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Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold.

by d--b 3y ago

Meanwhile, the stock market is through the roof, bitcoin rallied spectacularly, the housing market is unreachable to most, and let's just not talk about gold. And AI hasn't kicked in yet. At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here...

eql5 3y ago
> At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... The REAL insiders know very well what's going on, but it's one of the best kept secrets among them: QFS is coming (almost there now), and they know it. But since they (the old, evil central banks) can't control it - because it's not FIAT anymore, but asset backed - they are literally desperate now, because they are losing control... This may sound like a conspiracy theory, but there is enough information out there that can confirm this. In a few months from now (after the total collapse of the old financial system and the complete stock market crash), we will be wiser...
- eql5 3y ago
  ...and just as a side note: a conspiracy is a felony (not a theory). So, the REAL problem is not an eventual "deep state" (secret societies do in fact exist, and they are called "secret" for a reason): the real problem are the "deep asleep" people around the world, not wanting to wake up to the truth... HN is one of the worst places in this regard...
api 3y ago
Inflation in everything but wages, information, and technology. Inflation adjusted wages are relatively flat compared to inflation elsewhere, while information and tech are deflating. The wave of super cheap EVs hasn’t even hit yet, and as you say AI hasn’t really hit yet. Solar power will soon be the cheapest source of power in history and it’s still falling. This has been going on for about two decades. How does this end? A bunch of superintelligent superconnected homeless cyborgs? Borg living in cardboard boxes pushing shopping carts around?
- sph 3y ago
  When economists throw Keynes in the bin where he belongs and accept that inflation is not because of lack of spending, but because of an ever expanding money supply. Not gonna happen anytime soon, governments love Keynesian economics.
  - api 3y ago
    Keynes gets the blame for policies he never would have supported. He advocated counter cyclic spending: deficits during recessions, surpluses during booms. That and the idea of monetary velocity are his biggest insights. What we do isn’t Keynesian. We run deficits in recessions and deficits in booms and make them bigger and bigger. This has consistently happened under both major political parties (yes including Trump) since the 1980s.
- crotchfire 3y ago
  > How does this end? War, unfortunately.
Quothling 3y ago
> At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... I recommend reading Thomas Piketty if you want some of the more modern works on what is going on with our social economics in the west. It's not exactly a new phenomenon though, wealth inequality is part of the cycle of civilization and it always leads to some form of wealth redistribution. How that happens is historically up to whatever aristocracy is in charge, though with the introduction of democracy it's typically done through very high taxes. Before the Regan Thatcher era an 80% tax on the wealthiest (and this means all methods of income) wasn't uncommon, and they were still the wealthiest. Anyway. It's going to change eventually. Especially the housing market is going to suck. I'm Danish, I bought a townhouse with my wife for 3m DKK. If it were to follow my parents 30 year increase on their house, we should be able to sell it for 26m dkk by 2050... which isn't going to happen.
- tasuki 3y ago
  > If it were to follow my parents 30 year increase on their house, we should be able to sell it for 26m dkk by 2050... which isn't going to happen. Why not?
  - Ekaros 3y ago
    That would be 3,5 million euros... I don't think inflation will be that substantial... Or market to stay that level weird to that point.
    - tasuki 3y ago
      2050 is still a long way. It'd be slightly below 16% per year (considering the house was bought in 2024, it might've been bought earlier). That sounds on the unlikely side, but definitely not in the "isn't going to happen" territory!
- d--b 3y ago
  Piketty, Varoufakis, they had their "occupy" moment... Sadly, nobody gives a shit about these guys anymore. Piketty joined the socialist candidate Benoit Hamon's campaign during France's 2017 presidential election. Hamon scored 6.36%, an extremely low number.
sph 3y ago
If one wishes to keep an open mind and explore non-mainstream views of the modern world economy, I recommend the first chapters of The Bitcoin Standard, by Saifedean Ammous, an actual trained economist. He has been interviewed by Lex Fridman if you prefer to hear him in podcast version. These chapters are not about bitcoin, but the societal shift that happened at the turn of last century when countries abandoned the gold standard to finance their wars. The Keynesian economic policy. The concept of time preference which shifts when the value of a currency is diluted by inflation. How very rich entities are allowed to grow richer simply because they are able to get large sums of money "at the source" before inflation has had the chance to raise prices for all of us, etc. Very unpopular in this circles where the mention of bitcoin is cause to raise pitchforks, and everybody loves to quote economists that seemingly have no clue what is going on.
DecentRecruiter 3y ago
Stock market: investors like that companies are correcting for the over-hiring that peaked in 2021 - lower costs & higher productivity. Housing prices: have barely increased since late 2022 in most major cities (falling in cities like Austin). Still, you're right, they're unreachable for most. Gold: it's not the traditional safe haven investment it used to be. Its correlation with stock prices is much higher than it was in the old days. Bitcoin: I will never understand!
- bdw5204 3y ago
  A "stock market boom" built on killing jobs is not a booming economy. That's why any politician who brags about or defends this morally indefensible "boom" is going to be in trouble politically.
  - DecentRecruiter 3y ago
    I wouldn't call it morally indefensible for companies to make layoffs after the hiring irrational exuberance that occured in 2021. They're trimming fat. I would use that label for a Private Equity firm leveraged buyout, followed by a complete gutting of employees, then a quick flip for profit.
TMWNN 3y ago
>At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos <https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-212315127.html https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123...>

by d--b 3y ago

eql5 3y ago

> At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... The REAL insiders know very well what's going on, but it's one of the best kept secrets among them: QFS is coming (almost there now), and they know it. But since they (the old, evil central banks) can't control it - because it's not FIAT anymore, but asset backed - they are literally desperate now, because they are losing control... This may sound like a conspiracy theory, but there is enough information out there that can confirm this. In a few months from now (after the total collapse of the old financial system and the complete stock market crash), we will be wiser...

