4 ms·

What "current economic situation"? Aside from what the doomers in news media and social media get paid to tell you, what's wrong with the economy, jobs, salarie

by paxys 3y ago

What "current economic situation"? Aside from what the doomers in news media and social media get paid to tell you, what's wrong with the economy, jobs, salaries?

nytesky 3y ago
Housing. It’s all about housing. And, related, mortgage rates.
- travisgriggs 3y ago
  And transportation. And insurance. And energy. And health care.
  - kjkjadksj 3y ago
    All those payments are in the small three figures maybe a month while rents and mortgages are an order of magnitude higher.
    - danans 3y ago
      In absolute terms rent and mortgage tend to always be higher than the other categories for most people. The more pertinent question is how these have changed on a percentage basis, and relative to each other and median income.
  - sanderjd 3y ago
    None of those things are much more expensive in real terms now than they were a decade ago. Housing is, though.
- llamaimperative 3y ago
  Mortgage rates are totally within reason. Housing prices are not.
  - sanderjd 3y ago
    I'm convinced that the mortgage rate problem is not about the rates themselves, but about the second derivative. That is, the rate at which the mortgage rates themselves have changed. In particular, the giant spike from ~2% to ~8% in a couple years. If they are stable at 6%-7% for the next 20 years, you're right, they will absolutely be "totally within reason". But it's a big distortionary problem that a huge number of people have fixed rates at ~2.5% with almost three decades left on them, while the current rate is more than double that. It's super hard to eat an almost 5% rate increase to do the kind of normal nearly like-for-like home sale that usually comprises a big portion of housing turnover.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
travisgriggs 3y ago
Enshitification. And the associated rise of the rent seeking economies. The jobs are good. Salaries are not nearly as fluid as the rate at which rates of rent (housing and all other services) fluctuate. I have four kids between 20 and 28. I feel for them. Especially the ones who have kids already, man has having kids gotten expensive.
boesboes 3y ago
Really? Look around you man. Just an example: I make about 2 times the median income in my area, that puts me in the top 5% nationally. I can 'afford' the bottom 10-15% of housing. It's already a shitty proposition for me with 16 years experience and career progress. I can't blame young people for saying fuck this shit. But at least I can afford food. So there is that.
- anthonypasq 3y ago
  im assuming you live in SF or something, which means you need to understand you are a complete and total outlier to begin with. Either way, it has never been the case that the average person is able to afford to live in the city and raise a family. why do you think that everyone moves out to the suburbs to buy a house. The town your parents moved to was not as built up when they moved there as it is now. The city expanded. We just have to accept that we'll probably have to move a lot farther out from the city which is really the same equivalent that your parents did.
  - Balgair 3y ago
    To add to this: Prop 13. The CA housing market is just totally distorted by Prop 13. It is by design meant to screw new home buyers. And has been doing this for 46 years, with absolutely no end in sight. I guess my point is that CA folks shouldn't generalize the issues with the housing market to the rest of the US/world just because they have a dogshit law on their books.
  - carlosjobim 3y ago
    > im assuming you live in SF or something, which means you need to understand you are a complete and total outlier to begin with. No, this is true almost everywhere. Wages are low in comparison to housing cost. If the poster was living and working where houses are cheaper than SF, then his salary would also be lower and he would still be limited to bottom tier housing on his income. The only way possible right now is to own real estate by inheritance or by having been born earlier to get in before those people who decided to be born later. Either that or you have to find a way to get your income from somewhere different to where you live, so that you can afford property. With WFH normalised I'm predicting massive migration waves as the younger generations from expensive towns, cities and countries move away to where they can afford to live.
sanderjd 3y ago
I'm on team "the economy is really good right now, actually!", but, relevant to this thread, I think it's pretty clear that it's hard for people to feel good about things when interest rates are way higher than they were in very recent memory, because it makes the housing market more expensive (and also way more static), and makes things like car payments higher. I think a good lesson to learn from this period is "people are very sensitive to gas prices and the rates on mortgages and car loans".

