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I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years.

I know most people don’t believe this, but it is likely that electric cars have a good chance of becoming far cheaper than ICE cars over the coming 5-10 years. EVs are complex, but in ways that are much more subject to economies of scale. For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. Electric motor assembly is highly automatable and a fraction of the cost of assembling engines. There are no emission control systems, fuel systems, exhaust systems. That leaves battery materials and construction, and these are dropping fast. Goldman Sachs just predicted pack-level prices will be below $100 KWh by 2025 and continue dropping by 11% per year throughout the decade. In fact, BYD already sells a perfectly-reasonable EV in China for around $11,000 US equivalent. There will, of course, always be premium priced EVs in the market, but I believe the lower bound of the market will be much lower than the Corollas, Tercels and Honda Fits of today.

m463 3y ago
I'm a little afraid "economies of scale" will turn into a steering wheel one or two pedals and an ipad, no other controls.
- yaomtc 3y ago
  I really hope automakers don't start embracing touchscreens even more. Tactile feedback / muscle memory is important for safer operation. At least Mazda seems to get that[1], if only others would get over their minimalism obsession. Would embrace regulations requiring physical controls for most common tasks. [1]: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1121372_why-mazda-is-purging-touchscreens-from-its-vehicles https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1121372_why-mazda-is-pur...
  - beached_whale 3y ago
    I want the year 2010 car experience with some of the EV benefits. So electric motor/battery/charging/steer and break by wire/classic dials for speed/classic climate control controls/classic signalling and lighting controls/... Maybe Carplay/Android Auto, but no tracking or operating controls that are touch screens. Also, a way to disable the display with a button.
    - pests 3y ago
      I don't think anything is brake by wire, even that Lexus has a failsafe mode that ultimately is a direct physical connection. No saving parts there yet.
      - ssl-3 3y ago
        One-pedal mode exists on many EVs, wherein: A person can drive around (and come to a complete stop) without ever touching the brake pedal. If that isn't brake by wire, then what is?
        m463 3y ago
        that's assisted brakes. <thing>-by-wire means there is a control with no physical connection to <thing>. for example, older tesla cars can steer themselves, but the steering wheel still connects to the front wheels mechanically. The newer cybertruck has a steer-by-wire. The wheels are turned side to side by motors, but the steering wheel is not mechanically hooked to it, it's just an electronic controller.
        ssl-3 3y ago
        It sounds more like brake-by-wire alongside a regular brake pedal.
        pests 3y ago
        The one-pedal though is only a mechanical assistance to the existing connection between the brake pedal and the brake. Maybe we're splitting hairs, but its more akin to power steering.
        ssl-3 3y ago
        With [traditional] power-assisted steering, there is always a direct mechanical connection between the wheel and the steering box/rack. It's assisted, usually hydraulically, but it is not isolated by a wire; that direct mechanical connection is always there. With [traditional] power-assisted brakes, there is always a direct connection between the pedal doing the braking and the wheel cylinders. It's assisted (usually, but not always, by vacuum), but that direct mechanical connection is always there. With one-pedal driving that only uses exactly one pedal, there is never a direct mechanical connection between that singular pedal and the braking system. That connection is only electrical; there is no direct mechanical (or hydraulic, to split hairs) connection at all. It is entirely brake-by-wire, unless one chooses to place a foot on the brake pedal and thereby do something other than one-pedal driving. Thus: Unless there's hydraulics connected to the accelerator pedal, then: As long as mechanical braking (pads-on-rotors friction) can be performed in one-pedal mode (and it can be), then one-pedal mode must perform braking-by-wire. We're already there, I think; people use brake-by-wire every day. (That we also have a functional hydraulic brake pedal as a backup does not mean that brake-by-wire is not a thing that one-pedal-mode provides.) (If that sounds aggressive, then I apologize. I'm still recovering from a vacation with a 30-hour drive, and I may be up too late, and may also be drinking a bit much tonight.)
lancesells 3y ago
