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A friend of mine who lives in Queensland (Sunshine Coast) was talking about a recent spell of 32° and 100% humidity and how oppressive it was. My understanding

A friend of mine who lives in Queensland (Sunshine Coast) was talking about a recent spell of 32° and 100% humidity and how oppressive it was. My understanding is that such weather is not survivable long term [1] without air conditioning. A power failure would be disastrous. [1] https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/humans-cant-endure-temperatures-and-humidities-high-previously-thought/ https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/humans-cant-endure-t...

lstodd 3y ago
Try living in Goa in the monsoon season. Or even rewatch Apocalypse Now or basically any Vietnam war movie. I assure you, even 36C/100% is survivable.
- bowsamic 3y ago
  Survivable for many, but still dangerous. 36C is at the limit though. 35C is already dangerous
- pcthrowaway 3y ago
  The science says otherwise, but specific populations are likely better adapted to higher temperatures than the average. An extended period of 36C/100% is going to pose serious danger for most people
  - vouaobrasil 3y ago
    Yes that is true. I am very good at tolerating very high heat. But like you said, past the bulb temperature nothing can save you if you don't have something colder to exchang heat with.
- llamaimperative 3y ago
  The average daily high for Goa in July is like 30C. No, 36C at 100% for an extended period (6-8 hours) is extremely, extremely lethal. Could some people survive it? Probably. But yeah, exaggerating how hot Goa is to dismiss the problem is sort of exactly the problem.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- coldtea 3y ago
  >I assure you, even 36C/100% is survivable Survivable is a pretty low bar. Also, "survivable but kills babies, the elderly, and the sick in much greater numbers than they die today" doesn't have the same shine as survivable for everybody...
- rokkamokka 3y ago
  It is a guaranteed death if continued for more than a brief while. With evaporative cooling not functioning and the temperature too high, you have no effective way to cool down. Any burning of calories, even without exertion, will heat you up.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  People need sometime to build tolerance to a given temperature. Someone who lives in Manaus or Belem do Para, Brazilian Amazonia would have a hard time getting used even to daily averages around 40F, and vice-versa.
  - ethanbond 3y ago
    No, the temperature being described here is extremely lethal within hours even to heat-adapted people.
    - brabel 3y ago
      While you're correct, I suppose that people who live in already warm areas with high humidity to tend to build more resistance, and would be the "last to die" compared to people from, say, Europe.
      - ethanbond 3y ago
        Well no because people in already warm humid areas will be the first to experience this sort of heat, plus they tend not to have widespread air conditioning, plus they tend not to have the wealth necessary to fix the problem of no widespread air conditioning. The last to die will be the people who are most harmful to the environment on a per-capita basis. Before then, you’ll have socioeconomic disruption in warm countries, creating masses of people fleeing to cooler climates, creating political openings for xenophobes and unsavory characters throughout the western world who will take it as a key goal to preserve our right to pollute, now return to step 1, cycle repeats and amplifies.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > people who live in already warm areas with high humidity to tend to build more resistance There is no resistance to chemistry. Your proteins stop folding properly above a certain temperature. Others irreversibly change shape, like an egg’s albumen solidifying. Your body expends extraordinary effort to keep its temperature in a narrow range, one far from the outside temperature, for good reason.
throwaway290 3y ago
You say long term... I have walked 10 minutes or so in ~35/90, closer to the end of that was not certain if I will pass out on the street at any time. The body is unable to sweat off. It's one thing in cloudy weather with wind and rain but in sunny clear weather it felt deadly
pcthrowaway 3y ago
Much of Queensland's population lives on the coast, so those who can tolerate the sun could at least seek some reprieve in the ocean. As long as cold water is running, people can also use tap water to cool themselves down, though it will turn into a swampy mess when none of it evaporates. Perhaps public shaded pools with a cool water source will become critical public infrastructure to help people survive heat waves if the electricity goes out. If it's above 32 degrees and 100% humidity at all hours though, it would be pretty miserable as you wouldn't have anywhere to sleep (unless you have a car with A/C, and masses running their cars overnight will just contribute that much more to the climate change)
- LilBytes 3y ago
  Brisbane checking in. Wish we were near the coast. :(
  - pcthrowaway 3y ago
    Is anywhere in the Brisbane area more than 45 minutes from a cold body of water suitable for swimming in? I don't think there are crocodiles near Brisbane.