by paxys 3y ago

What "current economic situation"? Aside from what the doomers in news media and social media get paid to tell you, what's wrong with the economy, jobs, salaries?

nytesky 3y ago

Housing. It’s all about housing. And, related, mortgage rates.

travisgriggs 3y ago
And transportation. And insurance. And energy. And health care.
- kjkjadksj 3y ago
  All those payments are in the small three figures maybe a month while rents and mortgages are an order of magnitude higher.
  - danans 3y ago
    In absolute terms rent and mortgage tend to always be higher than the other categories for most people. The more pertinent question is how these have changed on a percentage basis, and relative to each other and median income.
- sanderjd 3y ago
  None of those things are much more expensive in real terms now than they were a decade ago. Housing is, though.
llamaimperative 3y ago
Mortgage rates are totally within reason. Housing prices are not.
- sanderjd 3y ago
  I'm convinced that the mortgage rate problem is not about the rates themselves, but about the second derivative. That is, the rate at which the mortgage rates themselves have changed. In particular, the giant spike from ~2% to ~8% in a couple years. If they are stable at 6%-7% for the next 20 years, you're right, they will absolutely be "totally within reason". But it's a big distortionary problem that a huge number of people have fixed rates at ~2.5% with almost three decades left on them, while the current rate is more than double that. It's super hard to eat an almost 5% rate increase to do the kind of normal nearly like-for-like home sale that usually comprises a big portion of housing turnover.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

travisgriggs 3y ago

Enshitification. And the associated rise of the rent seeking economies. The jobs are good. Salaries are not nearly as fluid as the rate at which rates of rent (housing and all other services) fluctuate. I have four kids between 20 and 28. I feel for them. Especially the ones who have kids already, man has having kids gotten expensive.

boesboes 3y ago

Really? Look around you man. Just an example: I make about 2 times the median income in my area, that puts me in the top 5% nationally. I can 'afford' the bottom 10-15% of housing. It's already a shitty proposition for me with 16 years experience and career progress. I can't blame young people for saying fuck this shit. But at least I can afford food. So there is that.

anthonypasq 3y ago
im assuming you live in SF or something, which means you need to understand you are a complete and total outlier to begin with. Either way, it has never been the case that the average person is able to afford to live in the city and raise a family. why do you think that everyone moves out to the suburbs to buy a house. The town your parents moved to was not as built up when they moved there as it is now. The city expanded. We just have to accept that we'll probably have to move a lot farther out from the city which is really the same equivalent that your parents did.
- Balgair 3y ago
  To add to this: Prop 13. The CA housing market is just totally distorted by Prop 13. It is by design meant to screw new home buyers. And has been doing this for 46 years, with absolutely no end in sight. I guess my point is that CA folks shouldn't generalize the issues with the housing market to the rest of the US/world just because they have a dogshit law on their books.
- carlosjobim 3y ago
  > im assuming you live in SF or something, which means you need to understand you are a complete and total outlier to begin with. No, this is true almost everywhere. Wages are low in comparison to housing cost. If the poster was living and working where houses are cheaper than SF, then his salary would also be lower and he would still be limited to bottom tier housing on his income. The only way possible right now is to own real estate by inheritance or by having been born earlier to get in before those people who decided to be born later. Either that or you have to find a way to get your income from somewhere different to where you live, so that you can afford property. With WFH normalised I'm predicting massive migration waves as the younger generations from expensive towns, cities and countries move away to where they can afford to live.

sanderjd 3y ago

I'm on team "the economy is really good right now, actually!", but, relevant to this thread, I think it's pretty clear that it's hard for people to feel good about things when interest rates are way higher than they were in very recent memory, because it makes the housing market more expensive (and also way more static), and makes things like car payments higher. I think a good lesson to learn from this period is "people are very sensitive to gas prices and the rates on mortgages and car loans".