I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fair wage then maybe that could happen. Instead, most US corporations pay employees as low as possible, take as much money from the consumer as possible, and have the excess go to executives and shareholders.
- stubish 3y ago
  Watch Australia. I feel the same way about the incumbent manufacturers and their pricing and chasing the higher end market. But BYD has come and captured a huge chunk of the EV market, and that is before releasing their low cost vehicles.
  - ianai 3y ago
    They could really only do that as long as zero interest rates and relative wages permitted. Frankly I think they made luxury EVs to justify the battery costs early in the production. The automotive industry is known for bad margins. Interest rates go up, willingness to pay for large ticket items goes down. We won’t see anything like 0 percent rates for possibly 100 years. One interesting outcome: near shoring of production drives local labor wages up for the long, permanent term. Maybe more in India/Mexico than the US, but still significant. And better for all than the past.
- mertd 3y ago
  > I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. Have you checked Tesla prices over the last 12 months?
  - lancesells 3y ago
    No, but after having checked it looks like prices have dropped but also go up and down so word is still out if they keep dropping on scale or if it's just stock price shenanigans. https://www.skills.ai/tesla-car-prices-analysis/ https://www.skills.ai/tesla-car-prices-analysis/
andrewmcwatters 3y ago
> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.
- hackerlight 3y ago
  Still, the cost per unit will decrease as the number of units increases, which was the point.
  - andrewmcwatters 3y ago
    You can say the same thing about any product mass produced.
    - hackerlight 3y ago
      Not everything has the same unit economics. The self-driving software is one part of the costs that is heavy on the fixed costs side and will therefore scale better than other costs. If you produce a million cars vs one car, the cost to make that software isn't a million times more expensive.
  - refulgentis 3y ago
    There isn't really a reason to expect a significant effect, in practice, Tesla COGS/unit plateaued a few 100K ago. It's a bit too abstract and high-level. Batteries specifically does make sense, ex. Model X has 100 kWh battery. if I price out 100 kWh at $200 right now (high) and its $100 a decade from now, about $20K. "Software" is hand-waving. Electric motors being easier does make sense.
- dzhiurgis 3y ago
  Both of your examples are kind of monopolies Is there any car software that’s “open”?
jjtheblunt 3y ago
You skipped the complex heat pump system needed to regulate battery pack temperatures (and used for cabin temps as well). BMW i4,i5,i7,iX built in mid to late 2023 use an outsourced system that widely failed in cold temps. Tesla has a famously ingenious simpler but efficient custom in house design.
- stephen_g 3y ago
  This kind of comment is perplexing to me. I'm always really confused why people try to claim heat pumps are complicated because they're not really (especially compared to many of the systems in ICE cars). Most cars have even already contained a heat pump for many decades (an air conditioner is exactly the same, just moving heat the opposite direction. It literally takes one extra valve to make it bi-directional). There are videos of hobbyists making heat pumps from compressors salvaged out of fridges or ice makers, and other scrounged parts, maybe an Arduino controlling it! They're amazingly simple when you see what they're made up of. Sure, it sounds like there were problems with this system used in BMWs, but that's likely just a design issue. Pumping a coolant around a battery and then through a heat exchanger (that is part of the heat pump) is not that difficult compared to the cooling of an extremely complex internal combustion engine!
  - jjtheblunt 3y ago
    Right: it’s not conceptually complex and Tesla, as i mentioned, shows such. The parent comment to which i replied was listing significant systems in an EV, and hadn’t mentioned thermal regulation. BMW’s outsourced Vitesco (part of Continental Power Trains originally) design differs in engineering (materials, components integration), with more disjoint components and more components therefore needing interconnections, and had cars (service bulletins applied to thousands) across Finland, Germany, Canada, US, UK, failing and leaking in a juncture not present on the Tesla design. (“Ask me how I know…twice.”)
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    The complexity and ingenuity in the Tesla heat pump system is the octovalve, not the heat pump. 8 different places to source/sink heat, with different set points. Keep the battery, motor, interior each at different optimal temperatures with a single heat pump.

