3 ms·

Even amortized over a few years, they clearly expect to be able to raise prices soon. If Microsoft stops laundering revenue through OpenAI, and as Stability swi

by sp332 3y ago

Even amortized over a few years, they clearly expect to be able to raise prices soon. If Microsoft stops laundering revenue through OpenAI, and as Stability switches away from free stuff, the best AI tools are about to get a lot more expensive.

zarzavat 3y ago
Nah it’s the opposite. At the moment there’s a lot of low hanging fruit, AI companies can make money from the difference between GPT4 and free models. Once we get free models that are as good as GPT4, while there will still be a market for a “GPT5”, the current applications will experience serious price competition.
- sp332 3y ago
  If OpenAI has to make a profit or at least lose less money to please investors, they will raise the price of GPT4 or flat out cancel it.
  - zarzavat 3y ago
    It doesn’t matter, if you can run Llama3/4 on commodity hardware is what I’m saying. If I can fulfill my objectives with a commodity model with GPT-4 capabilities then I’m not going to pay any $$$ for GPT-5 because my needs are already met. So OpenAI will lose customers at the same time as gaining them. The price at the top end will go up, but the price at the bottom end (which is currently the top end) will fall.
    - sp332 3y ago
      I think Meta is the last major player who's only releasing free generative AI tools, so with no incentive to kneecap their best free stuff to avoid cannibalizing their own products. AI companies will have to build actual products on top of their models to produce more value, so I want to see if Meta will release whole free products to keep the pressure on. Maybe "Segment Anything" is already a step in that direction.
zelphirkalt 3y ago
Hopefully until then we will have stuff that, without requiring specific hardware or hardware from specific vendors, easily runs on home computers. Best with the ability to let the models relearn from chosen sources of knowledge.
- imtringued 3y ago
  Your first concern makes no sense. You can have specific hardware that is widely available on home computers. In fact, you soon won't be able to buy a computer without them.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
They’ll need to be better and more autonomous to justify the prices No one is going to pay $100 for “better than Google search” chatGPT, even if its AGI tier But paying $100 for a “junior dev who takes over all the grunt work” is still a value buy
- nextworddev 3y ago
  In theory, paying $499/mo could be justified if it improves a Senior / Staff developer's productivity by even 10% (more than say ChatGPT)
  - geteegudc 3y ago
    This is not the sort of calculation businesses seem willing to make. It can be hard to get an extra stick of RAM or a copy of JetBrains.
bedhead 3y ago
Raise prices on what? There are barely any revenue generating AI products with a line of paying customers. I look around an I still don’t see anything. At the end of the day there have to be viable business models at the end of the line in order to support all this otherwise this too is just a house of cards.
chollida1 3y ago
> . If Microsoft stops laundering revenue through OpenAI Not sure this is the phrase you meant as no one is accusing Microsoft of laundering money via OpenAI.
- sp332 3y ago
  MS put money into OpenAI and OpenAI spends the money on Azure. It's basically Microsoft handing themselves cash and pretending that it's revenue.
setgree 3y ago
For SOTA, probably, but it looks like current gen technology is going to be free soon. Intel is proposing to have copilot run locally, for example: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-confirms-microsoft-copilot-will-soon-run-locally-on-pcs-next-gen-ai-pcs-require-40-tops-of-npu-performance https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-confir...
- sp332 3y ago
  I think they will have to build actual products instead of just making a model available and having customers figure out something useful to do with it.
wrsh07 3y ago
I'm curious why you think this My understanding is that the APIs are profitable, and the best alternative (spin up mixtral on cloud provider) isn't that expensive. So there's some downward pressure there. I expect ChatGPT is priced right where anthropic and OpenAI want. It's generating cash, and if you're a heavy user they can rate limit or offer a higher tier Is that higher tier what you're expecting?

by sp332 3y ago

zarzavat 3y ago

Nah it’s the opposite. At the moment there’s a lot of low hanging fruit, AI companies can make money from the difference between GPT4 and free models. Once we get free models that are as good as GPT4, while there will still be a market for a “GPT5”, the current applications will experience serious price competition.

sp332 3y ago
If OpenAI has to make a profit or at least lose less money to please investors, they will raise the price of GPT4 or flat out cancel it.
- zarzavat 3y ago
  It doesn’t matter, if you can run Llama3/4 on commodity hardware is what I’m saying. If I can fulfill my objectives with a commodity model with GPT-4 capabilities then I’m not going to pay any $$$ for GPT-5 because my needs are already met. So OpenAI will lose customers at the same time as gaining them. The price at the top end will go up, but the price at the bottom end (which is currently the top end) will fall.
  - sp332 3y ago
    I think Meta is the last major player who's only releasing free generative AI tools, so with no incentive to kneecap their best free stuff to avoid cannibalizing their own products. AI companies will have to build actual products on top of their models to produce more value, so I want to see if Meta will release whole free products to keep the pressure on. Maybe "Segment Anything" is already a step in that direction.

zelphirkalt 3y ago

Hopefully until then we will have stuff that, without requiring specific hardware or hardware from specific vendors, easily runs on home computers. Best with the ability to let the models relearn from chosen sources of knowledge.

imtringued 3y ago
Your first concern makes no sense. You can have specific hardware that is widely available on home computers. In fact, you soon won't be able to buy a computer without them.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

They’ll need to be better and more autonomous to justify the prices No one is going to pay $100 for “better than Google search” chatGPT, even if its AGI tier But paying $100 for a “junior dev who takes over all the grunt work” is still a value buy

nextworddev 3y ago
In theory, paying $499/mo could be justified if it improves a Senior / Staff developer's productivity by even 10% (more than say ChatGPT)
- geteegudc 3y ago
  This is not the sort of calculation businesses seem willing to make. It can be hard to get an extra stick of RAM or a copy of JetBrains.

bedhead 3y ago

Raise prices on what? There are barely any revenue generating AI products with a line of paying customers. I look around an I still don’t see anything. At the end of the day there have to be viable business models at the end of the line in order to support all this otherwise this too is just a house of cards.

chollida1 3y ago

> . If Microsoft stops laundering revenue through OpenAI Not sure this is the phrase you meant as no one is accusing Microsoft of laundering money via OpenAI.

sp332 3y ago
MS put money into OpenAI and OpenAI spends the money on Azure. It's basically Microsoft handing themselves cash and pretending that it's revenue.

setgree 3y ago

For SOTA, probably, but it looks like current gen technology is going to be free soon. Intel is proposing to have copilot run locally, for example: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-confirms-microsoft-copilot-will-soon-run-locally-on-pcs-next-gen-ai-pcs-require-40-tops-of-npu-performance https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-confir...

sp332 3y ago
I think they will have to build actual products instead of just making a model available and having customers figure out something useful to do with it.

wrsh07 3y ago

I'm curious why you think this My understanding is that the APIs are profitable, and the best alternative (spin up mixtral on cloud provider) isn't that expensive. So there's some downward pressure there. I expect ChatGPT is priced right where anthropic and OpenAI want. It's generating cash, and if you're a heavy user they can rate limit or offer a higher tier Is that higher tier what you're expecting?