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America's economy has escaped a hard landing
- kfarr 3y agoSounds like a perfect time to handle impending commercial real estate crisis!
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- tenlp 3y ago"But there are still pitfalls ahead"
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- Der_Einzige 3y agoI agree strongly with Biden when he characterized the recovered American economy as "the greatest story never told". The reality is that the US economy is very strong, and has been for quite some time now. We all just don't like to admit it.
- HarryHirsch 3y agoIf the economy is that strong, why are housing prices outrageously high on either coast, where the jobs are? To paraphrase Jesus, it's not about Man serving the Economy, it's about the Economy serving Man.
- laidoffamazon 3y agoJobs are everywhere in this country, there's a reason why the unemployment rate is so low!
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- johnnyanmac 3y agoCare to elaborate on this line of thinking? What jobs and where?
- HarryHirsch 3y agoDude is saying that someone who is works for 1h in a week is not included in the U-3 statistics. The wife is reviewing job applications for a teaching position at her institution. There are people applying who did decent work in the past and are now writing assignments for study.com. That's some serious underemployment visible there.
- nradov 3y agoIs the issue underemployment or elite overproduction?
- HarryHirsch 3y agoIt's lack of industrial policy, really, the fact that these people did good science until outsourcing started proves it. It's not cases of "got useless PhD at university no one ever heard of".
- kemotep 3y agoThese people are counted in the U6 figures. U3 is only people without a job who have been looking in the past 12 months and haven’t found a job.
- laidoffamazon 3y agoUnderemployment historically low right now, your anecdotes are meaningless against the real data.
- nradov 3y agoA strong economy tends to cause higher housing prices. When people have more money then they naturally tend to spend a lot of that on upgrading their living arrangements. Immigration is also a factor. I'm not trying to start an argument about immigration but the de facto open borders policy has brought in millions more people. That must have an effect, particularly at the lower end of the market.
- HarryHirsch 3y agoA strong economy tends to cause higher housing prices A look at the data will tell you that housing construction does not meet demand since in the mid-1980's (!): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST. It's now obvious to anyone that the policy failure has caught up with the nation. The problem is seriously compounded by the depopulation of rural areas and the fact that current new construction is not entry-level housing and never will be. You can't subdivide an exurban mansion into four apartments.
- laidoffamazon 3y agoAbsolutely, poor media coverage has lead to poor sentiment despite a consistently good economic recovery since gas prices went down in 2022.
- Der_Einzige 3y agoNot sure why you're being downvoted.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago>the US economy is very strong, and has been for quite some time now. We all just don't like to admit it. What should "a strong US economy" mean to the common middle class worker? I think that's the issue. Unemployment is low, but several sectors are finding it harder to find work than ever, with companies slashing roles in real time. Where are these roles, what kind of roles are they (part time, gig?), and can people actually live off of these roles? if unemployment is zero and everyone is flipping burgers, that doesn't seem to be an actual win for the working class.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago> if unemployment is zero and everyone is flipping burgers, that doesn't seem to be an actual win for the working class. That is nowhere near reality, so the supposition is a waste of time. Plenty of work is highly in demand, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, driving, etc.
- harimau777 3y agoI think that the question is whether the high demand work is available (e.g. most people aren't electricians) and whether it allows for a good quality of life.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago>Plenty of work is highly in demand Sure, so is tech. The point is more that are these "high demand" work hiring? Also, nit: I don't recall "driving" ever particularly being in high demand. Rideshare gig's are the exact kinds of roles I fear the government is counting as "employed".
- kemotep 3y agoYou need to be looking at the U6 figures to get all marginally attached to workforce people such as those who are under employed who want more work. Someone working less than 35 hours a week for a ride share app but wanting more hours or even working more than 35 hours and wanting a better job would count in the U6 figure.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoI think it’s both (great economy, poor sentiment). The economy is strong because unemployment is low. Unemployment is low because of a tight labor market due to structural demographics. But housing is expensive because of housing shortages, which will take years, if not decades, of building to resolve. Credit is expensive making buying durable goods expensive (autos, specifically). Healthcare is…you know. We’re closer to “living within our means” (versus cheap credit inflating consumer and business spend) from an equilibrium perspective, but the ZIRP party is over, happiness is reality minus expectations, and everyone is disappointed in what reality looks like. You might not lose your job, but you’re still chained to a treadmill with no relief in sight. Hence, sentiment.
