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Tesla releases Q1 2024 deliveries: disastrous results

155 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

testbf 3y ago
Well I’m a Tesla employee and I started looking for a new job today. There’s a lot of smart people who see where this is going.
- leosanchez 3y ago
  What happened?
  - gwill 3y ago
    probably in response to the content of the article.
  - afavour 3y ago
    I’m going to assume that awful Q1 results lead employees to suspect layoffs are on the way. I imagine they are correct.
    - voisin 3y ago
      Maybe not layoffs - maybe more the fact that their stock compensation will plummet in value as it is no longer a hyper growth stock. Also, the consequences of Elon’s misbehaviour has finally caught up with the branding so it is no longer cool to work there.
      - afavour 3y ago
        Again to Musk's reputation: he's not exactly layoff-averse. Even if it isn't strictly required I can't imagine he'd hesitate to pull the trigger.
    - Workaccount2 3y ago
      They should just do an offering. That stock has held it's stupidly massive over valuation for 5+ years now. Just dump it on whatever dumb ass investors have been propping the stock up.
      - ianburrell 3y ago
        Have you looked at Tesla stock recently? The stock is down 5% today to 166. It was 250 at beginning of year, so dropped 30%. The peak was 400 in 2021, and dropped to 113 in 2023. I think it is still overpriced and can drop further, but it has lost its shine. They will make less money from offering, and it would probably tank the stock. And there is no sign they need the money.
        Workaccount2 3y ago
        The company is currently valued at $530 billion. Compare this to Toyota, who sold 11 million cars last year (~20x Tesla), is worth $385 billion. It is still grossly over valued.
        gergi137 3y ago
        Tesla sold 1.8 million cars last year and Toyota sold 11.23 million cars last year. so a 6.2x multiple, not a ~20x multiple
- bethekind 3y ago
  Robot taxis not coming soon enough?
  - headmelted 3y ago
    I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream. Weren’t there also disclosure documents a couple of years ago when they were trying to license autopilot that said they believed internally they were at level 2 as opposed to 4/5? (I might be remembering this part wrong)
    - chgs 3y ago
      Do I taxis certainly aren’t just one man’s dream. Whether not not they are possible in the next 50 years is another matter, but plenty of people want them and are willing to invest in developing them.
    - AlexandrB 3y ago
      > I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream. If robo-taxis were ready with the kind of economics outlined by Musk it would be financially irresponsible to actually sell the cars to others instead of just building a massive Tesla fleet and pivoting towards transportation services. Tesla's still selling their cars? If so, then they're not robo-taxis. Edit: The other option for Tesla would be selling the cars for a high enough premium to offset the lost taxi revenue. The fact that Tesla seems to be in a price war with other EV makers is not a promising sign for robo-taxis.
    - akmarinov 3y ago
      Everyone knows they’re at level 2. Level 4/5 is completely hands off, no supervision. Not even their Supervised Full Self Driving does that
  - trogdor 3y ago
    They’re here. Just not from Tesla.
- KennyBlanken 3y ago
  "Lot of smart people who see where this is going"...uh huh. The smart people left years ago and started working at Lucid and elsewhere. All the people who had talent got sick of Musk's shit, saw the company stagnating, and left for functional, non-toxic workplaces. Tesla has spent the last ~5 years resting on its laurels, aside from (eventually) producing a pavement-queen meme vehicle that breaks down on even the simplest off-roading tests and gets stuck on beaches. Oh, and slightly tweaking the Model 3's looks, I guess that's...something. Your cars have completely stagnant styling, terrible reliability (matched with even worse parts availability!), the worst interiors in their class, the worst build quality, and they're no longer kings in anything - not efficiency, range, performance, or charging speed. Your company was at the forefront of removing physical switches and moving to screen-based and capacitive-touch controls, both reviled by the public and coming under increasing scrutiny by regulators. Your cars have the highest crash rate of any automaker. Tesla's "autopilot" has been surpassed by several manufacturers whose systems don't randomly slam on the brakes (or, for that matter, into the backs of police cruisers.) Here's a 2008 blog post about V2G: https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging ...and sixteen years later your cars still can't do it. Hyundais and Kias can... Your cars are still stuck on 400V (sorry, "480") architecture while years ago other companies went to 800v. VW/Audi/Porsche, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and Lucid are all on 800v. And while "V4" stations have been deployed, they're all still 400v 'under the hood'. 800v CCS has been slow to roll out, but it's actually been If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit?
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    All those smart people really turned Lucid into a hypergrowth company.
  - JohnBooty 3y ago
    If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit? I feel that there's a large mismatch between the parent post and your reply? It feels like you both think that Tesla's facing some major problems and is not on a good trajectory?
  - FireBeyond 3y ago
toomuchtodo 3y ago
Interest rates and vehicle prices too high, must come down to expand TAM. Future benchmark rate cuts should improve affordability (most people finance and buy a payment), but Tesla will need to navigate burn rate until central bank pivots.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  It's a global issue. Even BYD's sales crashed by almost 50% [0] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-may-hand-back-top-ev-seller-title-tesla-after-q1-sales-decline-2024-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-ma...
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - addicted 3y ago
    Those are sequential sales. YoY BYD is up 13%. TSLA sales are down sequentially but more relevantly also YoY.
    - skillpass 3y ago
      Article says they’re still up year over year > 431,000 deliveries would still be a small growth year-over-ear[sic]
      - macintux 3y ago
        431k was the consensus estimate recently. The real number was below 390k.
    - headmelted 3y ago
      Right but when do I get my cheap Tesla?
    - zer00eyz 3y ago
      BYD is a state backed enterprise. The rest of chinas EV market is in Freefall (plant closures) and much of their output is of a quality level you would expect from china.
ayan 3y ago
i hope elon's behavior is part of the drop in demand. i'm afraid it is mostly economic though.
- ddoolin 3y ago
  I shared this in my other comment, but there is some support for that notion: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-be-tesla-buyers-snub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...
  - ayan 3y ago
    great article. i have a tesla -- it is a great car. i regret that elon is such an awful person and i will definitely look elsewhere before buying another. at least as long as he's involved.
    - cmsj 3y ago
      Tesla should be absolutely terrified of this. I think lots of us would love to like Elon, but the man is such a disgrace that we are actively disincentivised to root for his success.
    - rvnx 3y ago
      I really hope it will support stalks soon or have turn indicators actually placed on left+right.
    - jghn 3y ago
      I went from assuming that a Tesla would be my next car to assuming that an EV that's not a Tesla will be my next car. All because of Musk.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  Or the reality that there is lot more options so people gravitate towards them. And brand loyalty might also be a thing, of which there is lot for also other brands.
ddoolin 3y ago
This may be related as well, in a smaller way: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-be-tesla-buyers-snub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...
- epistasis 3y ago
  I ask owners of other EV vehicles how they like their car, and >50% of my sample size of ~10 bring up "at least it's not owned by that crazy man" as a big reason as they explain the other deficiencies. (Mostly bad controls, UX, etc. stuff that the Tesla gets right.) I have a Tesla Model 3 right now and it's my favorite car ever, by far, but I also will be unlikely to buy another tesla. It's not the same company as six years ago.
  - brtkdotse 3y ago
    I chose a Kia eNiro because it had ”bad” but predictable controls/UX. Basically a normal, boring car with dedicated buttons for most things, but with a EV drivetrain.
