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I still have never understood the valuations. Sure, they'd make sense if Tesla ended up being the only game in town, forever. But even though they undoubtedly h

I still have never understood the valuations. Sure, they'd make sense if Tesla ended up being the only game in town, forever. But even though they undoubtedly have been streets ahead in many places for a long time and Western manufacturers have been caught on the back foot, the Asian players are snapping at their heels, and (some of) the Western brands are slowly waking up. And even if they weren't, I don't see how Tesla would have been able to dig a moat wide enough to last so long that a trillion dollar valuation could be realised before they become just another EV brand in the pack.

FireBeyond 3y ago
Tesla is a Schrodinger, depending on the narrative needed: They're David going against the Goliath of "the dinosaurs", "legacy auto". And then their fans like to remind people of their (IMHO laughable) Goliath market cap. You know, the market cap that says Tesla is worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi. COMBINED. But wait, there's more, also worth more than all of these AND several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng.
bobthepanda 3y ago
With the recent NACS deals they have basically also become the charging network of choice in North America, which is certainly worth something.
- peutetre 3y ago
  With North America slowing working toward a common EV plug and CCS winning the charging standard war, North American EV charging will become more like Europe. Charge any brand of EV on any brand of charging network, just as nature intended. No more vendor lock in.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    NACS is winning, not CCS.
    - peutetre 3y ago
      NACS is CCS. It's CCS type 3. It's why older Teslas can't charge on NACS chargers without a retrofit. They can't talk CCS without upgrades. Don't get confused by the branding.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        They are CCS with a proprietary connector (well, soon to be SAE J3400), so it still means we (CCS1 cars) can’t use their chargers without an adapter, even if they let us.
        peutetre 3y ago
        It won't be proprietary. It is SAE J3400. It is CCS. That's why other manufacturers are willing to support it. It's true that North America should have standardized a plug and charging standard a long time ago so drivers aren't in a situation where they have to waste money on adapters just to charge their car. Europe has much better EV infrastructure today in part because manufacturers have been able to build to a common standard and have it work across all brands. That standardization has driven investment, development, and deployment.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        It didn’t help that Tesla seemed to be much better at setting up charging infrastructure than VW. Electrify America is kind of a joke now, with busted chargers being the norm rather than the exception.
  - ta1243 3y ago
    The lockin is at the charger level. Fill up with petrol? Drive up, tap your card, fill up. At some places you fill up then go into the shop and tap your card. Electric? Drive up, work out which of the dozen of apps there are, try to download it, hold your phone in the other hand to try to get a signal, finally download it, then register, sell your personal data, then finally you can try to work out how to charge your car.
    - peutetre 3y ago
      More sensible infrastructure regulation in Europe. They're mandating contactless payments on charger. No app required: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2023/07/12/new-regulations-governing-public-charge-points-published https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-... Even on Tesla's newer dispensers: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s It's true that North America still has a long way to go on EV infrastructure, but it will get there eventually.
      - ta1243 3y ago
        Damn government, making things better for everyday people. How can honest corporations abuse their captive audiences when the government keeps restricting their abilities?
        xref 3y ago
        We need less/more/same regulation, whichever one satisfies my desires at any given moment!
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    Who else right now manufactures NACS chargers?
    - peutetre 3y ago
      All CCS charger manufacturers. NACS is CCS with a different plug on the end. It's CCS type 3. It's a very simple change for all manufacturers. Here are interviews with various charger makers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbPa6nO6GyM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbPa6nO6GyM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyO-o85U-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyO-o85U-8 Alpitronic and Kempower make the best chargers.
yyyyz 3y ago
Because once the valuations are proven incorrect they just sell the company on to the next fool trying to justify the valuation. Look at Twitter, complete failure of the company, totally worthless but the legal system and media prop it up, even though it’s only ever lost money.
VirusNewbie 3y ago
I think the argument for it goes as folllows: Tesla has more 'self supervised' driving data than any other car brand, so if data is key to making self driving work, they win. You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. Now before I get flamed, I don't own Tesla stock, and no I don't think self driving is just around the corner. I'm perfectly happy with good autopilot though and I think the model 3 is a great mid level car. But yes I think Tesla stock was quite over valued.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  > You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
  - Ekaros 3y ago
    It is only winner takes all if Tesla keeps being only one with self-driving... Which to me looking into history is insane. Is there any technology where there is only single provider? It is big enough market that eventually there will be multiple-players and then it will be race to bottom. Marginal profits. Self-driving taxis will be dumped like Uber and Lyft did against other players. And then it will be low margin business.
    - gravescale 3y ago
      Right? And even if they did score a virtual monopoly in the US through assiduous lobbying, they can't keep a global lid on development forever. Especially that if they do crack it, they prove that it both can be done and it's "just" the software. Even without the Asian manufacturers, the German ones wouldn't just roll over and die either.
  - VirusNewbie 3y ago
    It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.

