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It's interesting that the "housing crisis" is exclusively a supply-side problem and the demand-side is never considered. With the lowest birthrate in 100 years
by tonymet 3y ago
It's interesting that the "housing crisis" is exclusively a supply-side problem and the demand-side is never considered.
With the lowest birthrate in 100 years, and the deathrate at record highs, how is it possible that we have a supply problem? 15 years ago the Economist forecasted a glut in housing supply.
What is driving demand and why is it never mentioned?
- focusgroup0 3y agoHow many undocumented migrants have arrived in CA in the past 4 years? Is California building housing or infrastructure (healthcare, energy, transit) sufficient to meet the influx?
- tonymet 3y agoYale , MIT revised nationwide number up to 22 mil this year. since they settle predominantly in the southwest that would be 20-30% of the population . An unmanageable figure even for policy proponents
- koolba 3y agoThe US has millions of legal immigrants every year and also has had a record number of illegal immigrants the past few years(some estimates says 10M since Biden to office). That more than makes up for lower birth rates.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoArrests for illegal border crossings is at a record number, but that is a very different thing from the number of illegal immigrants in the USA. See https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32 https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexi... You can get more arrests simply by catching more people crossing the border with more border officers or better technology. Also, coyotes are using swarming techniques now, which means they expect a certain number of migrants are going to get caught, but the border patrol will be overwhelmed and miss the rest (pay extra to be in “group B”).
- Retric 3y agoFor cities with the most extreme prices, demand is driven in part by larger increases in office space than housing. ‘Unaffordable’ cities for people can be very attractive for businesses due to the local workforce, and for cities office space doesn’t have downsides like the need for schools and similar infrastructure. That’s how you get extreme prices independent from national population trends. There’s other effects in play, increases in earnings and low interest rates allow for increased prices, but that doesn’t explain why housing specifically would be expensive.
- tonymet 3y agoI would like to see the inventory change rates compared to the population rates to understand the primary driver
- doitLP 3y agoLower birth rate can still mean population is increasing (for now). It’s just doing so at a slower rate and will eventually hit equilibrium and only then start to drop
- tonymet 3y agonot if the birth rate has been below replacement and the death rate is at record levels
- WorkerBee28474 3y agoThis is similar to Canada. All the talk is about 'build more homes' and none of it is about maybe not bringing in a million new immigrants in 9 months [0], which is an immigration rate of 3.3% of the population per year. And of course if you dare mention the insane immigration rate, you're liable to get labelled a racist. [0] https://globalnews.ca/news/10386750/canada-41-million-population/ https://globalnews.ca/news/10386750/canada-41-million-popula...
- tonymet 3y agoIt's a resource constraint issue . First step of any new administration should be to do an inventory and assess whether the population trajectory is sustainable.
- wolverine876 3y agoImmigration, legal and illegal. Just lookup US population growth.