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> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. You haven't heard a solid argument against me person
by shawabawa3 3y ago
> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years.
You haven't heard a solid argument against me personally achieving full self-driving either, but that doesn't make it realistic
You are also assuming they are able to sell their FSD for a profit, and aren't out-competed by e.g. Waymo. Maybe Tesla does make full self driving a reality, but only after Waymo has licensed a better version of self driving to Toyota who sell millions of automated cars before Tesla
- Ekaros 3y agoAlso, when third or fourth player enters the market. Would FSD not be commodity tech? Just buy a license and then every automaker will have it. At that point it is race to bottom, any self-driving car likely only making small margin over lifetime...
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y agoMercedes-Benz is actually in some ways the leader: "first automaker to receive government approval in the US for a Level 3 driving feature. " https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-pilot-level-3-approved-nevada https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-p... But yes _if_ it's possible and inevitable then it will also soon be a commodity.
- iknowstuff 3y agoNo. They’re not. How people keep falling for this bullshit is beyond me https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/where_are_all_the_youtube_videos_from_mercedes/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...
- TheAlchemist 3y agoNot denying your point, but the people who drive those Mercedes, are not exactly the same people as the ones buying Teslas and posting their successful rides all over the place.
- iknowstuff 3y agoYes of course. Not a single fan of self driving among buyers and nobody decided to rent one for lulz and/or youtube clout. Please.
- TheAlchemist 3y agoWell, the arguments against goes the same way - if the system was no good, you can be sure that Tesla promoters would have posted 100s of videos of it already. The fact that they didn't, tells me it's not that bad.
- iknowstuff 3y agoThats a WILD derivative you came up with lol I salute your perseverance sir
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y agoI do not think that the argument "If the Mercedes-Benz system is so good, then where are all the youtube videos?" is a stronger argument than "If the Tesla system is so good, then where is all the regulatory approval and the full legal liability?" The latter seems much harder to game, to me. Also, since you've put the goalposts here, I just looked for these videos and other reviews of the MB-system. What do you know, they do exist.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y agoYou think all the Tesla videos are gamed?
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y agoI don't think your question shows understanding of what I wrote, or good faith.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y agoThe point is: The videos of Tesla's FSD are pretty good evidence of their progress. MB being allowed to keep the lane in certain situations is not much evidence of them progressing towards FSD.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y agoBut not in the same category as regulatory approval and full legal liability. IDK, this is pretty much what I said above already, just in slightly different words. But whatever, you put your full trust and faith in youtube instead if you want.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y agoVideos of cars handling complex situations are a much better indicator of progress than regulatory approval to do very simple things.
- iknowstuff 3y agoHow would Waymo with their sensors bolted onto vehicles they gotta purchase and modify (currently costing them over 200k) outcompete Tesla’s extremely lean manufacturing prowess where they make entire vehicles with all the hardware needed for $20-30k?
- dbt00 3y agoBecause the sensor package isn’t good enough or else they’d be much closer to Waymo’s capabilities.
- iknowstuff 3y ago1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD 2) says who? They seem quite close in my view. Certainly beyond ehere waymo was when they started test rides with safety drivers in Phoenix https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414
- shawabawa3 3y ago> 1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD I'm talking about the scenario where Waymo achieves full self driving at a cheaper per vehicle cost than Tesla (once their self-driving is good enough they will pivot to reducing the sensor costs)