3 ms·
Nice smooth exponential curve, debt held by public as percentage of GDP through 2053.[1] During the GFC, the projections always flattened over the long term. Th
by unyttigfjelltol 3y ago
Nice smooth exponential curve, debt held by public as percentage of GDP through 2053.[1] During the GFC, the projections always flattened over the long term. There's no longer even a pretense of plans to normalize. We've lived for a long time in the "no serious consequences" regime; this set of projections seems different.
[1] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59711 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59711
- nwiswell 3y agoThis seems to have more to do with population growth projections over the very long run rather than anything that's actually going on in Congress right now. Bottom line, our taxes need to go up modestly in the coming decades... but only if these assumptions actually prove to be true: > Inflation slows through 2026 to a rate that is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2 percent and then remains at rates that are consistent with that goal from 2026 to 2054. > Interest rates generally rise over the next three decades, largely as a result of projected increases in federal borrowing and in capital income as a share of total income. ... I doubt it! Look what happens to interest rates in graying countries like Japan.