9 ms·

Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

65 points by woofcat 3y ago

karaterobot 3y ago
The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to draw an equivalence between the 2020s and the 1920s. Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other.
- sofixa 3y ago
  It's all the vague similarities - pandemics, wars, economic boom suspiciously looking like a bubble (be it the fact that many people can no longer afford housing, or that anyone and their grandfather is investing somehow). So nothing conclusive, but if we had conclusive metrics to point to that could indicate an economic bust is coming, we would be able to implement policies to prevent them.
  - roynasser 3y ago
    isn't this pretty common to most analyses of past events and attempts to make proxy analyses for the future? If we had all of the facts organized and known we would be able to prevent all crashes, etc, would we not? And apparently many people here on HN want to discredit the author's conclusions because they dont agree with them personally.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  > The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well I don't know if that's even well-defined based on the evidence presented - "a massive stock market boom". The (USA) economy is doing OK, especially when compared to other countries that have made other policy choices and are faring even worse. But "stock market go up" is not the same thing at all as "most people doing better". "High house prices" is also not a unambiguously wonderful thing. e.g. if you need to buy a house. Likewise Low Unemployment is not great if all the jobs are no-benefits gig work and you need three of them to pay off your massive student or medical debt. Lack of good consumer sentiment indicates this gap. And this oversimplifying to the point of meaninglessness is why I'm sceptical of the article's point.
- mseepgood 3y ago
  > Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. Even if history repeats in cycles for some astrological reason, why would it repeat in a 100 years cycle? Why not a 67 years cycle?
  - jareklupinski 3y ago
    since we 'invented' numbers and assigned 'meaning' to them, it makes more 'sense' to tack experiences to frequencies/periods that are easy to represent and seem to mean more than they do by virtue of being 'right at the edge' see: why everything costs x.99 units
  - Izkata 3y ago
    For another viewpoint, this is based around "human lifespan" cycles: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...
- bluetomcat 3y ago
  I don't know what the author of the article is drinking. Me and most of my relatives are in a significantly worse financial position since 2020. Wage growth has hardly matched the wild pace of inflation. Saving money is much harder. Decent jobs are hard to come by. It feels like an erosion of the middle class.
  - bartvk 3y ago
    > I don't know what the author of the article is drinking I think that's a bit harsh. The author runs a successful podcast, for a number of years now. I value his opinion, he usually backs up his opinion with numbers. I do sympathize with you, in the sense that I'm also earning less than I used to.
  - beej71 3y ago
    The author does point out that there was significant wealth inequality in the 1920s.
  - shrimp_emoji 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - roynasser 3y ago
    Your experiences are anecdotal but may not be the average... the relative number of people in homelessness has reduced from the 90's to today, that is certainly good.. (It has had a slight peak recently post pandemic). Purchasing power has climbed, hunger has reduced, I think all of these are important metrics to consider... I think people are much more polarized and that social media has brought out terrible polarity, but it doesnt necessarily mean the average person is not living better than 30 yrs ago.
    - Fire-Dragon-DoL 2y ago
      Well the op did state the problem being the middle class though. Stating this because supposedly, the middle class is not homeless or starving
  - 3y ago
1970-01-01 3y ago
Selling everything in Q2 2029 isn't even bad investment advice if you consider all the other very bad investment advice out there!
forgotmyinfo 3y ago
Probably! It's just unfortunate that we don't have any sort of New Deal, good jazz clubs, or Art Deco to make it suck less.
- ravenstine 3y ago
  In fairness, there are good jazz clubs in many major cities. People can choose to go to these kinds of clubs instead of hang around at home if they really want to. They do exist.
Bluecobra 3y ago
One parallel that I noticed is how prevalent these easy installment plans are now (Zip, AfterPay, etc) and they don’t require a credit check. People are even using them to buy basic necessities like groceries at Walmart which seems a bit concerning.
- sbuccini 3y ago
  They may not do a hard credit pull (which impacts credit score) but many of them do a soft pull and incorporate it into their underwriting.
derelicta 3y ago
> Housing prices are at all-time highs. and so is homelessness. Great. Wonderful.
mmphosis 3y ago
No, I don't think nice round numbers like 20 or 100 years show a pattern. I like to think more in terms of generations: 15 to 30 years. I can't predict the future. Please take my 30 year time-line idea as numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. It's broken into a decade each of boom-bust-war: 1890 boom "Klondike Gold Rush" 1900 bust "Panic of 1901" 1910 war WW1 1920 boom "Roaring" 1930 bust "Great Depression" 1940 war WW2 1950 boom "Golden Age" [1] 1960 bust [2] 1970 war Viet Nam 1980 boom "Long" [3] 1990 bust [4] [5] 2000 war Afghanistan, Iraq 2010 boom [6] 2020 bust [7] 2030 war [8] Of course, there are booms, busts and wars occurring at anytime. And some parts of the world might feel like they are in the future and some in the past. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_economic_expansion#Timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_econ... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961 [3] https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-causes-reagan-boom-1982-1997 https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-causes-reagan-boom-1982-... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_U... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble [6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-2009-recovery-act-kicked-off-over-10-years-of-economic-growth/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-20... [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-1... [8] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2800/RR2849z1/RAND_RR2849z1.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...