    - Stratoscope 3y ago
      Same with my Kia EV6. After driving my old Kia Rondo for 15 years, I felt right at home in the EV6. Traditional stalks for lights and wipers, all kinds of dedicated buttons, familiar and comfortable. Kia went to quite some work to make it feel like a regular car.
  - ein0p 3y ago
    Funny, I'm considering buying our second Tesla (to replace my BMW) because the company _is_ run by Musk. I'm also big fan of not dictating what other people should say, and find his direct communication style refreshing, even though I disagree with some of his opinions. And that's before we even bring up several other areas where he's successfully doing civilizationally impactful work.
    - 3y ago
ilrwbwrkhv 3y ago
A CEO that doesn't take responsibility is a major issue. Unfortunately shareholders will have to punish him.
- CharlesW 3y ago
  Yep. Unfortunately, Telsa's toothless board is mostly friends and family.
- wklauss 3y ago
  How? The board won't remove Elon. Tanking the stock price won't hurt him much (but it will hurt shareholders)
alkibiades 3y ago
top down government technology mandates never work. the early adopters and rich california folks all already have EVs. normal people don’t want them toyota was right and that’s why i got their hybrid vehicle instead of an EV
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- afavour 3y ago
  I’m a “normal person” and I’d love one. But they’re too expensive and the charging situation near me isn’t great.
  - AlexandrB 3y ago
    When talking about market demand, the only thing that matters is how many people will actually spend money on the thing. Wanting something hypothetically if a bunch of additional conditions are met doesn't really help Tesla. Basically, Toyota was right.
  - Ajedi32 3y ago
    It sounds like you like the idea of EVs but not the reality. I'm in the same boat; it's a cool technology, just not currently very practical for my situation. Maybe future technology and infrastructure improvements will change that someday, but we aren't there yet, at least not for me.
    - afavour 3y ago
      Right, as much as anything I was addressing the OP's statement "top down government technology mandates never work". Some technologies need top down help to achieve viability and to my mind EVs fit that bill. If the government help bootstrap the industry it could easily achieve viability over the years. It's hardly without precedent: would car travel be the same without the interstate highway system?
  - stephenitis 3y ago
foobarian 3y ago
Maybe we're getting to saturation in early adopter market? Looking around, there are a lot of folks who could not easily live with a BEV, i.e. live in apartment buildings or don't have an easy way to install L2 charging at home.
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  I agree this is part of it. There are still many parts of the USA where charging is a real concern, as is the need to drive beyond the vehicle's range (I do that several times a month, and would worry about charging along the way or at my destination).
- hn72774 3y ago
  I'm a recent first time buyer of a (used) EV and use the L1 120v charger that came with the vehicle. The daily commute use is low enough that it charges to full overnight. Before I purchased I thought I'd need to pay for a L2 charger and hire an electrician to install a 240v circuit in the driveway. Turned it that I just needed a short 10ga extension cord from an existing 120v receptacle. Our household have a second ICE for longer trips. I live in a house though, not an apartment.
  - Workaccount2 3y ago
    I think one of the biggest enemies of EV adoption is that people just don't intrinsically understand that "refueling" is fundamentally different.
    - thrill 3y ago
      And they are constantly badgered to not gain that understanding.
    - hn72774 3y ago
      That was me. I had to do my own research to educate myself. I've done a couple longer trips where the battery goes to 20%. It took a few nights of charging to get it back to 100%. Which was totally fine because our daily use is less than 15 miles per day. When I was ready to buy, I knew more about EV's than the person who sold me the vehicle. The amount of false information I got from the salesperson was worrisome. Even the amount of sales tax he quoted on the first offer was wrong.
matthewfelgate 3y ago
Are Tesla sales levelling off? I'm not convinced that electric cars are going to be mainstream, apart at the high end, for a few decades.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  > Are Tesla sales levelling off? No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off". EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.
- sp332 3y ago
  It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/ https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...
  - JKCalhoun 3y ago
    Dropping prices are what are going to move EVs IMHO. On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. My understanding is that the battery is the expensive component — and I understand the prices of those keep coming down.
    - dragontamer 3y ago
      > On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles. That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety. Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly. ----------- And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly. A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.
shrubble 3y ago
Is there any evidence that the best-fit portions of the market are getting saturated. There are plenty of places in the USA where an ICE vehicle is just a better fit, given usage patterns, lack of charging facilities etc.
- fuzzfactor 3y ago
  Well, it's a specialty item that can substitute for a very popular mainstream one in a number of popular use cases. And come close to substituting in a number of cases that might still lead to a bit of rapid adoption. More ideal as an incremental acquisition for many of those who already possess the mainstream merchandise. Not so much desirability for those that would have to choose one or the other. So that's a smaller subset of the niche. Then there are those who find the novel solution is superior for their particular needs, an even smaller subset, but more enthusiastic. Seems like the behavior would be to fly off the shelf until the subsets of the mainstream have been saturated, then plateau at the rate that the mainstream becomes amenable to replacement. At the smallest of scale, like with handcrafted items, it can occasionally be easy to do well financially as long as you can sell all you can make. This can happen when they're "flying off the shelf" so there can be relentless pressure to just make more, and the pressure can seem unending when there is a multi-year timeline for any scale-up activities. If the market matures at a less-giga-than-anticipated level, and you end up in the process of building more than you can sell on an ongoing basis, you have reversed the financial opportunity that was supposed to accrue by building more to begin with. One day when you wake up and can no longer sell all you can make for some reason, it's a whole different ball game.
ta8645 3y ago
Not sure how it will affect things going forward, but the Model 3 may help. Jay Leno did an excellent segment about it a few weeks back, with a pair of Tesla engineers: https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU
- onion2k 3y ago
  Making more Model 3s than Tesla can sell is a big part of the problem. The Model 3 and Y account for 43,000 out of the 46,000 unit overrun.
  - moogly 3y ago
    Tesla don't even dare show the Model 3 numbers. I suspect they are very, very low in comparison to the Model Y, looking at official sales numbers tracked in other countries. If I were a Tesla stockholder I would be very disappointed in Tesla not breaking down sales like every other car manufacturer does. It's starting to look increasingly boneheaded to spend time and money on the Cybertruck instead of a new lower-cost SUV (the Model Y isn't really a SUV in my book). Their platform is starting to feel dated compared to the competition. I'm sure some stuff from the Cybertruck platform will trickle down to the next like steer-by-wire and 800 V (which they are catching up on), but since I don't build cars, I don't know how amenable that platform is to build normal cars on.
  - LUmBULtERA 3y ago
    Production constraints could be a regional problem. Model 3 highland only recently started showing up in inventory in the US and for now, it's only the standard range models and there are no inventory discounts. No long-range models are showing up in inventory (for me at least?). Plenty of Y are in inventory. I'd have bought one in Q1 but I don't qualify for the tax credit, so I went used.
- sf_rob 3y ago
