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Only one (dismissive) side note about self-driving in the article. I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the nex

Only one (dismissive) side note about self-driving in the article. I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. Self-driving will automate billions of daily man hours. Capturing even just a very small fraction of that value results in enough earnings to justify Tesla's current market cap. Even if you have to discount the earnings for another ten years, in case it takes so long to start selling FSD software. Talking rationally about FSD always results in reflexive downvoting here on HN. Which I take as a sign, that the thinking about Tesla's future is muddied by emotions among many people. Maybe because people can't imagine fundamental change and also fear change.

canadianfella 3y ago
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shawabawa3 3y ago
> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. You haven't heard a solid argument against me personally achieving full self-driving either, but that doesn't make it realistic You are also assuming they are able to sell their FSD for a profit, and aren't out-competed by e.g. Waymo. Maybe Tesla does make full self driving a reality, but only after Waymo has licensed a better version of self driving to Toyota who sell millions of automated cars before Tesla
- Ekaros 3y ago
  Also, when third or fourth player enters the market. Would FSD not be commodity tech? Just buy a license and then every automaker will have it. At that point it is race to bottom, any self-driving car likely only making small margin over lifetime...
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  Mercedes-Benz is actually in some ways the leader: "first automaker to receive government approval in the US for a Level 3 driving feature. " https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-pilot-level-3-approved-nevada https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-p... But yes _if_ it's possible and inevitable then it will also soon be a commodity.
  - iknowstuff 3y ago
    No. They’re not. How people keep falling for this bullshit is beyond me https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/where_are_all_the_youtube_videos_from_mercedes/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...
    - TheAlchemist 3y ago
      Not denying your point, but the people who drive those Mercedes, are not exactly the same people as the ones buying Teslas and posting their successful rides all over the place.
      - iknowstuff 3y ago
        Yes of course. Not a single fan of self driving among buyers and nobody decided to rent one for lulz and/or youtube clout. Please.
        TheAlchemist 3y ago
        Well, the arguments against goes the same way - if the system was no good, you can be sure that Tesla promoters would have posted 100s of videos of it already. The fact that they didn't, tells me it's not that bad.
        iknowstuff 3y ago
        Thats a WILD derivative you came up with lol I salute your perseverance sir
    - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
      I do not think that the argument "If the Mercedes-Benz system is so good, then where are all the youtube videos?" is a stronger argument than "If the Tesla system is so good, then where is all the regulatory approval and the full legal liability?" The latter seems much harder to game, to me. Also, since you've put the goalposts here, I just looked for these videos and other reviews of the MB-system. What do you know, they do exist.
- iknowstuff 3y ago
  How would Waymo with their sensors bolted onto vehicles they gotta purchase and modify (currently costing them over 200k) outcompete Tesla’s extremely lean manufacturing prowess where they make entire vehicles with all the hardware needed for $20-30k?
  - dbt00 3y ago
    Because the sensor package isn’t good enough or else they’d be much closer to Waymo’s capabilities.
    - iknowstuff 3y ago
      1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD 2) says who? They seem quite close in my view. Certainly beyond ehere waymo was when they started test rides with safety drivers in Phoenix https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414
      - shawabawa3 3y ago
        > 1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD I'm talking about the scenario where Waymo achieves full self driving at a cheaper per vehicle cost than Tesla (once their self-driving is good enough they will pivot to reducing the sensor costs)
vertnerd 3y ago
When the CEO declared that FSD was a "solved problem" EIGHT years ago, then there is good reason to doubt it will be solved in another ten. People who bought cars eight years ago and paid a premium for the promise that their car would have FSD basically lit thousands of dollars on fire because their car is approaching end-of-life, and it still can't drive itself.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  There was a divide between people who thought computers would soon beat humans in chess and people who did not believe that. Computers made only small progress for many years. That's the nature of technological progress. You know that it will take place. But you can't predict very well when. Nowadays, no human even stands a chance in playing chess against a computer.
  - TomSwirly 3y ago
    But chess is a game of complete information, and one where the entire state can be perfectly and unambiguously represented in less than 64 bytes.
monooso 3y ago
I'm not sure I follow your logic. Let's assume that you're correct: Tesla achieves FSD in the next decade, and it automates billions of daily man hours. That's only really relevant to Tesla's current market cap if you also assume that other car makers don't achieve FSD in the next decade. If everyone has FSD, then in terms of relative company value it's the same as no one having it; it's just another feature, like A/C or cruise control.
- iknowstuff 3y ago
  Other automakers still have software literally worse than a 2013 Model S. They’re still the blackberries of a newly iPhone automotive world. They can not compete with Tesla’s fleet data, OTA updates and widely deployed uniform self driving hardware. Mobileye provides basic ADAS to automakers but they’re hella behind FSD12 and don’t have the kind of deployment capabilities Tesla has.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  Being among the best usually means you can stay in there because you can reinvest your earnings into becoming even better. Google still makes tens of billions of dollars from search every quarter. The revenue is actually still growing.
- kjksf 3y ago
