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My feeling about the outflows to other warm southern states is that old retirees on fixed incomes tend to move to places where they can get value for the equity

My feeling about the outflows to other warm southern states is that old retirees on fixed incomes tend to move to places where they can get value for the equity in their Californian homes. Often they buy multi family homes in these new states and can house their (now adult) kids who move with them. I don’t see it as a source of economic malaise more a way for them to cash out of the property market in California.

nradov 3y ago
Your feeling would be incorrect. The outflow is 65% composed of Gen Z and Millennials. Retirees are a much smaller portion. https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-california-pros-cons-texas-millennials-gen-z-single-2023-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-california-pros-...
- romafirst3 3y ago
  Interesting breakdown. 1/3 are retired or students, I wonder how many people moving in to California are not working? This article also seems to say that the majority of people leaving the state earn below average income and don't have a college degree, so it seems like California has become too expensive for them perhaps? Again I'm not 100% sure it's a sign of economic malaise, people leave when it gets too expensive. There has been a dip in California population since covid (https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/population-exodus-2023-18566180.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/population-ex...) which makes sense with what I've experience anecdotally with people I know who've ditched SF for NY (and elsewhere). Definitely SF seems to be on the decline. The people I know didn't leave because of some kind of "failed state" vibe though, they left cause SF was going too right wing for them.
  - diogenescynic 3y ago
    >they left cause SF was going too right wing for them. No one has ever said this. No normal rational adult could possibly think SF was right wing.... this is some Overton window type of bias or something. I can't even think of anywhere the country more left wing than SF. NYC is certainly not more left wing than SF... People would be crying and protesting putting the National Guard in BART. NYC welcomed it. >The people I know didn't leave because of some kind of "failed state" vibe though Everyone I know moved out because SF got shitty. More crime, more open drug use like this https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLka6qqp/ https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLka6qqp/ and less cops, less personal safety, less riders on BART so you don't even feel safety amongst the crowd. I tried moving to Burlingame for a year, but that was boring and outrageously expensive so I just moved out of the Bay Area altogether.

nradov 3y ago

Your feeling would be incorrect. The outflow is 65% composed of Gen Z and Millennials. Retirees are a much smaller portion. https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-california-pros-cons-texas-millennials-gen-z-single-2023-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-california-pros-...

romafirst3 3y ago
Interesting breakdown. 1/3 are retired or students, I wonder how many people moving in to California are not working? This article also seems to say that the majority of people leaving the state earn below average income and don't have a college degree, so it seems like California has become too expensive for them perhaps? Again I'm not 100% sure it's a sign of economic malaise, people leave when it gets too expensive. There has been a dip in California population since covid (https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/population-exodus-2023-18566180.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/population-ex...) which makes sense with what I've experience anecdotally with people I know who've ditched SF for NY (and elsewhere). Definitely SF seems to be on the decline. The people I know didn't leave because of some kind of "failed state" vibe though, they left cause SF was going too right wing for them.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  >they left cause SF was going too right wing for them. No one has ever said this. No normal rational adult could possibly think SF was right wing.... this is some Overton window type of bias or something. I can't even think of anywhere the country more left wing than SF. NYC is certainly not more left wing than SF... People would be crying and protesting putting the National Guard in BART. NYC welcomed it. >The people I know didn't leave because of some kind of "failed state" vibe though Everyone I know moved out because SF got shitty. More crime, more open drug use like this https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLka6qqp/ https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLka6qqp/ and less cops, less personal safety, less riders on BART so you don't even feel safety amongst the crowd. I tried moving to Burlingame for a year, but that was boring and outrageously expensive so I just moved out of the Bay Area altogether.