- Izkata 3y ago
  You may be interested in https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...
calebm 3y ago
I always thought it'd be romantic to live in the roaring 20's. Cheers!
1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
Strangely no mention of corruption. It led to new laws and reforms, all for the better.
makerdiety 3y ago
> Consumer sentiment doesn’t exactly line up with a roaring 20s mentality because people hate inflation and higher interest rates. But you have to watch what people do, not what they say. > People are spending money on food, travel, clothes and technology. Slaves don't have a choice but to spend their fiat money in a low interest rate world whose present condition of low interest rates exists only because this is the last exercise rep the government can push out before reality and nature come in to remove all the artificial economics implementations. In simple words, real capitalism has not yet been tried and a great reset away from stupidity and liberal-democratic welfare is coming. Malthus wins in the end, no matter how much you try to delay the inevitable.
- blastro 3y ago
  Malthus never factored ephemeralization into his calculations. We can produce more with less than ever before. Buckminister Fuller addresses this head on in his magnum opus "Critical Path"
  - 082349872349872 3y ago
    > Buckminister Fuller addresses this ... in ... "Critical Path" Wow, OG Solarpunk?
  - makerdiety 3y ago
    The ephemeral nature of the Tweet is nothing compared to the harsh fact that the highly efficient means of production (your producing more stuff with less resources) is in the hands of a segment of the population that wants to segregate itself away from the segment that has nothing but common men in it. So, every time someone tries to rebuke the Malthusian overpopulation condition, it's just a kidnapped person falling in love with his kidnapper. Or neo-feudal serfs trying to lick the boots of their assigned king in hopes of pleasing this would-be benefactor which lords over the mostly hopeless dwarf. Buckminister Fuller is the one with improper calculations. His libertarian's model for addressing effective capitalism (with the goal of central planning for a secessionary, yet still vassal, state) relies on old and obsolete conceptual tools, namely history itself. All geopolitical problems is a scam with at the top of that pyramid scheme suit wearing bureaucrats who are the characters from the 1984 dystopia, with no differences between them. You're kinda blind to your oppression and the totalitarian regime you're running under.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
olesya1979 3y ago
[dead]
ddorian43 3y ago
Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.
- gedy 3y ago
  > The previous generation is hellbent Previous generation is what, Gen X? Millenials? Yeah gee they had it so easy. Stop with the "generation blaming" stuff and blaming voodoo on them. Blame the people you vote for and who they kowtow to, nothing will ever change with petty envy and sour grapes for your neighbor down the street, etc.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - reedf1 3y ago
    The older generations are larger than younger ones in a demographic balloon, hence older generations are a plurality. This has many externalities (for which I agree) are caused by people voting simply in their best interests rather than malice. Now here is where I push back, is complaining about this unfair scenario "sour grapes" or "envy"? This is a winner takes all scenario. This wealthy group can vote for direct wealth extraction from the poor (which they do, again out of simple self interest) by constraining housing supply in an effective monopoly. That isn't fair, it's a moral hazard. It's not "petty" if you are proveably on the wrong side of demographics. Infact talking about it like this is the only way it can be fixed, as people can be informed into voting for the interests of someone other than themselves.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      Define “older generations”: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/ Those in their 30s right now are the biggest proportion. And 20 or 30 years ago, that population pyramid was even more tilted towards people in their 0 to 30s (obviously).
francisofascii 3y ago
> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can turn into a bust rather quickly.
- xadhominemx 3y ago
  Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.
  - JKCalhoun 3y ago
    > Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible. Anyone denying the possibility of another or similar Great Depression would seem to me to have no credibility. But maybe it's because I'm cynical.
  - liamconnell 3y ago
    Well I’m not saying I agree with it, but a comparison to the Great Depression is not out of context for an article comparing today’s economic situation to that immediately preceding the Great Depression!
  - sofixa 3y ago
    > Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis They are insane compared to the relative growth, or lack thereof, of median wages, yes. If an assets continues appreciating even past the point it's accessible to the vast majority of the population, "supply and demand econ 101" is no longer working. When that asset is one of the most critical components of life (housing) and on which many lives are built around (be it where one lives and works, or how many kids one can afford to house, or the community one can have), this is unquestionably not good and can have wild ramifications. Disenfranchised young people are a dangerous political force, while population declines could break economic models as we understand them today (it's bordering on the impossible to have infinite growth when the population is declining).

