5 ms·

A bit off-topic but maybe not? Any words on GPT-5? Is that coming? Or is OpenAI just focusing on the Sora model?

YetAnotherNick 3y ago
There's no reason for OpenAI to release the model. They have close to 100% market anyways and releasing GPT-5 likely won't increase the total market as it is a incremental leap. And it's a open secret that most other models used GPT-4 synthetic data for training to come close to it. They would likely wait till any model performs better than GPT 4 for the same price
- tosh 3y ago
  100%? Claude 3 Opus is in the capability ballpark of GPT-4, GPT-3.5 has alternatives that are cheaper (Claude 3 Haiku) or cheaper and work offline (Qwen 1.5, Mixtral, …).
  - ZitchDog 3y ago
    100% market share. A competitor will likely need to be 10x better than ChatGPT in order to get significant market share, not just marginally better in certain scenarios.
  - Kostic 3y ago
    Is Claude 3 Opus generating more profits and taking considerable amount of customers from OpenAI? I'm not seeing that yet. Granted, I'm in Europe (outside of EU) so I can't pay for Opus but I guess that kinda confirms my statement. GPT4 is still a good product and there are no market pressures to release GPT5.
- lewhoo 3y ago
  There is reason to release new models if said models would be capable of grabbing a significant portion of job market currently occupied by humans.
- whiplash451 3y ago
  The same reasoning would have applied for GPT-3.5. In the hindsight, you can say that it was obviously a good idea to build and ship GPT4. But hindsight is 20/20.
  - YetAnotherNick 3y ago
    There are few differences. Firstly, GPT-3.5 wasn't ahead of Palm etc. from Google which was published at the same time as GPT-4. Secondly, GPT-4 increased overall AI market. According to all the sources, interviews and leaks, GPT-5 won't be a big leap over GPT-4 as the model size and training data won't be significantly larger. I doubt GPT-5 would do that. (I could be wrong in my assumption though that GPT-5 would just be a incremental gain).
- chilmers 3y ago
  By any chance did you used to work in leadership at Nokia or Research in Motion? :-D
  - YetAnotherNick 3y ago
    Nokia wasn't that ahead in technology and Motion wasn't that ahead in market. GPT-4 is ahead in both.
burrish 3y ago
I hear it should be dropped this summer
- cornedor 3y ago
  According to Sam Altman in a podcast with Lex Fridman this week, there is no real indication that it will be dropped this year. They will release a new model, but it might not be GPT-5
  - burrish 3y ago
    Fair enough, I got the info from this article https://web.archive.org/web/20240319224624/https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3 https://web.archive.org/web/20240319224624/https://www.busin...
  - whiplash451 3y ago
    Which is an indication of nothing. In which world would Sam A. drop any kind of info about such a sensitive topic? If anything, this could just be deception before a massive drop.
    - HarHarVeryFunny 3y ago
      Could also be resetting expectations for people who've been expecting GPT-5 (or just GPT-4.5) sooner - been a year now since GPT-4 was released. The other odd thing from Altman was saying that GPT-4 sucks. I think the context for both announcements is the recent release of Anthropic's Claude-3, which in it's largest "Opus" form beats GPT-4 across the board in benchmarks. I personally think OpenAI/Altman is a bit scared that any moat/lead they had has disappeared and they are now being out-competed by Anthropic (Claude). Remember that Anthropic as a company was only formed (by core members of the OpenAI LLM team) at the same time as GPT-3 was released, so in same time it took OpenAI to go from GPT-3 to GPT-4, Anthropic have gone from nothing -> Claude-1 -> Claude-2 -> Claude-3 which beats GPT-4 !! Anthropic have also had quite a bit of success attracting corporate business, quite a bit of which is more long-term in nature (sharing details of expected future model capabilities so that partners can target those). So, I think OpenAI is running a bit scared, and I'd interpret this non-announcement of some model (4.5 or 5) "coming soonish" to be them just waving the flag and saying "we'll be back on top soon", which they presumably will be, briefly, when their next release(s) do come out. Altman's odd "GPT-4 sucks" statement might be meant to downplay Claude-3 "Opus" which beats it.