eql5 3y ago
...and just as a side note: a conspiracy is a felony (not a theory). So, the REAL problem is not an eventual "deep state" (secret societies do in fact exist, and they are called "secret" for a reason): the real problem are the "deep asleep" people around the world, not wanting to wake up to the truth... HN is one of the worst places in this regard...

api 3y ago

Inflation in everything but wages, information, and technology. Inflation adjusted wages are relatively flat compared to inflation elsewhere, while information and tech are deflating. The wave of super cheap EVs hasn’t even hit yet, and as you say AI hasn’t really hit yet. Solar power will soon be the cheapest source of power in history and it’s still falling. This has been going on for about two decades. How does this end? A bunch of superintelligent superconnected homeless cyborgs? Borg living in cardboard boxes pushing shopping carts around?

sph 3y ago
When economists throw Keynes in the bin where he belongs and accept that inflation is not because of lack of spending, but because of an ever expanding money supply. Not gonna happen anytime soon, governments love Keynesian economics.
- api 3y ago
  Keynes gets the blame for policies he never would have supported. He advocated counter cyclic spending: deficits during recessions, surpluses during booms. That and the idea of monetary velocity are his biggest insights. What we do isn’t Keynesian. We run deficits in recessions and deficits in booms and make them bigger and bigger. This has consistently happened under both major political parties (yes including Trump) since the 1980s.
crotchfire 3y ago
> How does this end? War, unfortunately.

Quothling 3y ago

> At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... I recommend reading Thomas Piketty if you want some of the more modern works on what is going on with our social economics in the west. It's not exactly a new phenomenon though, wealth inequality is part of the cycle of civilization and it always leads to some form of wealth redistribution. How that happens is historically up to whatever aristocracy is in charge, though with the introduction of democracy it's typically done through very high taxes. Before the Regan Thatcher era an 80% tax on the wealthiest (and this means all methods of income) wasn't uncommon, and they were still the wealthiest. Anyway. It's going to change eventually. Especially the housing market is going to suck. I'm Danish, I bought a townhouse with my wife for 3m DKK. If it were to follow my parents 30 year increase on their house, we should be able to sell it for 26m dkk by 2050... which isn't going to happen.

tasuki 3y ago
> If it were to follow my parents 30 year increase on their house, we should be able to sell it for 26m dkk by 2050... which isn't going to happen. Why not?
- Ekaros 3y ago
  That would be 3,5 million euros... I don't think inflation will be that substantial... Or market to stay that level weird to that point.
  - tasuki 3y ago
    2050 is still a long way. It'd be slightly below 16% per year (considering the house was bought in 2024, it might've been bought earlier). That sounds on the unlikely side, but definitely not in the "isn't going to happen" territory!
d--b 3y ago
Piketty, Varoufakis, they had their "occupy" moment... Sadly, nobody gives a shit about these guys anymore. Piketty joined the socialist candidate Benoit Hamon's campaign during France's 2017 presidential election. Hamon scored 6.36%, an extremely low number.

sph 3y ago

If one wishes to keep an open mind and explore non-mainstream views of the modern world economy, I recommend the first chapters of The Bitcoin Standard, by Saifedean Ammous, an actual trained economist. He has been interviewed by Lex Fridman if you prefer to hear him in podcast version. These chapters are not about bitcoin, but the societal shift that happened at the turn of last century when countries abandoned the gold standard to finance their wars. The Keynesian economic policy. The concept of time preference which shifts when the value of a currency is diluted by inflation. How very rich entities are allowed to grow richer simply because they are able to get large sums of money "at the source" before inflation has had the chance to raise prices for all of us, etc. Very unpopular in this circles where the mention of bitcoin is cause to raise pitchforks, and everybody loves to quote economists that seemingly have no clue what is going on.

DecentRecruiter 3y ago

Stock market: investors like that companies are correcting for the over-hiring that peaked in 2021 - lower costs & higher productivity. Housing prices: have barely increased since late 2022 in most major cities (falling in cities like Austin). Still, you're right, they're unreachable for most. Gold: it's not the traditional safe haven investment it used to be. Its correlation with stock prices is much higher than it was in the old days. Bitcoin: I will never understand!

bdw5204 3y ago
A "stock market boom" built on killing jobs is not a booming economy. That's why any politician who brags about or defends this morally indefensible "boom" is going to be in trouble politically.
- DecentRecruiter 3y ago
  I wouldn't call it morally indefensible for companies to make layoffs after the hiring irrational exuberance that occured in 2021. They're trimming fat. I would use that label for a Private Equity firm leveraged buyout, followed by a complete gutting of employees, then a quick flip for profit.

TMWNN 3y ago

>At some point, we'll need to throw all the economists into the sea and start realizing what's going on here... "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos <https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-212315127.html https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123...>