  If self-driving works it's inevitable that the market will transform from mostly selling cars to mostly providing robotaxi service. Robotaxi service has "winner takes most" dynamics, just like regular human-taxi service. Just look at how stable Uber and Lyft marketshare was over the years. Imagine company X drops 10 thousand robotaxis in San Francisco area. Anyone who cares to can get a taxi for half the price (or less) of regular taxi. Company Y develops self-driving technology 6 months later. There's just no way for company Y to re-take significant market share in San Francisco if their costs are similar to company X. They can drop 10 thousand cars but most San Franciscan who want such service already have app for service X installed and a habit of using it. Company Y might decide on (expensive) marketing campaign or price war but company X can do that as well. Company X can finance price war from profit but company Y must borrow. And there's only so much you can borrow. In US we saw this with Uber vs Lyft vs everyone else. Early market share of Uber proved to be bullet proof regardless of what Lyft tried to do. In China Uber was in a trench price warfare with Didi and when they didn't see a way to win, they decided to loose (and sold their business to Didi). So the winner of robotaxi market will be the first company that has a working self-driving software AND can produce millions of cars per year to capture the market.
sgift 3y ago
Why Tesla? Why not Mercedes, who have shown real self-driving (e.g. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/future-driving-hands-off-eyes-off-mercedes-benz/story?id=103681808 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/future-driving-hands-off-eye...) in specific environments, unlike FSD, which cannot self-drive? Or Waymo with their self-driving taxis? Being the first at claiming you are able to (or will be able to) do something doesn't make you a relevant contender in a space.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  All I see in that highly edited video is a car staying in lane and making a lane change. While there are many long unedited videos from Tesla owners in which the car does way more.
  - sgift 3y ago
    I didn't link a video, I linked an article.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    If Tesla’s cars are more capable, why doesn’t Tesla market them as Level 3?
    - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
      That's like asking a startup founder "If you are so good at business, why are you earning less than me as an employee?". The path to complex, high value outcomes is different than the path to simple, low value outcomes.
    - iknowstuff 3y ago
      No need. A 1 minute google makes it extremely obvious which one is more capable.
- iknowstuff 3y ago
  Fake ass PR fluff and you fell for it. https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/where_are_all_the_youtube_videos_from_mercedes/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...
VelesDude 3y ago
The only argument I have is, well not so much an argument, but more an observation of a fundamental. Will we be able to get enough compute power without using too much power into a car to do the task? A few years back I would have said "No", but progress is still stumbling along and I am now in the maybe pile. If we can get the compute power, I cannot see a reason why it cannot happen but it might still be longer than 10 years away. I think the issue with FSD and Tesla is just how many bold claims from Musk have not come to pass, it is a boy who cried wolf situation. It is my usual criticism is Musk and most of the companies he runs. They are awesome companies in what they have actually done. Anyone would be proud of even half the things Telsa or Space X have done. So why does he always how to go the snake oil sales man route and way over promise? It kind of drags down the excitement for these things.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  I'm not talking about excitement. I'm talking about valuation. Tesla is the market leader in a market that will have room for multiple trillion dollar companies.
ZiiS 3y ago
Why would Tesla be the only one with FSD, they are currently behind in abilities compared to (currently hideously expensive) models form tradional manufacturers.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  That's why I mentioned that "Capturing even just a very small fraction" is enough. There is room for multiple trillion dollar companies in this space.
  - surgical_fire 3y ago
    And yet, no other company that is also working on self-driving technology has such a valuation. Something in your rationale does not add up.
    - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
      Which other company has as good FSD as Tesla?
      - surgical_fire 3y ago
        "as good as" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. No company on this area have reliable FSD.
- iknowstuff 3y ago
  That’s a hilariously ignorant statement. Please do show me anything remotely similar to this from a traditional manufacturer: https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 Hint: yea the headlines you saw were misleading
dbt00 3y ago
I’ve used their FSD package for 4+ years. I don’t trust them to deliver level 2 much less 4 or 5.
supermatt 3y ago
> Talking rationally about FSD always results in reflexive downvoting here on HN. Its hardly a reflexive downvote when you say you haven't heard any solid arguments, when musk has been promising it "next year" every year since 2014 (i.e. the last 10 years). What solid argument do YOU have that the next 10 years will be any different?
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  The progress. Tesla's FSD, which is very publicly documented, is steadily getting better. There is no sign that the effect of throwing more compute and data at it will slow down.
TomSwirly 3y ago
> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. You've already asked the same question a few times. Here's what I posted the last time you did (you didn't respond): Years of deliberate false statements by Tesla about their self-driving capacity should make any rational person very skeptical of their future claims. Having a CEO who is obsessed with posting far-right-wing political statements on Xitter over managing his actual businesses is also a red flag. What rational manager goes out of their way to alienate at least half of their potential customers? I am firmly in Tesla's target audience, but under no circumstances would I buy one, if only to avoid the social embarrassment of being associated with this pathologically mendacious malignant narcissist.
- ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
  Tesla is progressing along a path of more compute and data resulting in better FSD behavior. There is no sign that this progress is slowing down. I don't see how your points change that progress. It will continue independent of what Musk claims or what political stance he takes.