  Until Tesla changes their Model 3 sourcing to be eligible for the $7500 tax credit, I don’t understand who would buy one over the Model Y even with the “highland” improvements.
monkeydust 3y ago
So trying to establish how to attribute this to: - World wide supply issues (Red Sea) - TSLA specific issues (Strikes, Pay Dispute) - Overall demand for EVs - to this factor, any good benchmarks out there to establish demand?
- onion2k 3y ago
  It's not an under-supply problem that supply chain or unions or demand would cause. It's an over-supply problem. Tesla made 46,000 more cars than it could sell.
- themaninthedark 3y ago
  Rivian is not doing well either: https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/02/rivian-started-a-tough-year-on-a-flat-foot/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/02/rivian-started-a-tough-yea... In addition Ford, Lucid and Fisker are also scaling back and not selling EV's as well. I think this points to a falling EV market.
  - monkeydust 3y ago
    Txs, yes sentiment clearly seems to have shifted down. 6 months ago I was sold on my next daily driver being fully electric but now looking at hybrid (phev)
nixgeek 3y ago
Some friends bought a Model X about six months ago, spending over $100k — that’s down from the almost $150k that Tesla was demanding a couple years ago when we bought one (and both were fairly fully loaded). First, my experience 2 years ago was the A/C compressor was so loud that during summer with cooling running at maximum, you couldn’t hold a conversation in the cabin because of the noise. Tesla investigated and eventually said “looks fine to us, there isn’t designed to be any additional noise abatement on the firewall between the front and the passenger space”. We had issues with our Falcon Wing doors, and we eventually sold the vehicle after a year. Now, our friends Model X, that’s had ~6 non-trivial maintenance problems in six months, including the Falcon Wing doors failing three times, and they’re in the process of trying to get a refund through Lemon Laws. Other acquaintances who own Teslas also have service issues on their Model X, the Cybertruck looks like an even worse mess, so I concluded over a span of multiple years, quality still isn’t a strong suit of Tesla, thus I’m not shocked to see there’s limited brand loyaly, and with increasingly viable competition, demand is falling? I now have a Rivian R1S and we are incredibly happy with that vehicle, having put about 6000 miles on it. Mercedes EQS also seems like a reasonable choice in 2024, depending on what you want.
- ChumpGPT 3y ago
  You're not buying quality when you buy Tesla, you're buying fashion. if you want quality buy a Toyota/Lexus.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    I'm a big fan of Toyota Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime. (High efficiency vehicles, Prius Prime is #1 most green car of ACEEE list, etc. etc.). But people buying Tesla aren't aligned to Toyota. But a better match to culture is likely Jeep Wrangler 4xe. Incredible offroading performance, reasonable towing capacity, large size / in-your-face advertising to some extent. And electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly. Etc. etc. There's a lot of competition these days. People who buy Toyota / Honda are people who care #1 about reliability and simplicity. But "Tesla Buyers" are more excited about niche features or feeling like their car can do something other cars cannot do (even if they never actually use that feature). And honestly, vehicles like Jeep Wrangler 4xe are best suited for that mindset. --------------- Or the new Dodge Charger EV. Now that Stellantis is making their EV push, I think Stellantis has better branding for what the stereotypical Tesla Buyer is going for... without the awfulness associated with Elon.
hibikir 3y ago
I could see this coming weeks ago: My local dealer was cold-calling existing owners to try to get them to buy the updated model 3, which isn't a very significant update at all. They had a bunch on the lot that weren't selling. We can also see the promotion of a free trial for self-driving as a response to this too: Hoping some people bite after trying it out. Whether that happens, or we just see more videos of failed self-driving is another story. Either way, Tesla hasn't done much to improve their normal models in 2 years. The cybertruck is barely in production, and it's hard to see it as having massive demand. Elon's cultural alignment with people that at the same time are being told that electric vehicles will be bad for America is probably not great for sales on either side of the cultural divide. Add high interest rates, and it's unsurprising to see trouble. But does anyone have enough shares to try to force Tesla to make significant changes in diection? Unlikely.
- olivermuty 3y ago
  Isn’t Teslas whole schtick that they are dealer-free? Where is this? Is it a franchise?
  - mattw2121 3y ago
    He probably meant the local, Tesla employed, sales person or sales manager. Tesla has showrooms all over the country.
    - olivermuty 3y ago
      Interesting. Tesla in Norway is all JIT sales. Cars are ordered and come straight from the docks to the customer. I did not expect Tesla showrooms in the us to carry stock. Maybe walkin purchases are more common across the pond
- kylecordes 3y ago
  It seems like Tesla should focus on updating the Model Y, which is by far their best-selling model, instead of the 3. The typical US consumer is not all that excited about sedans anyway.
VBprogrammer 3y ago
Tesla are still producing cars which have the same design elements as the Model S did in 2012. I'm amazed they have pulled that off but maybe the lack of "freshness" is also hurting their bottom line?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- akmarinov 3y ago
  Model S and X aren’t big volume movers. The 3 and Y are, that’s why they’re getting refreshes.
seydor 3y ago
(at least internationally) Tesla has failed so far to provide a low cost EV when all their competitors already have. There is a limited number of people who buy them for the prestige factor, but it s a small population. I m thinking of a Volvo EV but would consider a Tesla if they had one in the same category/price ranges. Pretty much nobody cares if it's self driving
kylecordes 3y ago
"Disastrous" seems like a significant overstatement. To me this looks more like "unsurprising". Tesla has some additional business lines which might eventually prove quite valuable, but in the short to medium term it is mostly a car company. The whole car industry is dealing with the results of higher interest rates. It would be much more surprising if Tesla somehow turned out to be immune to that.
- addicted 3y ago
  It’s below estimates, so it’s by definition “surprising” relative to the people whose business it is to predict these things. Disastrous may be going too far unless it portends further drops going forward. But disastrous may also be the right word because Tesla’s valuation is based entirely on massive growth. So even if this means Tesla will start growing fairly normally as opposed to rapidly, that’s bad for Tesla stock.
  - FireBeyond 3y ago
    There is suspicion that Tesla always seemed to just exceed predictions, predictably. I'm sure plenty of people made money when "oh look, another quarter of exceeding expected results".
- xeromal 3y ago
  Any reaction to bad news for Elon Musk businesses are outsized for the amount of hate people have for him. I'd say the hate is pretty well-deserved but I also value SpaceX and Tesla tremendously and I hope they continue taking us into the future.
- cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago
  It was literally under target. That’s the definition of surprising. It comes as no surprises that the rest of your comment either looks for positives or places the blame on conditions affecting the auto industry at large. Can Tesla do no wrong?
- NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
  The market doesn't knock $30bn off the value of your company at the open if your results were "unsurprising".
oldpersonintx 3y ago
EVs will crawl out of their trough of disillusionment it will take time though in ten years there will be vastly more EVs than today ICE is still on the way out
MisterBastahrd 3y ago
Tesla's target consumer is not the sort of person who shares Musk's personal or political views. Add the facts that you can't even be sure what you're going to get when you buy one of their cars, that the company has constantly overpromised and underdelivered, interest rates are high, and there's simply more competition in the electric space... why buy a Tesla? Aside from all of that, Musk's views on his expectations from employees alone would have been enough to turn me off from ever purchasing one of those cars.
hn72774 3y ago
Could it be that Musk's inflammatory language and behaviors are a turn off for potential buyers? They are a turn off for me. I like the vehicles but I'd never get one.
