5 ms·

Why do you think "bubble" will burst?

by sanxiyn 3y ago

ricopags 3y ago
Why do you use quotes? My reason would be NVDA sticker price.
- lupire 3y ago
  We've had 20+ years of industry vastly outpaying academia.
  - squigz 3y ago
    This is exactly what I was thinking - when is the "bubble" for IT in general going to burst?
    - pixl97 3y ago
      When software stops eating the world. No one sees that date on the horizon yet.
      - squigz 3y ago
        I don't foresee technology going anywhere, no
    - hattmall 3y ago
      It has reasonably already burst a few times. At this point IT is just a reactionary part of the broader economy. IT being a leading technology experiences bubbles with in itself at as new flavors come around just like any other industry. Like in 2017 there was a huge bubble in tile work with schluter all in one systems. Any reasonable tile layer could take two weekends of classes and start making about $1000 a day installing these new tile systems in commercial buildings. Now the hype is dead most tile jobs are just as they were. There was a bubble in insurance a few years ago with Medicaid advantage plans as well. Perhaps IT has more bubbles but on the whole comparatively salaries are falling in line with other industries.
      - squigz 3y ago
        Are they? https://codesubmit.io/blog/the-evolution-of-developer-salaries/ https://codesubmit.io/blog/the-evolution-of-developer-salari...
monero-xmr 3y ago
I have witnessed the same excitement and "never ending summer" psychology many times before. The cold winter always comes. We even had a big bubble recently with AI itself regarding self driving cars. It's amazing how every tech luminary went on stage and declared "This Year For Sure" to be when self driving cars would pick us all up... in 2019. It's perpetually 5 years away from mass deployment. Training LLMs has huge capital expenditure (capex) and is not producing revenues. As an anecdote, my brother in law works for a large 15k person Microsoft software shop, and they got a discount on their license renewal (yes, a discount) for including Github Copilot for every software engineer. We surmised this is to goose the number of "paying" licenses to help metrics. Extremely high salaries - extremely high capex - extremely high hype and gushing press - extremely nonexistent revenues (except for the pick and shovel sellers like NVDA) - this is a quintessential bubble in the making!
- pixl97 3y ago
  Eh, Until we have a "this is AGI" moment, self driving cars are going to be a pipe dream, so not sure if they are a great example. And, yea, put your money where you're mouth is with your investments... I think you'll quickly end up relearning what "The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent" actually means. Trying to put discounts on license renewals on LLMs not selling is missing what the hell is going on in the market outside of AI. It is rough out there and business spending in general is way down. Trying to lump that in with lack of AI adoption may be a mistake.
- nopinsight 3y ago
  “OpenAI's annual run rate—a measure of one month's revenue multiplied by 12—hit the $2 billion revenue mark in December 2023, two people familiar with the knowledge told the Financial Times.” https://qz.com/openai-will-make-2-billion-revenue-soon-tech-ai-chatgpt-1851247985 https://qz.com/openai-will-make-2-billion-revenue-soon-tech-... Several well-known professional services firms have already deployed AI for their workforces. Many software engineers, esp younger ones, use ChatGPT or its equivalent every day at work.
  - benreesman 3y ago
skywhopper 3y ago
Because they always do. Because if you're looking, you'll see all the weaknesses in the current generation of LLM tech. But even if everything were great about LLM tech and the promise was as unlimited as Sam Altman promises, the mere existence of a skyrocketing field attracts scammer founders and investors who drive valuations higher until they are unsustainable.
callalex 3y ago
When the CEO of Microsoft starts claiming insane things like “AI is a bigger invention than fire and electricity” it’s a huge red flag that investors are rabid and not based in reality.

Why do you think "bubble" will burst?

ricopags 3y ago

Why do you use quotes? My reason would be NVDA sticker price.

lupire 3y ago
We've had 20+ years of industry vastly outpaying academia.
- squigz 3y ago
  This is exactly what I was thinking - when is the "bubble" for IT in general going to burst?
  - pixl97 3y ago
    When software stops eating the world. No one sees that date on the horizon yet.
    - squigz 3y ago
      I don't foresee technology going anywhere, no
  - hattmall 3y ago
    It has reasonably already burst a few times. At this point IT is just a reactionary part of the broader economy. IT being a leading technology experiences bubbles with in itself at as new flavors come around just like any other industry. Like in 2017 there was a huge bubble in tile work with schluter all in one systems. Any reasonable tile layer could take two weekends of classes and start making about $1000 a day installing these new tile systems in commercial buildings. Now the hype is dead most tile jobs are just as they were. There was a bubble in insurance a few years ago with Medicaid advantage plans as well. Perhaps IT has more bubbles but on the whole comparatively salaries are falling in line with other industries.
    - squigz 3y ago
      Are they? https://codesubmit.io/blog/the-evolution-of-developer-salaries/ https://codesubmit.io/blog/the-evolution-of-developer-salari...

monero-xmr 3y ago

I have witnessed the same excitement and "never ending summer" psychology many times before. The cold winter always comes. We even had a big bubble recently with AI itself regarding self driving cars. It's amazing how every tech luminary went on stage and declared "This Year For Sure" to be when self driving cars would pick us all up... in 2019. It's perpetually 5 years away from mass deployment. Training LLMs has huge capital expenditure (capex) and is not producing revenues. As an anecdote, my brother in law works for a large 15k person Microsoft software shop, and they got a discount on their license renewal (yes, a discount) for including Github Copilot for every software engineer. We surmised this is to goose the number of "paying" licenses to help metrics. Extremely high salaries - extremely high capex - extremely high hype and gushing press - extremely nonexistent revenues (except for the pick and shovel sellers like NVDA) - this is a quintessential bubble in the making!

pixl97 3y ago
Eh, Until we have a "this is AGI" moment, self driving cars are going to be a pipe dream, so not sure if they are a great example. And, yea, put your money where you're mouth is with your investments... I think you'll quickly end up relearning what "The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent" actually means. Trying to put discounts on license renewals on LLMs not selling is missing what the hell is going on in the market outside of AI. It is rough out there and business spending in general is way down. Trying to lump that in with lack of AI adoption may be a mistake.
nopinsight 3y ago
“OpenAI's annual run rate—a measure of one month's revenue multiplied by 12—hit the $2 billion revenue mark in December 2023, two people familiar with the knowledge told the Financial Times.” https://qz.com/openai-will-make-2-billion-revenue-soon-tech-ai-chatgpt-1851247985 https://qz.com/openai-will-make-2-billion-revenue-soon-tech-... Several well-known professional services firms have already deployed AI for their workforces. Many software engineers, esp younger ones, use ChatGPT or its equivalent every day at work.
- benreesman 3y ago

skywhopper 3y ago

Because they always do. Because if you're looking, you'll see all the weaknesses in the current generation of LLM tech. But even if everything were great about LLM tech and the promise was as unlimited as Sam Altman promises, the mere existence of a skyrocketing field attracts scammer founders and investors who drive valuations higher until they are unsustainable.

callalex 3y ago

When the CEO of Microsoft starts claiming insane things like “AI is a bigger invention than fire and electricity” it’s a huge red flag that investors are rabid and not based in reality.