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Iran Launches More Than 100 Drones Toward Israel

25 points by htk 3y ago

htk 3y ago
Technically speaking, why not a missile attack instead? Drones seem to be easier targets to defend against.
- cwillu 3y ago
  Timing: if you want everything to arrive around the same time, you launch the missiles later; and this is in fact what happened. As for why drones at all, well, the swarm koolade is tasty.
  - chatmasta 3y ago
    Can’t the drones fire missiles?
    - cwillu 3y ago
      Not really, the sort of missile with range and speed relevant to this conflict is itself larger than the drones that would be firing them. There are orders of magnitude difference in size and capability for things called “drones”, and likewise for “missiles”.
      - chatmasta 3y ago
        So what do the drones do, kamikaze basically? They’ve got a warhead attached to their belly and just fly into a target?
        cwillu 3y ago
        Exactly, yeah. It's a sore spot for me that we don't call them cruise missiles, even though I understand the argument (in principle they can be called back and recovered, and will have a loitering capability that is sometimes useful).
        cwillu 3y ago
        Not completely up to date, but: https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Drone-Revolution https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Drone-Revolution “OK, but are we sure that we couldn’t just substitute a huge quantity of cheap systems for the expensive ones? Quantity has a quality all its own, and if we throw enough drones at a carrier, it’s going to die. Again, no. In theory, you could overwhelm a carrier by throwing drones at it, but for cases where the “drones” aren’t just cruise missiles, this is like attempting to break down a door by throwing mashed potatoes at it.”
- paulpauper 3y ago
  drones are more versatile
  - cwillu 3y ago
    Not meaningfully for the purposes they're being applied here: drones are cheap, and will eventually arrive (if they're not shot down first), and so you can launch a bunch of them and make a credible claim to your people that you've taken the matter seriously, while not actually costing much or risking a huge retaliation in response to your alpha strike.
- cwillu 3y ago
  It's looking like this whole thing might have been theatre for their own population: they've now been seen to have taken severe enough action to have received international military defense and condemnation, without going so far as to provoke retaliation.
  - bradley13 3y ago
    Exactly this. The announcements in advance "we will attack", "it's going to be huuuge" - if they were serious, it would have been idiotic to give their opponent warning. Then the supermassive attack...is about what Ukraine deals with every week, only Israel has allies helping it defend. Honestly, Iran looks pretty stupid here. But I'm sure their internal propaganda frames it differently.
    - skissane 3y ago
      > Honestly, Iran looks pretty stupid here They've performed a real world test on how their weapons perform against Israeli air defences. And the results of the test were not impressive. But no doubt they've gathered lots of real world data, which they can use to inform the development of their next generation of weapons. And no doubt they'll share that data with Russia and China. Because a lot of Israel's air defences is based on technology shared with the US and other US allies, so whatever Iran learns from this might end up being applicable in conflicts in other parts of the globe Maybe not such a stupid decision after all
- tguvot 3y ago
  you can relax. there were also cruise and ballistic missiles. timed to arrive at ~same time. probably attempt to overload air defense
  - cwillu 3y ago
    There were no ballistic missiles, that report was confirmed false.
    - tguvot 3y ago
      yeah. and this is why idf speaker jumped into live tv and said that missiles were lunched. after this entire south was covered by air defense alerts and high altitude interceptors were launched.
      - cwillu 3y ago
        Cruise missiles are not ballistic missiles, and even if it was just drones, it would be stupid to not prepare for the possibility of ballistic missiles.
        tguvot 3y ago
        cruise missiles were launched more than hour ago. it were ballistic missiles and to intercept were launched arrow 2/3 which work way up there and deal specifically with ballistic missiles
        cwillu 3y ago
        Sorry, I'm having some trouble understanding what you're saying. They have layered ballistic defense, and it's on alert. Are you saying that they've confirmed launches in an attempt to shoot down ballistic missiles they've spotted? Do you have any links to sources? Everything official I've read seems to confirm my understanding, and there has only been one unconfirmed source claiming otherwise that I've seen.
- wslh 3y ago
  You are seeing an snapshot, we don't know if something comes next.
ChrisArchitect 3y ago
[dupe] Some more discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40025617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40025617