65 points by woofcat 3y ago

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to draw an equivalence between the 2020s and the 1920s. Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other.

sofixa 3y ago
It's all the vague similarities - pandemics, wars, economic boom suspiciously looking like a bubble (be it the fact that many people can no longer afford housing, or that anyone and their grandfather is investing somehow). So nothing conclusive, but if we had conclusive metrics to point to that could indicate an economic bust is coming, we would be able to implement policies to prevent them.
- roynasser 3y ago
  isn't this pretty common to most analyses of past events and attempts to make proxy analyses for the future? If we had all of the facts organized and known we would be able to prevent all crashes, etc, would we not? And apparently many people here on HN want to discredit the author's conclusions because they dont agree with them personally.
SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well I don't know if that's even well-defined based on the evidence presented - "a massive stock market boom". The (USA) economy is doing OK, especially when compared to other countries that have made other policy choices and are faring even worse. But "stock market go up" is not the same thing at all as "most people doing better". "High house prices" is also not a unambiguously wonderful thing. e.g. if you need to buy a house. Likewise Low Unemployment is not great if all the jobs are no-benefits gig work and you need three of them to pay off your massive student or medical debt. Lack of good consumer sentiment indicates this gap. And this oversimplifying to the point of meaninglessness is why I'm sceptical of the article's point.
mseepgood 3y ago
> Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. Even if history repeats in cycles for some astrological reason, why would it repeat in a 100 years cycle? Why not a 67 years cycle?
- jareklupinski 3y ago
  since we 'invented' numbers and assigned 'meaning' to them, it makes more 'sense' to tack experiences to frequencies/periods that are easy to represent and seem to mean more than they do by virtue of being 'right at the edge' see: why everything costs x.99 units
- Izkata 3y ago
  For another viewpoint, this is based around "human lifespan" cycles: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...
bluetomcat 3y ago
I don't know what the author of the article is drinking. Me and most of my relatives are in a significantly worse financial position since 2020. Wage growth has hardly matched the wild pace of inflation. Saving money is much harder. Decent jobs are hard to come by. It feels like an erosion of the middle class.
- bartvk 3y ago
  > I don't know what the author of the article is drinking I think that's a bit harsh. The author runs a successful podcast, for a number of years now. I value his opinion, he usually backs up his opinion with numbers. I do sympathize with you, in the sense that I'm also earning less than I used to.
- beej71 3y ago
  The author does point out that there was significant wealth inequality in the 1920s.
- shrimp_emoji 3y ago
  [flagged]
- roynasser 3y ago
  Your experiences are anecdotal but may not be the average... the relative number of people in homelessness has reduced from the 90's to today, that is certainly good.. (It has had a slight peak recently post pandemic). Purchasing power has climbed, hunger has reduced, I think all of these are important metrics to consider... I think people are much more polarized and that social media has brought out terrible polarity, but it doesnt necessarily mean the average person is not living better than 30 yrs ago.
  - Fire-Dragon-DoL 2y ago
    Well the op did state the problem being the middle class though. Stating this because supposedly, the middle class is not homeless or starving
- 3y ago

1970-01-01 3y ago

Selling everything in Q2 2029 isn't even bad investment advice if you consider all the other very bad investment advice out there!

forgotmyinfo 3y ago

Probably! It's just unfortunate that we don't have any sort of New Deal, good jazz clubs, or Art Deco to make it suck less.

ravenstine 3y ago
In fairness, there are good jazz clubs in many major cities. People can choose to go to these kinds of clubs instead of hang around at home if they really want to. They do exist.

Bluecobra 3y ago

One parallel that I noticed is how prevalent these easy installment plans are now (Zip, AfterPay, etc) and they don’t require a credit check. People are even using them to buy basic necessities like groceries at Walmart which seems a bit concerning.

sbuccini 3y ago
They may not do a hard credit pull (which impacts credit score) but many of them do a soft pull and incorporate it into their underwriting.

derelicta 3y ago

> Housing prices are at all-time highs. and so is homelessness. Great. Wonderful.

mmphosis 3y ago

No, I don't think nice round numbers like 20 or 100 years show a pattern. I like to think more in terms of generations: 15 to 30 years. I can't predict the future. Please take my 30 year time-line idea as numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. It's broken into a decade each of boom-bust-war: 1890 boom "Klondike Gold Rush" 1900 bust "Panic of 1901" 1910 war WW1 1920 boom "Roaring" 1930 bust "Great Depression" 1940 war WW2 1950 boom "Golden Age" [1] 1960 bust [2] 1970 war Viet Nam 1980 boom "Long" [3] 1990 bust [4] [5] 2000 war Afghanistan, Iraq 2010 boom [6] 2020 bust [7] 2030 war [8] Of course, there are booms, busts and wars occurring at anytime. And some parts of the world might feel like they are in the future and some in the past. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_economic_expansion#Timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_econ... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961 [3] https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-causes-reagan-boom-1982-1997 https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-causes-reagan-boom-1982-... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_U... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble [6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-2009-recovery-act-kicked-off-over-10-years-of-economic-growth/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-20... [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-1... [8] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2800/RR2849z1/RAND_RR2849z1.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...