- jborden13 3y ago
  I think there are lots of us.
  - drcongo 3y ago
    Same. If I wanted to project that image I'd just paint a swastika on my existing car.
- FredPret 3y ago
  It's such a shame that he's sullying his reputation like this. Howard Hughes-like. He could have retired in a blaze of glory a couple of years ago, straight into the pantheon of epic American entrepreneurs.
  - dralley 3y ago
    His behavior isn't the only Howard Hughes callback. The entire Cybertruck project screams it.
    - smallmancontrov 3y ago
      Apparently Henry Ford bought a newspaper (the Dearborn Independent) to publish his opinions on jews. History sure does rhyme. What is it with car CEOs?
      - FredPret 3y ago
        If it rhymes this much, it's bad news for Musk but fantastic for Tesla. Ford has generated a ridiculous amount of shareholder returns over the years and makes good cars today.
FredPret 3y ago
Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA. But they don't really have an SUV, which is by far the most popular form factor. The Model Y is closest but it's still a bit car-ish. Interest rates are up. Their chairman is going through a very public ...episode. They'll definitely overcome the headwinds: they still have superfans despite the Musk antics; they have lower leverage than GM/F [0]; there's a lot of regulatory pressure coming down the pipes over the next 10-30 years to phase out ICE engines. [0]: https://valustox.com/GM https://valustox.com/GM https://valustox.com/F https://valustox.com/F https://valustox.com/TSLA https://valustox.com/TSLA
- spacemadness 3y ago
  Good luck with that thesis and sorry for your loss.
  - FredPret 3y ago
    I’m a value investor and wouldn’t touch Tesla for at least another 10 years
- mikestew 3y ago
  Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA. Here in Redmond, where buying a Tesla seems to be a rite of passage for Microsoft employees, I will often see three Teslas at an intersection (and maybe one behind me). The things are everywhere. If you've got a dead cat, careful you don't hit a Tesla when you swing it around. And I've seen a total of one Cybertruck. Either not that many have been made and shipped, or no one is buying. People do love trucks, and they even love electric ones because I seen Rivians all the time (and a few Lightnings). But I've only seen the one lonely, butt-ugly Cybertruck.
  - coldpie 3y ago
    > I've seen a Cybertruck Oofda. I'm sorry you had to experience that.
luuurker 3y ago
I'm not sure if the latest Model 3 upgrade is going to sell as well as the previous ones. Some changes are bad. Eg: Someone I know struggles with turn signals. We have a few roundabouts here and it can be a bit confusing on tighter turns when the buttons are upside down.
AlexandrB 3y ago
Setting aside the antics of the CEO, Teslas are increasingly unappealing. I don't want a "yoke", I don't want everything on a touch screen, and I don't want to try to navigate a roundabout using signal buttons on a steering wheel in the winter. I do want CarPlay. A lot of this stuff is blatant cost-cutting with a fig leaf of "it's futuristic".
- archagon 3y ago
  I think the problem is that Musk is injecting more and more of his “design” philosophy into everything. This does not inspire confidence. Tesla needed a new CEO yesterday.
exitzer0 3y ago
Some things to think about. - Tesla's charging network is opening up. I think this used to be the single biggest selling point. - Tesla's repairability is not great, neither are the insurance rates. - The 4680's have not exactly changed the world... might have made things cheaper for Tesla but that is about it. - Some folks might think that Teslas aversion to buttons has reached peak dumb. Latest model 3 has even ditched the turn signals and drive-selector stalks... - Requiring FSD demos prior to sales? GTFO. - Musk is officially more of a liability than an asset.
screenoridesaga 3y ago
Ok we had our one hour of HN reality, now the post making national news off the page and the we are back in fansty land.
aeturnum 3y ago
Lots of talk about how Musk's controversies are hurting the company (agree!) but I think a bigger problem may be his tendency to hyper-focus on things. Many tesla models have not received significant updates or styling changes in years. Tesla is no longer brand new, the oldest production Model S'es are ~12 years old. Many of their changes have been along the line of company-wide changes or upgrades (which are also good) but people like having their new car look new, not like one from a decade ago. It feels like Musks companies suffer from hyperfocus, probably because effort is directed by the his attention, but car companies can't work like that.
JeremyNT 3y ago
This seems largely to be blogspam. There is a less clickbaity version from Reuters [0]. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-first-quarter-deliveries-miss-expectations-2024-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...
stephenitis 3y ago
Tesla Minivan incoming to save the day. Make a safety and family oriented cool van and I'll buy one
hnburnsy 3y ago
For comparison GM's total EV sales for Q1 2024 were 16,425, down 15% from 19,305 in Q4 2023. GM's total sales were down 1.5%
vondur 3y ago
I think the market is tapped out for EV's at the moment. Most people seem to want plug in hybrids vs. full EV's.
hnburnsy 3y ago
Some other context As of Q3 2022, Tesla’s profit margins stand out significantly compared to its competitors: Gross profit per car: $15,653 Net profit per car: $9,574 In comparison, other major automakers have lower profit margins: General Motors (GM): Gross profit per car of $3,818 and net profit per car of $2,150. Toyota: Gross profit per car of $3,925 and net profit per car of $1,197. Volkswagen (VW): Gross profit per car of $6,034 and net profit per car of $973. Hyundai: Gross profit per car of $5,362 and net profit per car of $927.
- kstrauser 3y ago
  What's the difference between gross profit and net profit?
  - stephenitis 3y ago
    Gross profit is the money a company makes after subtracting the cost of producing its goods or services. Net profit is what remains after all expenses, like operating costs, taxes, and interest, are deducted from the gross profit.
    - kstrauser 3y ago
      Ah, so gross profit is kind of like "this is how much we profited off this specific car", and net profit is "this is the average of how much we profited off all these cars"?
      - yread 3y ago
        gross profit is "money we got for selling this car" - "all per car expenses". Net profit is - "all the other expenses a company has"
- mkipper 3y ago
  You seem to know where to find these numbers (I don't), so do you know how that stacks up with luxury car manufacturers? Most of those companies do compete with Tesla, but the price range of a Tesla ($40k to $90k for most models) lines up much more closely with Audi and BMW than any of those companies. I'd imagine that those companies would have higher gross margins if they didn't sell any cheap models or trims levels.
stephenitis 3y ago
Does anyone know by what measure/scale other major car manufacturers over produce vehicles in a year? I suspect Tesla has wiggle room to discount this batch of vehicles to get them out the door quickly, the rebate will be built into the price of the vehicles this year so i'm curious how much that will reflect in the price drop.
TradingPlaces 3y ago
Others are gaining market share fast, especially on S/X vs. German luxury EVs. But the whole industry is far behind where they thought total vehicle sales would be in 2023-2024, the cause being high loan/lease payments in the US, and weak Chinese consumer demand overall. So part of this is unique to Tesla, but part is an industry that was expecting 2023-4 to be much better than it has been so far.
aaomidi 3y ago
I have a Tesla with EAP. I’m not buying another Tesla unless I can transfer this over. Not with the prices for software DLCs they have today. What’s fascinating is that they have this transfer for FSD, but not EAP. Anyone from Tesla sales reading this, reach out to me and you may have a customer :)
nunez 3y ago
Not surprising. They are experiencing serious scaling difficulties with the new "Highland" Model 3. The community [0] thinks that there are supply chain issues with several components in the Long Range variant of these cars, the white seats being especially bottlenecked. [0] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-waiting-room.319421/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-...
deleted 3y ago
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nojvek 3y ago
I have a feeling most people who want a Tesla already have a Tesla. Now Tesla has to fight and sway those who are looking to purchase their next vehicle. It doesn’t help that Elon is playing politics and driving a large crowd away from Tesla brand. Also there are many repair horror stories. So the brand seems tainted.