    - LilBytes 3y ago
      No crocs near us. There's quite a lot of lakes for freshwater swimming and when the rain is right, rock pools. The sea is about 45 minutes away but only rock beaches. But we have the famous beaches of Sunshine Coast (Noosa) and Gold Coast (Tallebudgera amongst others) around 90 minutes away.
      - pcthrowaway 3y ago
        In the context of needing to cool down for survival reasons, during a heat wave + power outage + 100% humidity, I suppose it doesn't matter whether the beach you have access to is rocky or not.
defrost 3y ago
We had a run of five days at 45 C and near 50% humidity here in W.Australia last month - bit unpleasant. Later in the month the days that were 30 C and 90% humidity felt worse when working.
- cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago
  Unpleasant? Ken oath. It started to push the limits of my AC.
- nicbou 3y ago
  I've experienced 30-35 degrees at 70%-90% humidity while cycling. It's totally unlike 45 in a dry climate. The former makes you feel like the activity ceiling is much lower, and cooling down through natural means is much slower. Sweating just doesn't work that well. That was at a wet bulb temperature of ~28 degrees.
leoedin 3y ago
It is scary - but I suspect the headline temperatures/humidity aren't the only story. We can build passive structures to regulate peak temperatures - caves and windowless insulated boxes with high thermal mass, for instance. As long as the average temperatures (day and night) over a few days or a week are survivable, active cooling isn't strictly necessary.
- coldtea 3y ago
  >We can build passive structures to regulate peak temperatures - caves and windowless insulated boxes with high thermal mass, for instance. As long as the average temperatures (day and night) over a few days or a week are survivable, active cooling isn't strictly necessary. Survival is a consolation, but if we need to start living in caves and windowless insulated boxes, then those are not very reassuring news...
  - Gigachad 3y ago
    But we managed to deliver a lot of value to shareholders before then.
    - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
      Shareholders being about 100 billionaires
  - carlosjobim 3y ago
    Make a visit to one of the cold-as-hell regions of the world and take a look at how traditional houses look. Window sizes, wall thickness. Look at the energy usage needed to survive the climate. If people organise themselves, they can both survive and thrive in extreme conditions. Even just as isolated individuals. Regions with high humidity and high temperatures also have huge rivers and waterfalls for cooling, irrigation and hydroelectric power plants to run millions of AC Units and build AC factories.
    - coldtea 3y ago
sgu999 3y ago
This is the plot of the Ministry for the Future [0]. Power failure during a prolonged wet bulb temperature above 35°C, millions of dead. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future
- FrustratedMonky 3y ago
  Also. Termination Shock, Stephenson. In Texas there was AC failures, and people needed Earth Suits (like a space suit with air conditioning) to survive.
  - varelse 3y ago
    Ministry For The Future was far too optimistic. Termination Shock presents how late stage capitalism and the accelerationists would team up to make money on half-baked science to save the planet. The West will probably be fine but we're going to make Mao and Stalin look like amateur hour mass murderers when we finally save our own butts.
- netsharc 3y ago
  Is it a plot? It's an event that happens in chapter 1 and paints a "this is what will happen" scenario. The whole chapter is available here: https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-the-future/ https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-t...
  - throwanem 3y ago
    The term of art is "inciting incident," I believe.
  - FrustratedMonky 3y ago
    Kind of being pedantic about definition of "plot" or "plot point". Isn't this whole book about climate change? And the character experiences a climate 'event', that impacts the direction of the story? Changes their perspective? "There's a common misconception that a plot point is anything that happens in a story. In this way, people often confuse a plot point for a story beat. Story beats are the smallest units of storytelling, allowing you to break down a story into small parts without looking at individual paragraphs or sentences. A plot point, on the other hand, marks a major turning point in the plot. So a story beat and a plot point will overlap, but not every story beat is a plot. There are far more story beats than plot points in a given story." https://blog.reedsy.com/guide/plot/plot-point/ https://blog.reedsy.com/guide/plot/plot-point/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plot_point https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plot_point https://kindlepreneur.com/plot-point/ https://kindlepreneur.com/plot-point/
renegade-otter 3y ago
That's a typical summer night in NYC. We did not have AC one summer, it was VERY unpleasant. I couldn't sleep, but - probably not fatal if you chug tons of water.
