.
  - exe34 2y ago
    I really am this paranoid, which is why I believe we should have self-sufficiency in fundamental industries like fabs, steel, energy and food production. > Nobody has done anything, but look at what you’re talking about. Isn't that the same bullshit that moved Germany off nuclear and onto Russian gas? I wonder if anything happened because of that....
    - exe34 2y ago
      Ps: it's not paranoia if they're out to get you!
wnevets 2y ago
> You seem completely oblivious of the high likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the next 5 years. I get that there is a lot of saber-rattling taking place but that isn't going to happen.
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  There are multiple alarm bells, not just saber rattling: - Xi Jinping is 70 years old. He has repeatedly said that he views this as a legacy-defining issue, a matter of personal pride. If possible, he will do this before his potential death. He is also fully aware (even having his name in the constitution) that the odds of his successor having the power and influence to pull off an invasion is significantly lower. - China has been preparing its economy for potential sanctions in multiple ways - like buying Gold for over a year straight whenever possible, increasing restrictions on foreign equipment, more heavily restricting foreign investment, and investing heavily in self-reliance programs. Even today, they have announced that many third-party messaging systems are being cut off. - China's worsening demographics crisis means that invading Taiwan, just 10 years from now, may be increasingly demographically challenging due to the lack of young workers, and the severe impact of losing too many. Demographic requirements require an invasion soon, or never. - China has replaced most of the war cabinet with individuals with previous Taiwan experience, even at the expense of replacing more accomplished individuals. The war cabinet is now 15/24 officers with Taiwanese understanding. One recent member was added while having never been in the Central Committee - a major political speedrun. - In March 2024, China removed "peaceful unification" as the party platform. We also learned during Biden/Xi meeting that Xi Jinping personally told Biden that he was willing to reunify by force, even though they would still prefer peaceful means. That part wasn't mentioned for almost a month after the meeting. - In 2023, there were incidents where multiple internet fiber optic cables were inexplicably cut. It could've been a stray fishing vessel (it happens). But two in the same week, cutting off an entire archipelago temporarily? 27 times in the past five years is also a fairly high break rate that is causing questions. There are other warning bells I could name as well if you are interested. Also, let's not even just dismiss "saber-rattling" - brandishing a weapon is still a crime in most states, and if a weapon is brandished on you, I think you will still be likely to take a step back.
  - wnevets 2y ago
    China's military isn't capable or stupid enough to launch such a D-Day style amphibious invasion against Taiwan in the next 5 years.
wutwutwat 2y ago
Well then, I’m glad that if war breaks out and lots of humans are dying that corporations had enough brain cells to ensure profit margins don’t take a hit. Thanks for explaining things.

exe34 2y ago

I wonder if they'd consider sabotage of these fabs first, to wean us off their chips and then invade further down the line.

wutwutwat 2y ago
Idk but we should probably preemptively strike to ensure no such thing happens, what do you say? /s I hope you aren’t really this paranoid and distrusting of other humans. Man, folks don’t realize how indoctrinated they are into this bullshit. Nobody has done anything, but look at what you’re talking about.
- exe34 2y ago
  I really am this paranoid, which is why I believe we should have self-sufficiency in fundamental industries like fabs, steel, energy and food production. > Nobody has done anything, but look at what you’re talking about. Isn't that the same bullshit that moved Germany off nuclear and onto Russian gas? I wonder if anything happened because of that....
  - exe34 2y ago
    Ps: it's not paranoia if they're out to get you!

wnevets 2y ago

> You seem completely oblivious of the high likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the next 5 years. I get that there is a lot of saber-rattling taking place but that isn't going to happen.

gjsman-1000 2y ago
There are multiple alarm bells, not just saber rattling: - Xi Jinping is 70 years old. He has repeatedly said that he views this as a legacy-defining issue, a matter of personal pride. If possible, he will do this before his potential death. He is also fully aware (even having his name in the constitution) that the odds of his successor having the power and influence to pull off an invasion is significantly lower. - China has been preparing its economy for potential sanctions in multiple ways - like buying Gold for over a year straight whenever possible, increasing restrictions on foreign equipment, more heavily restricting foreign investment, and investing heavily in self-reliance programs. Even today, they have announced that many third-party messaging systems are being cut off. - China's worsening demographics crisis means that invading Taiwan, just 10 years from now, may be increasingly demographically challenging due to the lack of young workers, and the severe impact of losing too many. Demographic requirements require an invasion soon, or never. - China has replaced most of the war cabinet with individuals with previous Taiwan experience, even at the expense of replacing more accomplished individuals. The war cabinet is now 15/24 officers with Taiwanese understanding. One recent member was added while having never been in the Central Committee - a major political speedrun. - In March 2024, China removed "peaceful unification" as the party platform. We also learned during Biden/Xi meeting that Xi Jinping personally told Biden that he was willing to reunify by force, even though they would still prefer peaceful means. That part wasn't mentioned for almost a month after the meeting. - In 2023, there were incidents where multiple internet fiber optic cables were inexplicably cut. It could've been a stray fishing vessel (it happens). But two in the same week, cutting off an entire archipelago temporarily? 27 times in the past five years is also a fairly high break rate that is causing questions. There are other warning bells I could name as well if you are interested. Also, let's not even just dismiss "saber-rattling" - brandishing a weapon is still a crime in most states, and if a weapon is brandished on you, I think you will still be likely to take a step back.
- wnevets 2y ago
  China's military isn't capable or stupid enough to launch such a D-Day style amphibious invasion against Taiwan in the next 5 years.

wutwutwat 2y ago

Well then, I’m glad that if war breaks out and lots of humans are dying that corporations had enough brain cells to ensure profit margins don’t take a hit. Thanks for explaining things.