155 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

Well I’m a Tesla employee and I started looking for a new job today. There’s a lot of smart people who see where this is going.

leosanchez 3y ago
What happened?
- gwill 3y ago
  probably in response to the content of the article.
- afavour 3y ago
  I’m going to assume that awful Q1 results lead employees to suspect layoffs are on the way. I imagine they are correct.
  - voisin 3y ago
    Maybe not layoffs - maybe more the fact that their stock compensation will plummet in value as it is no longer a hyper growth stock. Also, the consequences of Elon’s misbehaviour has finally caught up with the branding so it is no longer cool to work there.
    - afavour 3y ago
      Again to Musk's reputation: he's not exactly layoff-averse. Even if it isn't strictly required I can't imagine he'd hesitate to pull the trigger.
  - Workaccount2 3y ago
    They should just do an offering. That stock has held it's stupidly massive over valuation for 5+ years now. Just dump it on whatever dumb ass investors have been propping the stock up.
    - ianburrell 3y ago
      Have you looked at Tesla stock recently? The stock is down 5% today to 166. It was 250 at beginning of year, so dropped 30%. The peak was 400 in 2021, and dropped to 113 in 2023. I think it is still overpriced and can drop further, but it has lost its shine. They will make less money from offering, and it would probably tank the stock. And there is no sign they need the money.
      - Workaccount2 3y ago
        The company is currently valued at $530 billion. Compare this to Toyota, who sold 11 million cars last year (~20x Tesla), is worth $385 billion. It is still grossly over valued.
        gergi137 3y ago
        Tesla sold 1.8 million cars last year and Toyota sold 11.23 million cars last year. so a 6.2x multiple, not a ~20x multiple
bethekind 3y ago
Robot taxis not coming soon enough?
- headmelted 3y ago
  I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream. Weren’t there also disclosure documents a couple of years ago when they were trying to license autopilot that said they believed internally they were at level 2 as opposed to 4/5? (I might be remembering this part wrong)
  - chgs 3y ago
    Do I taxis certainly aren’t just one man’s dream. Whether not not they are possible in the next 50 years is another matter, but plenty of people want them and are willing to invest in developing them.
  - AlexandrB 3y ago
    > I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream. If robo-taxis were ready with the kind of economics outlined by Musk it would be financially irresponsible to actually sell the cars to others instead of just building a massive Tesla fleet and pivoting towards transportation services. Tesla's still selling their cars? If so, then they're not robo-taxis. Edit: The other option for Tesla would be selling the cars for a high enough premium to offset the lost taxi revenue. The fact that Tesla seems to be in a price war with other EV makers is not a promising sign for robo-taxis.
  - akmarinov 3y ago
    Everyone knows they’re at level 2. Level 4/5 is completely hands off, no supervision. Not even their Supervised Full Self Driving does that
- trogdor 3y ago
  They’re here. Just not from Tesla.
KennyBlanken 3y ago
"Lot of smart people who see where this is going"...uh huh. The smart people left years ago and started working at Lucid and elsewhere. All the people who had talent got sick of Musk's shit, saw the company stagnating, and left for functional, non-toxic workplaces. Tesla has spent the last ~5 years resting on its laurels, aside from (eventually) producing a pavement-queen meme vehicle that breaks down on even the simplest off-roading tests and gets stuck on beaches. Oh, and slightly tweaking the Model 3's looks, I guess that's...something. Your cars have completely stagnant styling, terrible reliability (matched with even worse parts availability!), the worst interiors in their class, the worst build quality, and they're no longer kings in anything - not efficiency, range, performance, or charging speed. Your company was at the forefront of removing physical switches and moving to screen-based and capacitive-touch controls, both reviled by the public and coming under increasing scrutiny by regulators. Your cars have the highest crash rate of any automaker. Tesla's "autopilot" has been surpassed by several manufacturers whose systems don't randomly slam on the brakes (or, for that matter, into the backs of police cruisers.) Here's a 2008 blog post about V2G: https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging ...and sixteen years later your cars still can't do it. Hyundais and Kias can... Your cars are still stuck on 400V (sorry, "480") architecture while years ago other companies went to 800v. VW/Audi/Porsche, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and Lucid are all on 800v. And while "V4" stations have been deployed, they're all still 400v 'under the hood'. 800v CCS has been slow to roll out, but it's actually been If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit?
- panick21_ 3y ago
  All those smart people really turned Lucid into a hypergrowth company.
- JohnBooty 3y ago
  If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit? I feel that there's a large mismatch between the parent post and your reply? It feels like you both think that Tesla's facing some major problems and is not on a good trajectory?
- FireBeyond 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Interest rates and vehicle prices too high, must come down to expand TAM. Future benchmark rate cuts should improve affordability (most people finance and buy a payment), but Tesla will need to navigate burn rate until central bank pivots.

alephnerd 3y ago
It's a global issue. Even BYD's sales crashed by almost 50% [0] [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-may-hand-back-top-ev-seller-title-tesla-after-q1-sales-decline-2024-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-ma...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- addicted 3y ago
  Those are sequential sales. YoY BYD is up 13%. TSLA sales are down sequentially but more relevantly also YoY.
  - skillpass 3y ago
    Article says they’re still up year over year > 431,000 deliveries would still be a small growth year-over-ear[sic]
    - macintux 3y ago
      431k was the consensus estimate recently. The real number was below 390k.
  - headmelted 3y ago
    Right but when do I get my cheap Tesla?
  - zer00eyz 3y ago
    BYD is a state backed enterprise. The rest of chinas EV market is in Freefall (plant closures) and much of their output is of a quality level you would expect from china.

ayan 3y ago

i hope elon's behavior is part of the drop in demand. i'm afraid it is mostly economic though.

ddoolin 3y ago
I shared this in my other comment, but there is some support for that notion: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-be-tesla-buyers-snub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...
- ayan 3y ago
  great article. i have a tesla -- it is a great car. i regret that elon is such an awful person and i will definitely look elsewhere before buying another. at least as long as he's involved.
  - cmsj 3y ago
    Tesla should be absolutely terrified of this. I think lots of us would love to like Elon, but the man is such a disgrace that we are actively disincentivised to root for his success.
  - rvnx 3y ago
    I really hope it will support stalks soon or have turn indicators actually placed on left+right.
  - jghn 3y ago
    I went from assuming that a Tesla would be my next car to assuming that an EV that's not a Tesla will be my next car. All because of Musk.
Ekaros 3y ago
Or the reality that there is lot more options so people gravitate towards them. And brand loyalty might also be a thing, of which there is lot for also other brands.

ddoolin 3y ago

This may be related as well, in a smaller way: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-be-tesla-buyers-snub-company-musks-reputation-dips-2024-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...

epistasis 3y ago
I ask owners of other EV vehicles how they like their car, and >50% of my sample size of ~10 bring up "at least it's not owned by that crazy man" as a big reason as they explain the other deficiencies. (Mostly bad controls, UX, etc. stuff that the Tesla gets right.) I have a Tesla Model 3 right now and it's my favorite car ever, by far, but I also will be unlikely to buy another tesla. It's not the same company as six years ago.
- brtkdotse 3y ago
  I chose a Kia eNiro because it had ”bad” but predictable controls/UX. Basically a normal, boring car with dedicated buttons for most things, but with a EV drivetrain.
  - Stratoscope 3y ago
    Same with my Kia EV6. After driving my old Kia Rondo for 15 years, I felt right at home in the EV6. Traditional stalks for lights and wipers, all kinds of dedicated buttons, familiar and comfortable. Kia went to quite some work to make it feel like a regular car.
- ein0p 3y ago
  Funny, I'm considering buying our second Tesla (to replace my BMW) because the company _is_ run by Musk. I'm also big fan of not dictating what other people should say, and find his direct communication style refreshing, even though I disagree with some of his opinions. And that's before we even bring up several other areas where he's successfully doing civilizationally impactful work.
  - 3y ago

ilrwbwrkhv 3y ago

A CEO that doesn't take responsibility is a major issue. Unfortunately shareholders will have to punish him.