- jayd16 3y agoThe economy is strong but people aren't feeling it because wages haven't caught up to inflation. It's a soft landing, which is great news, but hard to get excited.
- Phiwise_ 3y ago[flagged]
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- po 3y ago> Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden * Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook Oct 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-... I wish that the American media had a bit of accountability for their reporting.
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- nothercastle 3y agoInflation always feels amazing when it starts. The problem is that once it gets going it’s really hard to get it to stop
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- lagt_t 3y agoHousing market is still a shitshow, and greedflation is still unchecked by the "invisible hand of the free market".
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- nradov 3y agoI am skeptical whether "greedflation" is a real phenomenon. Corporations were no less greedy a few years ago. Recent high inflation rates are more likely connected to monetary policy.
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- jmcgough 3y agoCorporations have record profits right now. When a handful raised prices, every other company raised prices in response, well above what they needed to pay for increased costs. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greedflation-caused-more-half-last-100000899.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greedflation-caused-more-half...
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- nradov 3y agoCosts have almost nothing to do with pricing. Companies will charge as much as they can. Always have, always will.
- toomuchtodo 3y agohttps://www.ft.com/content/6cf2b93a-01fa-4f79-98bb-037ee61eda09 https://www.ft.com/content/6cf2b93a-01fa-4f79-98bb-037ee61ed... | https://archive.today/0uFTV https://archive.today/0uFTV https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/07/greedflation-corporate-profiteering-boosted-global-prices-study https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/07/greedflatio...
- cornflake23 3y agoWell, yes and no. The wealthy have not experienced a hard landing, and at the same time, the wealth inequality has never been greater. An entire generation now has no prospects of buying a house, even renting is hard, etc.
- drewcoo 3y ago"The economy" is solely a measure of how rich people are doing financially. Any other concerns aren't captured there no matter how important we keep saying they are. I think we ought to track a "bloody revolution index" but that would probably just give people ideas.
- fuzzfactor 3y agoWhich is exactly why the things that are tracked are the things that are. To keep from giving people ideas. I mentioned this not long ago, but by far most people don't know when GDP began to be calculated, plus how & why it got to be that way then, and the way it is now.
- Phiwise_ 3y agoI don't know where you got this impression from, but that's not what the official data says. In relative terms, the bottom 50% hold a larger share of the total net worth than they have since 2003 (ignoring the obviously temporary Cantillon spike), which is over 5 times as much as they did in 2011, and finally comfortably above 50% of their record in 1993 (since 1990) [1]. In absolute terms, they hold twice as many real dollars as they did in 1990 [2], which they got to through the largest relative spike and smallest relative fall of all the tracked tranches. Meanwhile the relative wealth of the two rich segments of 99-100 and 90-99 have been flat for a decade and hardest-landed slightly above the all time low in 1996 [3]. It's truly remarkable to me that people don't remember just how bad things used to be. It's not even been eighteen years; what's the excuse for such short institutional memory? I even doubled the standard graph height and it still pretty much disappears both absolutely and relatively. Or perhaps the talking points are just a little under eighteen years out of date? In that case, there's some good news on the horizon: The yield curve has risen dangerously close to un-inverted [0], which has precipitated or tracked with every recession since the mid 50s, and will probably rise more soon as the market prices back out Powell's flinch in the face of thirty-five months of inflation over 3%; the poor usually take it on the chin the hardest during malinvestment blowups as they scramble to underbid each other for the remaining jobs that didn't fold under the weight of unprofitable compassion, so we can expect the reality of poverty to give wealth inequality rhetoric a comeback. Give it two good years and we can all join Alan Kay in complaining about "That [second] time the bankers stole all our money" once again when the data refresh our memories on just how bad they can get. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317951 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317951 [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317969 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317969 [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317984 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1317984 [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
- epicureanideal 3y ago[flagged]
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- pvg 3y agohttps://archive.is/mr9lV https://archive.is/mr9lV
- smitty1e 3y agoStanding by for the reckoning when the Treasury holds a T-Bill auction to a chorus of crickets.
- TibbityFlanders 3y ago[dead]