- tapland 3y ago
  At that humidity level you can't cool by sweating. We've had days like that in southern Sweden, near the coast with very high humidity. I'm starting to go crazy over us not having ACs, and windows that are really hard to get working well with a portable ac. Retirement homes celebrate getting ice cream machines, but still lack AC and the deaths during summer are significantly higher =/
  - renegade-otter 3y ago
    Europe in general needs to get with the program. The States have AC'd everything - busses, elevators, train stations, etc. Ice coffee in Europe is not a thing! Ask for it and you will be looked at funny. And even the "cold" drinks from the fridge in a store are just below room temperature. I don't get it.
    - adonovan 3y ago
      There are historical reasons for it, including the (at least historically) milder climate, and much higher cost of energy. In many older buildings there are also space and architectural constraints. I expect these objections will fall away in future years as summer heat gets more intense. Those who can afford A/C will install what is often seen as a conspicuous luxury and energy-wasting convenience, and those who can't will envy rather than despise them, as the culture continues its shift towards individualism. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/08/europe-france-germany-air-conditioning-heat-wave-climate/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/08/europe-franc...
    - moi2388 3y ago
      What are you talking about? Literally every gas station sells chilled iced coffee. Just like all coffee shops and most supermarkets. And under EU law fresh food fridges must target 4C and not exceed 8C, only food pantries are allowed go to 18 degrees. I agree with the ACs, but then again in houses it usually wasn’t necessary until now. Most public spaces do have AC, and public transportation with AC are also quite common, at least in the developed parts of the EU
donatj 3y ago
I grew up poor and without AC in Minnesota where we regularly get spells of 100°F+ (37.7°C) at VERY high humidity thanks to all the lakes. It’s survivable, it’s absolutely not pleasant though and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Fans and wet rags help some. I used to fill a 2-liter bottle with cold water and hold it against my chest. A lot of sleepless nights. When we got a local second run $2 movie theater, it was a literal godsend.
- brazzy 3y ago
  The point is that at some sufficiently high humidity, fans and wet rags do not help any more, at all! Combine that with sufficiently high temperatures, and it's not survivable. And will kill people with weak circulatory systems (i.e. the elderly and babies) quite a bit earlier.
  - masklinn 3y ago
    It also causes long-term damage (e.g. loss of kidney function) to healthy individuals. This is an issue that’s been tracked for a decade in mesoamerican field workers.
  - wholinator2 3y ago
    Yes, the fan cannot cool. But have your ever experienced the cold water tap being cooler than the ambient air temperature? They mean that they soak a rag in cold water, from the tap, and then apply that to themselves. This will 100% help cool the person down. You could run a cold bath, take a cold shower, even drink the cold water (but not too much too cold!) If you have cold water, you can survive.
    - triceratops 3y ago
      That only works if the water pipelines are underground and all the above-ground plumbing is shaded. If the water heats up on its way to the faucet it's useless.
    - brazzy 3y ago
      That's a big "if" in rural areas of third world countries, though.
mr_person 3y ago
Can confirm. Its disgusting. I am also a grumpy fart right now because the night time temperature has not dropped below 20degrees since, like, November[1]. If I tried to aircon that like I do most of the day time, I would wake up a sinusy coughing mess... Sure, 30degrees and 90+ humidity is survivable, but only just. [1] https://7news.com.au/news/brisbane-set-to-break-record-of-days-when-temperature-stays-above-20c--c-13777783 https://7news.com.au/news/brisbane-set-to-break-record-of-da...
- bloomingeek 3y ago
  <Sure, 30degrees and 90+ humidity is survivable, but only just.> And how could you get any work done? I worked in the oilfields when I was in my early twenty's, if the temp was over 100F, less work got done because we didn't want to die. I knew men who got heat stroke, they were never the same again. I myself got heat exhaustion several times, it took a few days to recover. Our bodies can only take so much, no matter how tough you are, wet rags and frequent breaks don't always work.
  - sysadmindotfail 3y ago
    >And how could you get any work done? Drink (hopefully cold) water and cover up from the sun. I grew up doing manual labor in a climate like this. People adapt, but there are of course limits. Children die sometimes being pushed too hard in athletics, etc. The majority of people however simply put up with it.