CharlesW 3y ago
Yep. Unfortunately, Telsa's toothless board is mostly friends and family.
wklauss 3y ago
How? The board won't remove Elon. Tanking the stock price won't hurt him much (but it will hurt shareholders)

alkibiades 3y ago

top down government technology mandates never work. the early adopters and rich california folks all already have EVs. normal people don’t want them toyota was right and that’s why i got their hybrid vehicle instead of an EV

deleted 3y ago
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afavour 3y ago
I’m a “normal person” and I’d love one. But they’re too expensive and the charging situation near me isn’t great.
- AlexandrB 3y ago
  When talking about market demand, the only thing that matters is how many people will actually spend money on the thing. Wanting something hypothetically if a bunch of additional conditions are met doesn't really help Tesla. Basically, Toyota was right.
- Ajedi32 3y ago
  It sounds like you like the idea of EVs but not the reality. I'm in the same boat; it's a cool technology, just not currently very practical for my situation. Maybe future technology and infrastructure improvements will change that someday, but we aren't there yet, at least not for me.
  - afavour 3y ago
    Right, as much as anything I was addressing the OP's statement "top down government technology mandates never work". Some technologies need top down help to achieve viability and to my mind EVs fit that bill. If the government help bootstrap the industry it could easily achieve viability over the years. It's hardly without precedent: would car travel be the same without the interstate highway system?
- stephenitis 3y ago

foobarian 3y ago

Maybe we're getting to saturation in early adopter market? Looking around, there are a lot of folks who could not easily live with a BEV, i.e. live in apartment buildings or don't have an easy way to install L2 charging at home.

SoftTalker 3y ago
I agree this is part of it. There are still many parts of the USA where charging is a real concern, as is the need to drive beyond the vehicle's range (I do that several times a month, and would worry about charging along the way or at my destination).
hn72774 3y ago
I'm a recent first time buyer of a (used) EV and use the L1 120v charger that came with the vehicle. The daily commute use is low enough that it charges to full overnight. Before I purchased I thought I'd need to pay for a L2 charger and hire an electrician to install a 240v circuit in the driveway. Turned it that I just needed a short 10ga extension cord from an existing 120v receptacle. Our household have a second ICE for longer trips. I live in a house though, not an apartment.
- Workaccount2 3y ago
  I think one of the biggest enemies of EV adoption is that people just don't intrinsically understand that "refueling" is fundamentally different.
  - thrill 3y ago
    And they are constantly badgered to not gain that understanding.
  - hn72774 3y ago
    That was me. I had to do my own research to educate myself. I've done a couple longer trips where the battery goes to 20%. It took a few nights of charging to get it back to 100%. Which was totally fine because our daily use is less than 15 miles per day. When I was ready to buy, I knew more about EV's than the person who sold me the vehicle. The amount of false information I got from the salesperson was worrisome. Even the amount of sales tax he quoted on the first offer was wrong.

matthewfelgate 3y ago

Are Tesla sales levelling off? I'm not convinced that electric cars are going to be mainstream, apart at the high end, for a few decades.

dragontamer 3y ago
> Are Tesla sales levelling off? No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off". EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.
sp332 3y ago
It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/ https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...
- JKCalhoun 3y ago
  Dropping prices are what are going to move EVs IMHO. On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. My understanding is that the battery is the expensive component — and I understand the prices of those keep coming down.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    > On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles. That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety. Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly. ----------- And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly. A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.

shrubble 3y ago

Is there any evidence that the best-fit portions of the market are getting saturated. There are plenty of places in the USA where an ICE vehicle is just a better fit, given usage patterns, lack of charging facilities etc.

fuzzfactor 3y ago
Well, it's a specialty item that can substitute for a very popular mainstream one in a number of popular use cases. And come close to substituting in a number of cases that might still lead to a bit of rapid adoption. More ideal as an incremental acquisition for many of those who already possess the mainstream merchandise. Not so much desirability for those that would have to choose one or the other. So that's a smaller subset of the niche. Then there are those who find the novel solution is superior for their particular needs, an even smaller subset, but more enthusiastic. Seems like the behavior would be to fly off the shelf until the subsets of the mainstream have been saturated, then plateau at the rate that the mainstream becomes amenable to replacement. At the smallest of scale, like with handcrafted items, it can occasionally be easy to do well financially as long as you can sell all you can make. This can happen when they're "flying off the shelf" so there can be relentless pressure to just make more, and the pressure can seem unending when there is a multi-year timeline for any scale-up activities. If the market matures at a less-giga-than-anticipated level, and you end up in the process of building more than you can sell on an ongoing basis, you have reversed the financial opportunity that was supposed to accrue by building more to begin with. One day when you wake up and can no longer sell all you can make for some reason, it's a whole different ball game.

ta8645 3y ago

Not sure how it will affect things going forward, but the Model 3 may help. Jay Leno did an excellent segment about it a few weeks back, with a pair of Tesla engineers: https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU

onion2k 3y ago
Making more Model 3s than Tesla can sell is a big part of the problem. The Model 3 and Y account for 43,000 out of the 46,000 unit overrun.
- moogly 3y ago
  Tesla don't even dare show the Model 3 numbers. I suspect they are very, very low in comparison to the Model Y, looking at official sales numbers tracked in other countries. If I were a Tesla stockholder I would be very disappointed in Tesla not breaking down sales like every other car manufacturer does. It's starting to look increasingly boneheaded to spend time and money on the Cybertruck instead of a new lower-cost SUV (the Model Y isn't really a SUV in my book). Their platform is starting to feel dated compared to the competition. I'm sure some stuff from the Cybertruck platform will trickle down to the next like steer-by-wire and 800 V (which they are catching up on), but since I don't build cars, I don't know how amenable that platform is to build normal cars on.
- LUmBULtERA 3y ago
  Production constraints could be a regional problem. Model 3 highland only recently started showing up in inventory in the US and for now, it's only the standard range models and there are no inventory discounts. No long-range models are showing up in inventory (for me at least?). Plenty of Y are in inventory. I'd have bought one in Q1 but I don't qualify for the tax credit, so I went used.
sf_rob 3y ago
Until Tesla changes their Model 3 sourcing to be eligible for the $7500 tax credit, I don’t understand who would buy one over the Model Y even with the “highland” improvements.

monkeydust 3y ago

So trying to establish how to attribute this to: - World wide supply issues (Red Sea) - TSLA specific issues (Strikes, Pay Dispute) - Overall demand for EVs - to this factor, any good benchmarks out there to establish demand?