canadianfella 3y ago

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shawabawa3 3y ago

> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. You haven't heard a solid argument against me personally achieving full self-driving either, but that doesn't make it realistic You are also assuming they are able to sell their FSD for a profit, and aren't out-competed by e.g. Waymo. Maybe Tesla does make full self driving a reality, but only after Waymo has licensed a better version of self driving to Toyota who sell millions of automated cars before Tesla

Ekaros 3y ago
Also, when third or fourth player enters the market. Would FSD not be commodity tech? Just buy a license and then every automaker will have it. At that point it is race to bottom, any self-driving car likely only making small margin over lifetime...
SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
Mercedes-Benz is actually in some ways the leader: "first automaker to receive government approval in the US for a Level 3 driving feature. " https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-pilot-level-3-approved-nevada https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-p... But yes _if_ it's possible and inevitable then it will also soon be a commodity.
- iknowstuff 3y ago
  No. They’re not. How people keep falling for this bullshit is beyond me https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/where_are_all_the_youtube_videos_from_mercedes/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...
  - TheAlchemist 3y ago
    Not denying your point, but the people who drive those Mercedes, are not exactly the same people as the ones buying Teslas and posting their successful rides all over the place.
    - iknowstuff 3y ago
      Yes of course. Not a single fan of self driving among buyers and nobody decided to rent one for lulz and/or youtube clout. Please.
      - TheAlchemist 3y ago
        Well, the arguments against goes the same way - if the system was no good, you can be sure that Tesla promoters would have posted 100s of videos of it already. The fact that they didn't, tells me it's not that bad.
        iknowstuff 3y ago
        Thats a WILD derivative you came up with lol I salute your perseverance sir
  - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
    I do not think that the argument "If the Mercedes-Benz system is so good, then where are all the youtube videos?" is a stronger argument than "If the Tesla system is so good, then where is all the regulatory approval and the full legal liability?" The latter seems much harder to game, to me. Also, since you've put the goalposts here, I just looked for these videos and other reviews of the MB-system. What do you know, they do exist.
iknowstuff 3y ago
How would Waymo with their sensors bolted onto vehicles they gotta purchase and modify (currently costing them over 200k) outcompete Tesla’s extremely lean manufacturing prowess where they make entire vehicles with all the hardware needed for $20-30k?
- dbt00 3y ago
  Because the sensor package isn’t good enough or else they’d be much closer to Waymo’s capabilities.
  - iknowstuff 3y ago
    1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD 2) says who? They seem quite close in my view. Certainly beyond ehere waymo was when they started test rides with safety drivers in Phoenix https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414
    - shawabawa3 3y ago
      > 1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD I'm talking about the scenario where Waymo achieves full self driving at a cheaper per vehicle cost than Tesla (once their self-driving is good enough they will pivot to reducing the sensor costs)