There's no reason for OpenAI to release the model. They have close to 100% market anyways and releasing GPT-5 likely won't increase the total market as it is a incremental leap. And it's a open secret that most other models used GPT-4 synthetic data for training to come close to it. They would likely wait till any model performs better than GPT 4 for the same price

tosh 3y ago
100%? Claude 3 Opus is in the capability ballpark of GPT-4, GPT-3.5 has alternatives that are cheaper (Claude 3 Haiku) or cheaper and work offline (Qwen 1.5, Mixtral, …).
- ZitchDog 3y ago
  100% market share. A competitor will likely need to be 10x better than ChatGPT in order to get significant market share, not just marginally better in certain scenarios.
- Kostic 3y ago
  Is Claude 3 Opus generating more profits and taking considerable amount of customers from OpenAI? I'm not seeing that yet. Granted, I'm in Europe (outside of EU) so I can't pay for Opus but I guess that kinda confirms my statement. GPT4 is still a good product and there are no market pressures to release GPT5.
lewhoo 3y ago
There is reason to release new models if said models would be capable of grabbing a significant portion of job market currently occupied by humans.
whiplash451 3y ago
The same reasoning would have applied for GPT-3.5. In the hindsight, you can say that it was obviously a good idea to build and ship GPT4. But hindsight is 20/20.
- YetAnotherNick 3y ago
  There are few differences. Firstly, GPT-3.5 wasn't ahead of Palm etc. from Google which was published at the same time as GPT-4. Secondly, GPT-4 increased overall AI market. According to all the sources, interviews and leaks, GPT-5 won't be a big leap over GPT-4 as the model size and training data won't be significantly larger. I doubt GPT-5 would do that. (I could be wrong in my assumption though that GPT-5 would just be a incremental gain).
chilmers 3y ago
By any chance did you used to work in leadership at Nokia or Research in Motion? :-D
- YetAnotherNick 3y ago
  Nokia wasn't that ahead in technology and Motion wasn't that ahead in market. GPT-4 is ahead in both.

burrish 3y ago

I hear it should be dropped this summer

cornedor 3y ago
According to Sam Altman in a podcast with Lex Fridman this week, there is no real indication that it will be dropped this year. They will release a new model, but it might not be GPT-5
- burrish 3y ago
  Fair enough, I got the info from this article https://web.archive.org/web/20240319224624/https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3 https://web.archive.org/web/20240319224624/https://www.busin...
- whiplash451 3y ago
  Which is an indication of nothing. In which world would Sam A. drop any kind of info about such a sensitive topic? If anything, this could just be deception before a massive drop.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 3y ago
    Could also be resetting expectations for people who've been expecting GPT-5 (or just GPT-4.5) sooner - been a year now since GPT-4 was released. The other odd thing from Altman was saying that GPT-4 sucks. I think the context for both announcements is the recent release of Anthropic's Claude-3, which in it's largest "Opus" form beats GPT-4 across the board in benchmarks. I personally think OpenAI/Altman is a bit scared that any moat/lead they had has disappeared and they are now being out-competed by Anthropic (Claude). Remember that Anthropic as a company was only formed (by core members of the OpenAI LLM team) at the same time as GPT-3 was released, so in same time it took OpenAI to go from GPT-3 to GPT-4, Anthropic have gone from nothing -> Claude-1 -> Claude-2 -> Claude-3 which beats GPT-4 !! Anthropic have also had quite a bit of success attracting corporate business, quite a bit of which is more long-term in nature (sharing details of expected future model capabilities so that partners can target those). So, I think OpenAI is running a bit scared, and I'd interpret this non-announcement of some model (4.5 or 5) "coming soonish" to be them just waving the flag and saying "we'll be back on top soon", which they presumably will be, briefly, when their next release(s) do come out. Altman's odd "GPT-4 sucks" statement might be meant to downplay Claude-3 "Opus" which beats it.