m463 3y ago

I'm a little afraid "economies of scale" will turn into a steering wheel one or two pedals and an ipad, no other controls.

yaomtc 3y ago
I really hope automakers don't start embracing touchscreens even more. Tactile feedback / muscle memory is important for safer operation. At least Mazda seems to get that[1], if only others would get over their minimalism obsession. Would embrace regulations requiring physical controls for most common tasks. [1]: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1121372_why-mazda-is-purging-touchscreens-from-its-vehicles https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1121372_why-mazda-is-pur...
- beached_whale 3y ago
  I want the year 2010 car experience with some of the EV benefits. So electric motor/battery/charging/steer and break by wire/classic dials for speed/classic climate control controls/classic signalling and lighting controls/... Maybe Carplay/Android Auto, but no tracking or operating controls that are touch screens. Also, a way to disable the display with a button.
  - pests 3y ago
    I don't think anything is brake by wire, even that Lexus has a failsafe mode that ultimately is a direct physical connection. No saving parts there yet.
    - ssl-3 3y ago
      One-pedal mode exists on many EVs, wherein: A person can drive around (and come to a complete stop) without ever touching the brake pedal. If that isn't brake by wire, then what is?
      - m463 3y ago
        that's assisted brakes. <thing>-by-wire means there is a control with no physical connection to <thing>. for example, older tesla cars can steer themselves, but the steering wheel still connects to the front wheels mechanically. The newer cybertruck has a steer-by-wire. The wheels are turned side to side by motors, but the steering wheel is not mechanically hooked to it, it's just an electronic controller.
        ssl-3 3y ago
        It sounds more like brake-by-wire alongside a regular brake pedal.
        pests 3y ago
        The one-pedal though is only a mechanical assistance to the existing connection between the brake pedal and the brake. Maybe we're splitting hairs, but its more akin to power steering.
        ssl-3 3y ago
        With [traditional] power-assisted steering, there is always a direct mechanical connection between the wheel and the steering box/rack. It's assisted, usually hydraulically, but it is not isolated by a wire; that direct mechanical connection is always there. With [traditional] power-assisted brakes, there is always a direct connection between the pedal doing the braking and the wheel cylinders. It's assisted (usually, but not always, by vacuum), but that direct mechanical connection is always there. With one-pedal driving that only uses exactly one pedal, there is never a direct mechanical connection between that singular pedal and the braking system. That connection is only electrical; there is no direct mechanical (or hydraulic, to split hairs) connection at all. It is entirely brake-by-wire, unless one chooses to place a foot on the brake pedal and thereby do something other than one-pedal driving. Thus: Unless there's hydraulics connected to the accelerator pedal, then: As long as mechanical braking (pads-on-rotors friction) can be performed in one-pedal mode (and it can be), then one-pedal mode must perform braking-by-wire. We're already there, I think; people use brake-by-wire every day. (That we also have a functional hydraulic brake pedal as a backup does not mean that brake-by-wire is not a thing that one-pedal-mode provides.) (If that sounds aggressive, then I apologize. I'm still recovering from a vacation with a 30-hour drive, and I may be up too late, and may also be drinking a bit much tonight.)

lancesells 3y ago

I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. They'll either have higher margins or they'll just add more features to raise the price. Average car price in 2002 was ~$19k. Adjusted for inflation is ~$33k. Average car price in 2024 is $48k. If a company was run in a more sane way where they want to provide cars at a reasonable price where the company can pay it's employees a fair wage then maybe that could happen. Instead, most US corporations pay employees as low as possible, take as much money from the consumer as possible, and have the excess go to executives and shareholders.