onion2k 3y ago
It's not an under-supply problem that supply chain or unions or demand would cause. It's an over-supply problem. Tesla made 46,000 more cars than it could sell.
themaninthedark 3y ago
Rivian is not doing well either: https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/02/rivian-started-a-tough-year-on-a-flat-foot/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/02/rivian-started-a-tough-yea... In addition Ford, Lucid and Fisker are also scaling back and not selling EV's as well. I think this points to a falling EV market.
- monkeydust 3y ago
  Txs, yes sentiment clearly seems to have shifted down. 6 months ago I was sold on my next daily driver being fully electric but now looking at hybrid (phev)

nixgeek 3y ago

Some friends bought a Model X about six months ago, spending over $100k — that’s down from the almost $150k that Tesla was demanding a couple years ago when we bought one (and both were fairly fully loaded). First, my experience 2 years ago was the A/C compressor was so loud that during summer with cooling running at maximum, you couldn’t hold a conversation in the cabin because of the noise. Tesla investigated and eventually said “looks fine to us, there isn’t designed to be any additional noise abatement on the firewall between the front and the passenger space”. We had issues with our Falcon Wing doors, and we eventually sold the vehicle after a year. Now, our friends Model X, that’s had ~6 non-trivial maintenance problems in six months, including the Falcon Wing doors failing three times, and they’re in the process of trying to get a refund through Lemon Laws. Other acquaintances who own Teslas also have service issues on their Model X, the Cybertruck looks like an even worse mess, so I concluded over a span of multiple years, quality still isn’t a strong suit of Tesla, thus I’m not shocked to see there’s limited brand loyaly, and with increasingly viable competition, demand is falling? I now have a Rivian R1S and we are incredibly happy with that vehicle, having put about 6000 miles on it. Mercedes EQS also seems like a reasonable choice in 2024, depending on what you want.

ChumpGPT 3y ago
You're not buying quality when you buy Tesla, you're buying fashion. if you want quality buy a Toyota/Lexus.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  I'm a big fan of Toyota Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime. (High efficiency vehicles, Prius Prime is #1 most green car of ACEEE list, etc. etc.). But people buying Tesla aren't aligned to Toyota. But a better match to culture is likely Jeep Wrangler 4xe. Incredible offroading performance, reasonable towing capacity, large size / in-your-face advertising to some extent. And electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly. Etc. etc. There's a lot of competition these days. People who buy Toyota / Honda are people who care #1 about reliability and simplicity. But "Tesla Buyers" are more excited about niche features or feeling like their car can do something other cars cannot do (even if they never actually use that feature). And honestly, vehicles like Jeep Wrangler 4xe are best suited for that mindset. --------------- Or the new Dodge Charger EV. Now that Stellantis is making their EV push, I think Stellantis has better branding for what the stereotypical Tesla Buyer is going for... without the awfulness associated with Elon.

hibikir 3y ago

I could see this coming weeks ago: My local dealer was cold-calling existing owners to try to get them to buy the updated model 3, which isn't a very significant update at all. They had a bunch on the lot that weren't selling. We can also see the promotion of a free trial for self-driving as a response to this too: Hoping some people bite after trying it out. Whether that happens, or we just see more videos of failed self-driving is another story. Either way, Tesla hasn't done much to improve their normal models in 2 years. The cybertruck is barely in production, and it's hard to see it as having massive demand. Elon's cultural alignment with people that at the same time are being told that electric vehicles will be bad for America is probably not great for sales on either side of the cultural divide. Add high interest rates, and it's unsurprising to see trouble. But does anyone have enough shares to try to force Tesla to make significant changes in diection? Unlikely.

olivermuty 3y ago
Isn’t Teslas whole schtick that they are dealer-free? Where is this? Is it a franchise?
- mattw2121 3y ago
  He probably meant the local, Tesla employed, sales person or sales manager. Tesla has showrooms all over the country.
  - olivermuty 3y ago
    Interesting. Tesla in Norway is all JIT sales. Cars are ordered and come straight from the docks to the customer. I did not expect Tesla showrooms in the us to carry stock. Maybe walkin purchases are more common across the pond
kylecordes 3y ago
It seems like Tesla should focus on updating the Model Y, which is by far their best-selling model, instead of the 3. The typical US consumer is not all that excited about sedans anyway.

VBprogrammer 3y ago

Tesla are still producing cars which have the same design elements as the Model S did in 2012. I'm amazed they have pulled that off but maybe the lack of "freshness" is also hurting their bottom line?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
akmarinov 3y ago
Model S and X aren’t big volume movers. The 3 and Y are, that’s why they’re getting refreshes.

seydor 3y ago

(at least internationally) Tesla has failed so far to provide a low cost EV when all their competitors already have. There is a limited number of people who buy them for the prestige factor, but it s a small population. I m thinking of a Volvo EV but would consider a Tesla if they had one in the same category/price ranges. Pretty much nobody cares if it's self driving

kylecordes 3y ago

"Disastrous" seems like a significant overstatement. To me this looks more like "unsurprising". Tesla has some additional business lines which might eventually prove quite valuable, but in the short to medium term it is mostly a car company. The whole car industry is dealing with the results of higher interest rates. It would be much more surprising if Tesla somehow turned out to be immune to that.

addicted 3y ago
It’s below estimates, so it’s by definition “surprising” relative to the people whose business it is to predict these things. Disastrous may be going too far unless it portends further drops going forward. But disastrous may also be the right word because Tesla’s valuation is based entirely on massive growth. So even if this means Tesla will start growing fairly normally as opposed to rapidly, that’s bad for Tesla stock.
- FireBeyond 3y ago
  There is suspicion that Tesla always seemed to just exceed predictions, predictably. I'm sure plenty of people made money when "oh look, another quarter of exceeding expected results".
xeromal 3y ago
Any reaction to bad news for Elon Musk businesses are outsized for the amount of hate people have for him. I'd say the hate is pretty well-deserved but I also value SpaceX and Tesla tremendously and I hope they continue taking us into the future.
cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago
It was literally under target. That’s the definition of surprising. It comes as no surprises that the rest of your comment either looks for positives or places the blame on conditions affecting the auto industry at large. Can Tesla do no wrong?
NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
The market doesn't knock $30bn off the value of your company at the open if your results were "unsurprising".

oldpersonintx 3y ago

EVs will crawl out of their trough of disillusionment it will take time though in ten years there will be vastly more EVs than today ICE is still on the way out

MisterBastahrd 3y ago

Tesla's target consumer is not the sort of person who shares Musk's personal or political views. Add the facts that you can't even be sure what you're going to get when you buy one of their cars, that the company has constantly overpromised and underdelivered, interest rates are high, and there's simply more competition in the electric space... why buy a Tesla? Aside from all of that, Musk's views on his expectations from employees alone would have been enough to turn me off from ever purchasing one of those cars.

hn72774 3y ago

Could it be that Musk's inflammatory language and behaviors are a turn off for potential buyers? They are a turn off for me. I like the vehicles but I'd never get one.

jborden13 3y ago
I think there are lots of us.
- drcongo 3y ago
  Same. If I wanted to project that image I'd just paint a swastika on my existing car.
FredPret 3y ago
It's such a shame that he's sullying his reputation like this. Howard Hughes-like. He could have retired in a blaze of glory a couple of years ago, straight into the pantheon of epic American entrepreneurs.
- dralley 3y ago
  His behavior isn't the only Howard Hughes callback. The entire Cybertruck project screams it.
  - smallmancontrov 3y ago
    Apparently Henry Ford bought a newspaper (the Dearborn Independent) to publish his opinions on jews. History sure does rhyme. What is it with car CEOs?
    - FredPret 3y ago
      If it rhymes this much, it's bad news for Musk but fantastic for Tesla. Ford has generated a ridiculous amount of shareholder returns over the years and makes good cars today.

