3 ms·
I belive by 2030 or so we will may have models that can generate video, audio, and text that is indistinguishable from a normal human being ("The Zoom Call Turi
by dekhn 3y ago
I belive by 2030 or so we will may have models that can generate video, audio, and text that is indistinguishable from a normal human being ("The Zoom Call Turing Test"). But that doesn't mean anything- it's unclear whether such a system is intelligent, or merely a highly generalized mimic.
It will probably require an enormous amount of compute power and data, which means it will only be available to groups with $100+B to spend.
- gryfft 3y ago> it's unclear whether such a system is intelligent, or merely a highly generalized mimic. This seems to ignore the entire point of the Turing Test.
- dekhn 3y agoPrecisely! I await the time when more people realize the turing test doesn't tell you anything about the underlying intelligence of the agent you're interacting with.
- atleastoptimal 3y agoWhat's the difference then between something being intelligent and something being able to do everything something that is intelligent can but isn't intelligent?
- dekhn 3y agoThat's a great question! I would say that probably (but hard to prove), if something is a generalized intelligence mimic, it's probably best to treat it as intelligent, and as long as we don't have a reliable, quantitative metric for intelligence, we won't be able to say for sure. Although I was originally a solipsist, I take it as given that other humans, dogs, cats, octopuses, and a wide range of other creatures are "truly" intelligent, but I honestly have no biophysical way to test that.
- akasakahakada 3y ago> I belive by 2030 Achieved already in 2024
- pants2 3y agoThere's no tech today that can pass a zoom call turing test, not even close when you account for the live aspect. There are plenty of things on a zoom call that LLMs currently can't do like "Hey can you whistle your favorite tune?"
- codethatwerks 3y agoI don’t think you need a strict superset of human talents to be an AGI. Certainly whistling tunes is not required.