vertnerd 3y ago

When the CEO declared that FSD was a "solved problem" EIGHT years ago, then there is good reason to doubt it will be solved in another ten. People who bought cars eight years ago and paid a premium for the promise that their car would have FSD basically lit thousands of dollars on fire because their car is approaching end-of-life, and it still can't drive itself.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
There was a divide between people who thought computers would soon beat humans in chess and people who did not believe that. Computers made only small progress for many years. That's the nature of technological progress. You know that it will take place. But you can't predict very well when. Nowadays, no human even stands a chance in playing chess against a computer.
- TomSwirly 3y ago
  But chess is a game of complete information, and one where the entire state can be perfectly and unambiguously represented in less than 64 bytes.

monooso 3y ago

I'm not sure I follow your logic. Let's assume that you're correct: Tesla achieves FSD in the next decade, and it automates billions of daily man hours. That's only really relevant to Tesla's current market cap if you also assume that other car makers don't achieve FSD in the next decade. If everyone has FSD, then in terms of relative company value it's the same as no one having it; it's just another feature, like A/C or cruise control.

iknowstuff 3y ago
Other automakers still have software literally worse than a 2013 Model S. They’re still the blackberries of a newly iPhone automotive world. They can not compete with Tesla’s fleet data, OTA updates and widely deployed uniform self driving hardware. Mobileye provides basic ADAS to automakers but they’re hella behind FSD12 and don’t have the kind of deployment capabilities Tesla has.
ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
Being among the best usually means you can stay in there because you can reinvest your earnings into becoming even better. Google still makes tens of billions of dollars from search every quarter. The revenue is actually still growing.
kjksf 3y ago
If self-driving works it's inevitable that the market will transform from mostly selling cars to mostly providing robotaxi service. Robotaxi service has "winner takes most" dynamics, just like regular human-taxi service. Just look at how stable Uber and Lyft marketshare was over the years. Imagine company X drops 10 thousand robotaxis in San Francisco area. Anyone who cares to can get a taxi for half the price (or less) of regular taxi. Company Y develops self-driving technology 6 months later. There's just no way for company Y to re-take significant market share in San Francisco if their costs are similar to company X. They can drop 10 thousand cars but most San Franciscan who want such service already have app for service X installed and a habit of using it. Company Y might decide on (expensive) marketing campaign or price war but company X can do that as well. Company X can finance price war from profit but company Y must borrow. And there's only so much you can borrow. In US we saw this with Uber vs Lyft vs everyone else. Early market share of Uber proved to be bullet proof regardless of what Lyft tried to do. In China Uber was in a trench price warfare with Didi and when they didn't see a way to win, they decided to loose (and sold their business to Didi). So the winner of robotaxi market will be the first company that has a working self-driving software AND can produce millions of cars per year to capture the market.