25 points by htk 3y ago

htk 3y ago

Technically speaking, why not a missile attack instead? Drones seem to be easier targets to defend against.

cwillu 3y ago
Timing: if you want everything to arrive around the same time, you launch the missiles later; and this is in fact what happened. As for why drones at all, well, the swarm koolade is tasty.
- chatmasta 3y ago
  Can’t the drones fire missiles?
  - cwillu 3y ago
    Not really, the sort of missile with range and speed relevant to this conflict is itself larger than the drones that would be firing them. There are orders of magnitude difference in size and capability for things called “drones”, and likewise for “missiles”.
    - chatmasta 3y ago
      So what do the drones do, kamikaze basically? They’ve got a warhead attached to their belly and just fly into a target?
      - cwillu 3y ago
        Exactly, yeah. It's a sore spot for me that we don't call them cruise missiles, even though I understand the argument (in principle they can be called back and recovered, and will have a loitering capability that is sometimes useful).
      - cwillu 3y ago
        Not completely up to date, but: https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Drone-Revolution https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Drone-Revolution “OK, but are we sure that we couldn’t just substitute a huge quantity of cheap systems for the expensive ones? Quantity has a quality all its own, and if we throw enough drones at a carrier, it’s going to die. Again, no. In theory, you could overwhelm a carrier by throwing drones at it, but for cases where the “drones” aren’t just cruise missiles, this is like attempting to break down a door by throwing mashed potatoes at it.”
paulpauper 3y ago
drones are more versatile
- cwillu 3y ago
  Not meaningfully for the purposes they're being applied here: drones are cheap, and will eventually arrive (if they're not shot down first), and so you can launch a bunch of them and make a credible claim to your people that you've taken the matter seriously, while not actually costing much or risking a huge retaliation in response to your alpha strike.
cwillu 3y ago
It's looking like this whole thing might have been theatre for their own population: they've now been seen to have taken severe enough action to have received international military defense and condemnation, without going so far as to provoke retaliation.
- bradley13 3y ago
  Exactly this. The announcements in advance "we will attack", "it's going to be huuuge" - if they were serious, it would have been idiotic to give their opponent warning. Then the supermassive attack...is about what Ukraine deals with every week, only Israel has allies helping it defend. Honestly, Iran looks pretty stupid here. But I'm sure their internal propaganda frames it differently.
  - skissane 3y ago
    > Honestly, Iran looks pretty stupid here They've performed a real world test on how their weapons perform against Israeli air defences. And the results of the test were not impressive. But no doubt they've gathered lots of real world data, which they can use to inform the development of their next generation of weapons. And no doubt they'll share that data with Russia and China. Because a lot of Israel's air defences is based on technology shared with the US and other US allies, so whatever Iran learns from this might end up being applicable in conflicts in other parts of the globe Maybe not such a stupid decision after all
tguvot 3y ago
you can relax. there were also cruise and ballistic missiles. timed to arrive at ~same time. probably attempt to overload air defense
- cwillu 3y ago
  There were no ballistic missiles, that report was confirmed false.
  - tguvot 3y ago
    yeah. and this is why idf speaker jumped into live tv and said that missiles were lunched. after this entire south was covered by air defense alerts and high altitude interceptors were launched.
    - cwillu 3y ago
      Cruise missiles are not ballistic missiles, and even if it was just drones, it would be stupid to not prepare for the possibility of ballistic missiles.
      - tguvot 3y ago
        cruise missiles were launched more than hour ago. it were ballistic missiles and to intercept were launched arrow 2/3 which work way up there and deal specifically with ballistic missiles
        cwillu 3y ago
        Sorry, I'm having some trouble understanding what you're saying. They have layered ballistic defense, and it's on alert. Are you saying that they've confirmed launches in an attempt to shoot down ballistic missiles they've spotted? Do you have any links to sources? Everything official I've read seems to confirm my understanding, and there has only been one unconfirmed source claiming otherwise that I've seen.
wslh 3y ago
You are seeing an snapshot, we don't know if something comes next.

ChrisArchitect 3y ago

[dupe] Some more discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40025617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40025617