FireBeyond 3y ago

Tesla is a Schrodinger, depending on the narrative needed: They're David going against the Goliath of "the dinosaurs", "legacy auto". And then their fans like to remind people of their (IMHO laughable) Goliath market cap. You know, the market cap that says Tesla is worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi. COMBINED. But wait, there's more, also worth more than all of these AND several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng.

bobthepanda 3y ago

With the recent NACS deals they have basically also become the charging network of choice in North America, which is certainly worth something.

peutetre 3y ago
With North America slowing working toward a common EV plug and CCS winning the charging standard war, North American EV charging will become more like Europe. Charge any brand of EV on any brand of charging network, just as nature intended. No more vendor lock in.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  NACS is winning, not CCS.
  - peutetre 3y ago
    NACS is CCS. It's CCS type 3. It's why older Teslas can't charge on NACS chargers without a retrofit. They can't talk CCS without upgrades. Don't get confused by the branding.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      They are CCS with a proprietary connector (well, soon to be SAE J3400), so it still means we (CCS1 cars) can’t use their chargers without an adapter, even if they let us.
      - peutetre 3y ago
        It won't be proprietary. It is SAE J3400. It is CCS. That's why other manufacturers are willing to support it. It's true that North America should have standardized a plug and charging standard a long time ago so drivers aren't in a situation where they have to waste money on adapters just to charge their car. Europe has much better EV infrastructure today in part because manufacturers have been able to build to a common standard and have it work across all brands. That standardization has driven investment, development, and deployment.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        It didn’t help that Tesla seemed to be much better at setting up charging infrastructure than VW. Electrify America is kind of a joke now, with busted chargers being the norm rather than the exception.
- ta1243 3y ago
  The lockin is at the charger level. Fill up with petrol? Drive up, tap your card, fill up. At some places you fill up then go into the shop and tap your card. Electric? Drive up, work out which of the dozen of apps there are, try to download it, hold your phone in the other hand to try to get a signal, finally download it, then register, sell your personal data, then finally you can try to work out how to charge your car.
  - peutetre 3y ago
    More sensible infrastructure regulation in Europe. They're mandating contactless payments on charger. No app required: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2023/07/12/new-regulations-governing-public-charge-points-published https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-... Even on Tesla's newer dispensers: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s It's true that North America still has a long way to go on EV infrastructure, but it will get there eventually.
    - ta1243 3y ago
      Damn government, making things better for everyday people. How can honest corporations abuse their captive audiences when the government keeps restricting their abilities?
      - xref 3y ago
        We need less/more/same regulation, whichever one satisfies my desires at any given moment!
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  Who else right now manufactures NACS chargers?
  - peutetre 3y ago
    All CCS charger manufacturers. NACS is CCS with a different plug on the end. It's CCS type 3. It's a very simple change for all manufacturers. Here are interviews with various charger makers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbPa6nO6GyM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbPa6nO6GyM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyO-o85U-8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyO-o85U-8 Alpitronic and Kempower make the best chargers.

yyyyz 3y ago

Because once the valuations are proven incorrect they just sell the company on to the next fool trying to justify the valuation. Look at Twitter, complete failure of the company, totally worthless but the legal system and media prop it up, even though it’s only ever lost money.

VirusNewbie 3y ago

I think the argument for it goes as folllows: Tesla has more 'self supervised' driving data than any other car brand, so if data is key to making self driving work, they win. You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. Now before I get flamed, I don't own Tesla stock, and no I don't think self driving is just around the corner. I'm perfectly happy with good autopilot though and I think the model 3 is a great mid level car. But yes I think Tesla stock was quite over valued.

rsynnott 3y ago
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked. … _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.
- Ekaros 3y ago
  It is only winner takes all if Tesla keeps being only one with self-driving... Which to me looking into history is insane. Is there any technology where there is only single provider? It is big enough market that eventually there will be multiple-players and then it will be race to bottom. Marginal profits. Self-driving taxis will be dumped like Uber and Lyft did against other players. And then it will be low margin business.
  - gravescale 3y ago
    Right? And even if they did score a virtual monopoly in the US through assiduous lobbying, they can't keep a global lid on development forever. Especially that if they do crack it, they prove that it both can be done and it's "just" the software. Even without the Asian manufacturers, the German ones wouldn't just roll over and die either.
- VirusNewbie 3y ago
  It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.