  - rstuart4133 3y ago
    I also live in Brisbane, ie same area. Two examples of getting work done: 1. I was happing working in 36°C in November, but the temperature dropped to around 30°C after December and the humidity went up to near 100%. I got saturated in my own sweat on 50 meter walk to the work site. I worked outside for 1 hour stints, then retreated to aircon. 2. But not everyone could do that ... and in Brisbane, they died on the job. https://qnt.cfmeu.org/news/workers-walk-cross-river-rail-after-heat-related-injuries-and-fatality https://qnt.cfmeu.org/news/workers-walk-cross-river-rail-aft... I'm 64 and never head of seen of such a thing happening locally before. Remember, this is in Australia, a rich first world country, aircon everywhere, with some of the best medical resources on the planet (free). On the news they were tell us we are seeing higher sustained humidity that Singapore, with higher temperatures. The government weather bureau predicted 20mm of rain over one night, and we got 200mm. Their explanation is while they have over 100 years of data, they had never seen this much moisture in the air before and so their models were untrained. The Bureau said driver behind this is we get most of our moisture / rain fall from the Coral Sea, which is part of the Pacific. The El Nino on top of global warming has driven sea surface temperatures 1.5°C above normal. 1.5° - it sounds so small. What is terrifying is it is small. At the same time in Newfoundland the sea temperature was 8.5°C above normal. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/28/ocean-temperature-maps-heat-records/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/28/ocean-temp... I guess the only reason people are still alive there in the average temperature is lower.
jijijijij 3y ago
The thing to think about, is how poorly developed, rural places, without ACs or stable grids, are much more likely to experience heat waves with universally fatal wet-bulb temperatures. Places like parts of India or Bangladesh with high population densities, too. Further more, I think, we also need to consider how non-survivable conditions to humans, may play out for other animals we depend on. The cows, chicken, sheep and goats? All dead. But consider also the impact on ecosystems, when birds and predators may die in large quantities in a short time - these ecosystems may completely collapse. Great impact on food security in affected regions. Not to mention disease dynamics when pathogens experience body-like conditions outside the body, and all the decay and death around. I am not sure all plants would make it either, since they need evaporation of water from their leaves, too, to transport nutrients from the soil upwards - and with halted transport, may not be able to fight fungi and so on. Now, this threat may not come as a gradual trend, but may introduce itself as single (first) freak heat-wave killing hundred thousands of people all at once. A whole region may get the message their land is not habitable for humans anymore. Imagine the migration pressure as a consequence. I don't think a poor country could ever properly adapt to frequent non-survivable temperatures sustainably...
- hackerlight 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - codebolt 3y ago
    Or the hysteria was overblown, and we instead sabotaged an opportunity for many of the people living near the equator to become more prosperous.
    - hackerlight 3y ago
      Easy gamble to make when you don't live in a country with regular 33'c temperatures at 60% humidity. And if your gamble turns out wrong will you compensate the victims? Will you advocate for borders to be opened up as they have to flee their countries?
safety1st 3y ago
Millions of people already live in these conditions (temperature in the low 30s, constant high humidity) in the tropics so I am skeptical about that study. It sucks for me in those conditions but a lot of locals say they're used to it. The general strategy without AC is to minimize activity during the hottest part of the day and keep a fan on you.
- darkerside 3y ago
  With high enough heat, a fan will only make things worse, no?
  - bloomingeek 3y ago
    I can only reply with my experience, if you had access to water to put on your body in a hot area with a fan, you would get some evaporation. If there's no easy access to water, then shade, IMO, is the best option. Hot, blown air on a very hot day is almost painful.
  - bell-cot 3y ago
    If the wet bulb temp is above (say) 40C, definitely yes.
  - safety1st 3y ago
    I can only report what I see, which is that in many parts of the world including where I live, it's always in the 30s, humidity levels are high, a lot of people can't afford air con, and there are no mass heat deaths. If they don't have access to AC they run fans all the time, and they stay indoors or in the shade. In fact in the cold months where it dips under 30 the local news always runs a story or two about the (small) wave of cold deaths. (I think usually in parts of the country where it gets down to 15-20 at night) Today it was 35 in the afternoon and about 70% humidity. I went outside for a swim. There were probably over a million people in my city who were sitting outside all day because their jobs required it. It was a somewhat hot but otherwise completely ordinary day. If you said they're on the brink of heat death they'd say you're crazy. It may be that people who sit in air conditioned offices in cold countries are translating that one study into some hysteria. It may be they will have the "opportunity" to learn to live in a hot climate like the rest of us, rather than die by the millions.
osigurdson 3y ago
Interesting as large swaths of humanity would die if utilities (electricity, water, gas) shut down for long periods of time. I would have died at least twice this winter for example.
onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
Good thing the problem is as easily solved by going 6 ft underground, or getting in a cold bath. Patna India typically has weather like this for two months a year and probably a million people live there without A/C (just fine): https://weatherspark.com/y/111069/Average-Weather-in-Patna-India-Year-Round https://weatherspark.com/y/111069/Average-Weather-in-Patna-I...
richrichie 3y ago
32 deg C is a mild summer in many parts of the world and most of that world does not have 24/7 electricity, even from coal. Incidentally, pro tennis players descend in Melbourne during the peak of Australian summer and play best of 5 sets (men) in the heat where temperatures reach high forties (deg C) and even fifties.
