4 ms·

Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short

Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short term. Any characteristics derived from self-reported or externally observed data that successful group shares is always askewed due to selection or surviorship bias because of this. The only true thing here is: people who analyze the data more and reason based on this, can draw better outcome. It is not luck, but yes, might look like one. Cheers!

DougN7 3y ago
I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
- starbugs 3y ago
  > take more chances That seems to be the key here.
- johnchristopher 3y ago
  You can work harder at tossing coins and toss them more often but previous outcomes do not affect current or future outcomes in any way. No matter how many times in a row a coin lands tails up, there is still only a 50% chance that it will land heads up on the next flip. Working harder/smarter than someone else at something for which each try increases your capability to influence the next try should give you an edge in a competition but now it's not about luck. > I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t. Now, if anything, you can also postulate that people who believe they are lucky don't work harder and take less chances (hey, they are lucky, they don't need to try as much as others). So the question would be: why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck more than some who don't think they are lucky and why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck less than some who don't think they are lucky ? It's two opposite behaviour but they have the same belief. Why ?
  - mike-the-mikado 3y ago
    If price of failure on a coin toss is less than the value of success, then flipping the coins as rapidly as possible is a winning strategy. (I've worked on failure after failure, but the occasional success has more than compensated for these).
    - johnchristopher 3y ago
      It doesn't matter how fast you flip coins, in the end it'll be 50/50 anyway and you'd still get the same success (price of failure wouldn't matter, it'll always be the same value in the end).
karmakaze 3y ago
Many successes are unintended outcomes while trying to do something else. Without awareness of the opportunity and pivoting, there would be no success to write about (or possibly a different one if lightning struck twice).
ffsm8 3y ago
> It is not luck, but yes, might look like one. Are you equating luck with random chance? Because it totally is luck, even if it's not random chance

DougN7 3y ago

I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.

starbugs 3y ago
> take more chances That seems to be the key here.
johnchristopher 3y ago
You can work harder at tossing coins and toss them more often but previous outcomes do not affect current or future outcomes in any way. No matter how many times in a row a coin lands tails up, there is still only a 50% chance that it will land heads up on the next flip. Working harder/smarter than someone else at something for which each try increases your capability to influence the next try should give you an edge in a competition but now it's not about luck. > I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t. Now, if anything, you can also postulate that people who believe they are lucky don't work harder and take less chances (hey, they are lucky, they don't need to try as much as others). So the question would be: why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck more than some who don't think they are lucky and why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck less than some who don't think they are lucky ? It's two opposite behaviour but they have the same belief. Why ?
- mike-the-mikado 3y ago
  If price of failure on a coin toss is less than the value of success, then flipping the coins as rapidly as possible is a winning strategy. (I've worked on failure after failure, but the occasional success has more than compensated for these).
  - johnchristopher 3y ago
    It doesn't matter how fast you flip coins, in the end it'll be 50/50 anyway and you'd still get the same success (price of failure wouldn't matter, it'll always be the same value in the end).

karmakaze 3y ago

Many successes are unintended outcomes while trying to do something else. Without awareness of the opportunity and pivoting, there would be no success to write about (or possibly a different one if lightning struck twice).

ffsm8 3y ago

> It is not luck, but yes, might look like one. Are you equating luck with random chance? Because it totally is luck, even if it's not random chance