Izkata 3y ago
You may be interested in https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...

calebm 3y ago

I always thought it'd be romantic to live in the roaring 20's. Cheers!

1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago

Strangely no mention of corruption. It led to new laws and reforms, all for the better.

makerdiety 3y ago

> Consumer sentiment doesn’t exactly line up with a roaring 20s mentality because people hate inflation and higher interest rates. But you have to watch what people do, not what they say. > People are spending money on food, travel, clothes and technology. Slaves don't have a choice but to spend their fiat money in a low interest rate world whose present condition of low interest rates exists only because this is the last exercise rep the government can push out before reality and nature come in to remove all the artificial economics implementations. In simple words, real capitalism has not yet been tried and a great reset away from stupidity and liberal-democratic welfare is coming. Malthus wins in the end, no matter how much you try to delay the inevitable.

blastro 3y ago
Malthus never factored ephemeralization into his calculations. We can produce more with less than ever before. Buckminister Fuller addresses this head on in his magnum opus "Critical Path"
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  > Buckminister Fuller addresses this ... in ... "Critical Path" Wow, OG Solarpunk?
- makerdiety 3y ago
  The ephemeral nature of the Tweet is nothing compared to the harsh fact that the highly efficient means of production (your producing more stuff with less resources) is in the hands of a segment of the population that wants to segregate itself away from the segment that has nothing but common men in it. So, every time someone tries to rebuke the Malthusian overpopulation condition, it's just a kidnapped person falling in love with his kidnapper. Or neo-feudal serfs trying to lick the boots of their assigned king in hopes of pleasing this would-be benefactor which lords over the mostly hopeless dwarf. Buckminister Fuller is the one with improper calculations. His libertarian's model for addressing effective capitalism (with the goal of central planning for a secessionary, yet still vassal, state) relies on old and obsolete conceptual tools, namely history itself. All geopolitical problems is a scam with at the top of that pyramid scheme suit wearing bureaucrats who are the characters from the 1984 dystopia, with no differences between them. You're kinda blind to your oppression and the totalitarian regime you're running under.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

olesya1979 3y ago

[dead]

ddorian43 3y ago

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

gedy 3y ago
> The previous generation is hellbent Previous generation is what, Gen X? Millenials? Yeah gee they had it so easy. Stop with the "generation blaming" stuff and blaming voodoo on them. Blame the people you vote for and who they kowtow to, nothing will ever change with petty envy and sour grapes for your neighbor down the street, etc.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- reedf1 3y ago
  The older generations are larger than younger ones in a demographic balloon, hence older generations are a plurality. This has many externalities (for which I agree) are caused by people voting simply in their best interests rather than malice. Now here is where I push back, is complaining about this unfair scenario "sour grapes" or "envy"? This is a winner takes all scenario. This wealthy group can vote for direct wealth extraction from the poor (which they do, again out of simple self interest) by constraining housing supply in an effective monopoly. That isn't fair, it's a moral hazard. It's not "petty" if you are proveably on the wrong side of demographics. Infact talking about it like this is the only way it can be fixed, as people can be informed into voting for the interests of someone other than themselves.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Define “older generations”: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/ Those in their 30s right now are the biggest proportion. And 20 or 30 years ago, that population pyramid was even more tilted towards people in their 0 to 30s (obviously).

francisofascii 3y ago

> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can turn into a bust rather quickly.

xadhominemx 3y ago
Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.
- JKCalhoun 3y ago
  > Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible. Anyone denying the possibility of another or similar Great Depression would seem to me to have no credibility. But maybe it's because I'm cynical.
- liamconnell 3y ago
  Well I’m not saying I agree with it, but a comparison to the Great Depression is not out of context for an article comparing today’s economic situation to that immediately preceding the Great Depression!
- sofixa 3y ago
  > Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis They are insane compared to the relative growth, or lack thereof, of median wages, yes. If an assets continues appreciating even past the point it's accessible to the vast majority of the population, "supply and demand econ 101" is no longer working. When that asset is one of the most critical components of life (housing) and on which many lives are built around (be it where one lives and works, or how many kids one can afford to house, or the community one can have), this is unquestionably not good and can have wild ramifications. Disenfranchised young people are a dangerous political force, while population declines could break economic models as we understand them today (it's bordering on the impossible to have infinite growth when the population is declining).