sgift 3y ago

Why Tesla? Why not Mercedes, who have shown real self-driving (e.g. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/future-driving-hands-off-eyes-off-mercedes-benz/story?id=103681808 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/future-driving-hands-off-eye...) in specific environments, unlike FSD, which cannot self-drive? Or Waymo with their self-driving taxis? Being the first at claiming you are able to (or will be able to) do something doesn't make you a relevant contender in a space.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
All I see in that highly edited video is a car staying in lane and making a lane change. While there are many long unedited videos from Tesla owners in which the car does way more.
- sgift 3y ago
  I didn't link a video, I linked an article.
- adrianN 3y ago
  If Tesla’s cars are more capable, why doesn’t Tesla market them as Level 3?
  - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
    That's like asking a startup founder "If you are so good at business, why are you earning less than me as an employee?". The path to complex, high value outcomes is different than the path to simple, low value outcomes.
  - iknowstuff 3y ago
    No need. A 1 minute google makes it extremely obvious which one is more capable.
iknowstuff 3y ago
Fake ass PR fluff and you fell for it. https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/where_are_all_the_youtube_videos_from_mercedes/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...

VelesDude 3y ago

The only argument I have is, well not so much an argument, but more an observation of a fundamental. Will we be able to get enough compute power without using too much power into a car to do the task? A few years back I would have said "No", but progress is still stumbling along and I am now in the maybe pile. If we can get the compute power, I cannot see a reason why it cannot happen but it might still be longer than 10 years away. I think the issue with FSD and Tesla is just how many bold claims from Musk have not come to pass, it is a boy who cried wolf situation. It is my usual criticism is Musk and most of the companies he runs. They are awesome companies in what they have actually done. Anyone would be proud of even half the things Telsa or Space X have done. So why does he always how to go the snake oil sales man route and way over promise? It kind of drags down the excitement for these things.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
I'm not talking about excitement. I'm talking about valuation. Tesla is the market leader in a market that will have room for multiple trillion dollar companies.

ZiiS 3y ago

Why would Tesla be the only one with FSD, they are currently behind in abilities compared to (currently hideously expensive) models form tradional manufacturers.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
That's why I mentioned that "Capturing even just a very small fraction" is enough. There is room for multiple trillion dollar companies in this space.
- surgical_fire 3y ago
  And yet, no other company that is also working on self-driving technology has such a valuation. Something in your rationale does not add up.
  - ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
    Which other company has as good FSD as Tesla?
    - surgical_fire 3y ago
      "as good as" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. No company on this area have reliable FSD.
iknowstuff 3y ago
That’s a hilariously ignorant statement. Please do show me anything remotely similar to this from a traditional manufacturer: https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414 Hint: yea the headlines you saw were misleading

dbt00 3y ago

I’ve used their FSD package for 4+ years. I don’t trust them to deliver level 2 much less 4 or 5.

supermatt 3y ago

> Talking rationally about FSD always results in reflexive downvoting here on HN. Its hardly a reflexive downvote when you say you haven't heard any solid arguments, when musk has been promising it "next year" every year since 2014 (i.e. the last 10 years). What solid argument do YOU have that the next 10 years will be any different?

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
The progress. Tesla's FSD, which is very publicly documented, is steadily getting better. There is no sign that the effect of throwing more compute and data at it will slow down.

TomSwirly 3y ago

> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years. You've already asked the same question a few times. Here's what I posted the last time you did (you didn't respond): Years of deliberate false statements by Tesla about their self-driving capacity should make any rational person very skeptical of their future claims. Having a CEO who is obsessed with posting far-right-wing political statements on Xitter over managing his actual businesses is also a red flag. What rational manager goes out of their way to alienate at least half of their potential customers? I am firmly in Tesla's target audience, but under no circumstances would I buy one, if only to avoid the social embarrassment of being associated with this pathologically mendacious malignant narcissist.

ArtTimeInvestor 3y ago
Tesla is progressing along a path of more compute and data resulting in better FSD behavior. There is no sign that this progress is slowing down. I don't see how your points change that progress. It will continue independent of what Musk claims or what political stance he takes.