Price to earnings ratio's are about twice what they were historically, https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe which would suggest

Price to earnings ratio's are about twice what they were historically, https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe which would suggest 3% inflation adjusted returns. This isn't a serious prediction, just an observation that it takes a lot of optimism to tell people they'll get 6% returns because of their preferred data point.