FredPret 3y ago

Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA. But they don't really have an SUV, which is by far the most popular form factor. The Model Y is closest but it's still a bit car-ish. Interest rates are up. Their chairman is going through a very public ...episode. They'll definitely overcome the headwinds: they still have superfans despite the Musk antics; they have lower leverage than GM/F [0]; there's a lot of regulatory pressure coming down the pipes over the next 10-30 years to phase out ICE engines. [0]: https://valustox.com/GM https://valustox.com/GM https://valustox.com/F https://valustox.com/F https://valustox.com/TSLA https://valustox.com/TSLA

spacemadness 3y ago
Good luck with that thesis and sorry for your loss.
- FredPret 3y ago
  I’m a value investor and wouldn’t touch Tesla for at least another 10 years
mikestew 3y ago
Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA. Here in Redmond, where buying a Tesla seems to be a rite of passage for Microsoft employees, I will often see three Teslas at an intersection (and maybe one behind me). The things are everywhere. If you've got a dead cat, careful you don't hit a Tesla when you swing it around. And I've seen a total of one Cybertruck. Either not that many have been made and shipped, or no one is buying. People do love trucks, and they even love electric ones because I seen Rivians all the time (and a few Lightnings). But I've only seen the one lonely, butt-ugly Cybertruck.
- coldpie 3y ago
  > I've seen a Cybertruck Oofda. I'm sorry you had to experience that.

luuurker 3y ago

I'm not sure if the latest Model 3 upgrade is going to sell as well as the previous ones. Some changes are bad. Eg: Someone I know struggles with turn signals. We have a few roundabouts here and it can be a bit confusing on tighter turns when the buttons are upside down.

AlexandrB 3y ago

Setting aside the antics of the CEO, Teslas are increasingly unappealing. I don't want a "yoke", I don't want everything on a touch screen, and I don't want to try to navigate a roundabout using signal buttons on a steering wheel in the winter. I do want CarPlay. A lot of this stuff is blatant cost-cutting with a fig leaf of "it's futuristic".

archagon 3y ago
I think the problem is that Musk is injecting more and more of his “design” philosophy into everything. This does not inspire confidence. Tesla needed a new CEO yesterday.

exitzer0 3y ago

Some things to think about. - Tesla's charging network is opening up. I think this used to be the single biggest selling point. - Tesla's repairability is not great, neither are the insurance rates. - The 4680's have not exactly changed the world... might have made things cheaper for Tesla but that is about it. - Some folks might think that Teslas aversion to buttons has reached peak dumb. Latest model 3 has even ditched the turn signals and drive-selector stalks... - Requiring FSD demos prior to sales? GTFO. - Musk is officially more of a liability than an asset.

screenoridesaga 3y ago

Ok we had our one hour of HN reality, now the post making national news off the page and the we are back in fansty land.

aeturnum 3y ago

Lots of talk about how Musk's controversies are hurting the company (agree!) but I think a bigger problem may be his tendency to hyper-focus on things. Many tesla models have not received significant updates or styling changes in years. Tesla is no longer brand new, the oldest production Model S'es are ~12 years old. Many of their changes have been along the line of company-wide changes or upgrades (which are also good) but people like having their new car look new, not like one from a decade ago. It feels like Musks companies suffer from hyperfocus, probably because effort is directed by the his attention, but car companies can't work like that.

JeremyNT 3y ago

This seems largely to be blogspam. There is a less clickbaity version from Reuters [0]. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-first-quarter-deliveries-miss-expectations-2024-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...

stephenitis 3y ago

Tesla Minivan incoming to save the day. Make a safety and family oriented cool van and I'll buy one

hnburnsy 3y ago

For comparison GM's total EV sales for Q1 2024 were 16,425, down 15% from 19,305 in Q4 2023. GM's total sales were down 1.5%

vondur 3y ago

I think the market is tapped out for EV's at the moment. Most people seem to want plug in hybrids vs. full EV's.

hnburnsy 3y ago

Some other context As of Q3 2022, Tesla’s profit margins stand out significantly compared to its competitors: Gross profit per car: $15,653 Net profit per car: $9,574 In comparison, other major automakers have lower profit margins: General Motors (GM): Gross profit per car of $3,818 and net profit per car of $2,150. Toyota: Gross profit per car of $3,925 and net profit per car of $1,197. Volkswagen (VW): Gross profit per car of $6,034 and net profit per car of $973. Hyundai: Gross profit per car of $5,362 and net profit per car of $927.

kstrauser 3y ago
What's the difference between gross profit and net profit?
- stephenitis 3y ago
  Gross profit is the money a company makes after subtracting the cost of producing its goods or services. Net profit is what remains after all expenses, like operating costs, taxes, and interest, are deducted from the gross profit.
  - kstrauser 3y ago
    Ah, so gross profit is kind of like "this is how much we profited off this specific car", and net profit is "this is the average of how much we profited off all these cars"?
    - yread 3y ago
      gross profit is "money we got for selling this car" - "all per car expenses". Net profit is - "all the other expenses a company has"
mkipper 3y ago
You seem to know where to find these numbers (I don't), so do you know how that stacks up with luxury car manufacturers? Most of those companies do compete with Tesla, but the price range of a Tesla ($40k to $90k for most models) lines up much more closely with Audi and BMW than any of those companies. I'd imagine that those companies would have higher gross margins if they didn't sell any cheap models or trims levels.

stephenitis 3y ago

Does anyone know by what measure/scale other major car manufacturers over produce vehicles in a year? I suspect Tesla has wiggle room to discount this batch of vehicles to get them out the door quickly, the rebate will be built into the price of the vehicles this year so i'm curious how much that will reflect in the price drop.

TradingPlaces 3y ago

Others are gaining market share fast, especially on S/X vs. German luxury EVs. But the whole industry is far behind where they thought total vehicle sales would be in 2023-2024, the cause being high loan/lease payments in the US, and weak Chinese consumer demand overall. So part of this is unique to Tesla, but part is an industry that was expecting 2023-4 to be much better than it has been so far.

aaomidi 3y ago

I have a Tesla with EAP. I’m not buying another Tesla unless I can transfer this over. Not with the prices for software DLCs they have today. What’s fascinating is that they have this transfer for FSD, but not EAP. Anyone from Tesla sales reading this, reach out to me and you may have a customer :)

nunez 3y ago

Not surprising. They are experiencing serious scaling difficulties with the new "Highland" Model 3. The community [0] thinks that there are supply chain issues with several components in the Long Range variant of these cars, the white seats being especially bottlenecked. [0] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-waiting-room.319421/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-...

deleted 3y ago

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nojvek 3y ago

I have a feeling most people who want a Tesla already have a Tesla. Now Tesla has to fight and sway those who are looking to purchase their next vehicle. It doesn’t help that Elon is playing politics and driving a large crowd away from Tesla brand. Also there are many repair horror stories. So the brand seems tainted.