stubish 3y ago
Watch Australia. I feel the same way about the incumbent manufacturers and their pricing and chasing the higher end market. But BYD has come and captured a huge chunk of the EV market, and that is before releasing their low cost vehicles.
- ianai 3y ago
  They could really only do that as long as zero interest rates and relative wages permitted. Frankly I think they made luxury EVs to justify the battery costs early in the production. The automotive industry is known for bad margins. Interest rates go up, willingness to pay for large ticket items goes down. We won’t see anything like 0 percent rates for possibly 100 years. One interesting outcome: near shoring of production drives local labor wages up for the long, permanent term. Maybe more in India/Mexico than the US, but still significant. And better for all than the past.
mertd 3y ago
> I'm in the US and I don't see any current manufacturer lowering their price over time. Have you checked Tesla prices over the last 12 months?
- lancesells 3y ago
  No, but after having checked it looks like prices have dropped but also go up and down so word is still out if they keep dropping on scale or if it's just stock price shenanigans. https://www.skills.ai/tesla-car-prices-analysis/ https://www.skills.ai/tesla-car-prices-analysis/

andrewmcwatters 3y ago

> For example, much of their value is in the software, which replicates for nearly zero marginal cost. People have been saying this for decades now and conveniently forget that replacing CD cases with Internet downloads doesn't eliminate the fact that software engineering is expensive in itself. Crazy how TurboTax isn't $5 or Tesla FSD doesn't come standard. So much for zero marginal cost.

hackerlight 3y ago
Still, the cost per unit will decrease as the number of units increases, which was the point.
- andrewmcwatters 3y ago
  You can say the same thing about any product mass produced.
  - hackerlight 3y ago
    Not everything has the same unit economics. The self-driving software is one part of the costs that is heavy on the fixed costs side and will therefore scale better than other costs. If you produce a million cars vs one car, the cost to make that software isn't a million times more expensive.
- refulgentis 3y ago
  There isn't really a reason to expect a significant effect, in practice, Tesla COGS/unit plateaued a few 100K ago. It's a bit too abstract and high-level. Batteries specifically does make sense, ex. Model X has 100 kWh battery. if I price out 100 kWh at $200 right now (high) and its $100 a decade from now, about $20K. "Software" is hand-waving. Electric motors being easier does make sense.
dzhiurgis 3y ago
Both of your examples are kind of monopolies Is there any car software that’s “open”?

jjtheblunt 3y ago

You skipped the complex heat pump system needed to regulate battery pack temperatures (and used for cabin temps as well). BMW i4,i5,i7,iX built in mid to late 2023 use an outsourced system that widely failed in cold temps. Tesla has a famously ingenious simpler but efficient custom in house design.

stephen_g 3y ago
This kind of comment is perplexing to me. I'm always really confused why people try to claim heat pumps are complicated because they're not really (especially compared to many of the systems in ICE cars). Most cars have even already contained a heat pump for many decades (an air conditioner is exactly the same, just moving heat the opposite direction. It literally takes one extra valve to make it bi-directional). There are videos of hobbyists making heat pumps from compressors salvaged out of fridges or ice makers, and other scrounged parts, maybe an Arduino controlling it! They're amazingly simple when you see what they're made up of. Sure, it sounds like there were problems with this system used in BMWs, but that's likely just a design issue. Pumping a coolant around a battery and then through a heat exchanger (that is part of the heat pump) is not that difficult compared to the cooling of an extremely complex internal combustion engine!
- jjtheblunt 3y ago
  Right: it’s not conceptually complex and Tesla, as i mentioned, shows such. The parent comment to which i replied was listing significant systems in an EV, and hadn’t mentioned thermal regulation. BMW’s outsourced Vitesco (part of Continental Power Trains originally) design differs in engineering (materials, components integration), with more disjoint components and more components therefore needing interconnections, and had cars (service bulletins applied to thousands) across Finland, Germany, Canada, US, UK, failing and leaking in a juncture not present on the Tesla design. (“Ask me how I know…twice.”)
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  The complexity and ingenuity in the Tesla heat pump system is the octovalve, not the heat pump. 8 different places to source/sink heat, with different set points. Keep the battery, motor, interior each at different optimal temperatures with a single heat pump.