- cromulent 3y ago
  Of course, high temperatures on their own are fine. The temperature is not the only factor, it is the humidity. Wet-bulb temperature is the key indicator.
tzs 3y ago
If you've got a well and your well water is always significantly below body temperature one thing that might be worth considering is installing a hand pump. You could then at least draw a bath and sit in the tub to remain cool. That works by contact with something colder than you. It does not rely on evaporation and so is not affected by high humidity.
hintymad 3y ago
> is that such weather is not survivable long term [1] without air conditioning I seriously doubt it. I grew up in an area that frequently hit 35C with close to 100% humidity, and I didn't even have an electronic fan before 9 years old. And multiple cities with 10s of millions people had the similar condition too. It was not pleasant but let me assure you, more people died of cold than heat, orders of magnitude more. In a poor country, or an Asian country more than 100 years ago, 10s of thousands of people in a single city would die in a snowy winter. Not having air conditioner? Seriously, that's a first-world problem.
seoulmetro 3y ago
I don't believe the Sunshine Coast ever reaches 100% humidity unless it's raining, which cools the region. The sun does a great job at making sure humidity is at least always below 80%. Also, those temperatures are very tolerable for most people, in most of Australia. It's just that they're uncomfortable.
jjav 3y ago
> 32° and 100% humidity > is not survivable long term 32C is only 89F, which isn't hot at all. Coming from the tropics where 90s(F) with very high humidity is common, I can't see how that is not survivable. I walked to school and back home in that weather every day and it wasn't a big deal. We never had air conditioning, too poor for that.

lstodd 3y ago

Try living in Goa in the monsoon season. Or even rewatch Apocalypse Now or basically any Vietnam war movie. I assure you, even 36C/100% is survivable.

bowsamic 3y ago
Survivable for many, but still dangerous. 36C is at the limit though. 35C is already dangerous
pcthrowaway 3y ago
The science says otherwise, but specific populations are likely better adapted to higher temperatures than the average. An extended period of 36C/100% is going to pose serious danger for most people
- vouaobrasil 3y ago
  Yes that is true. I am very good at tolerating very high heat. But like you said, past the bulb temperature nothing can save you if you don't have something colder to exchang heat with.
llamaimperative 3y ago
The average daily high for Goa in July is like 30C. No, 36C at 100% for an extended period (6-8 hours) is extremely, extremely lethal. Could some people survive it? Probably. But yeah, exaggerating how hot Goa is to dismiss the problem is sort of exactly the problem.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
coldtea 3y ago
>I assure you, even 36C/100% is survivable Survivable is a pretty low bar. Also, "survivable but kills babies, the elderly, and the sick in much greater numbers than they die today" doesn't have the same shine as survivable for everybody...
rokkamokka 3y ago
It is a guaranteed death if continued for more than a brief while. With evaporative cooling not functioning and the temperature too high, you have no effective way to cool down. Any burning of calories, even without exertion, will heat you up.
elzbardico 3y ago
People need sometime to build tolerance to a given temperature. Someone who lives in Manaus or Belem do Para, Brazilian Amazonia would have a hard time getting used even to daily averages around 40F, and vice-versa.
- ethanbond 3y ago
  No, the temperature being described here is extremely lethal within hours even to heat-adapted people.
  - brabel 3y ago
    While you're correct, I suppose that people who live in already warm areas with high humidity to tend to build more resistance, and would be the "last to die" compared to people from, say, Europe.
    - ethanbond 3y ago
      Well no because people in already warm humid areas will be the first to experience this sort of heat, plus they tend not to have widespread air conditioning, plus they tend not to have the wealth necessary to fix the problem of no widespread air conditioning. The last to die will be the people who are most harmful to the environment on a per-capita basis. Before then, you’ll have socioeconomic disruption in warm countries, creating masses of people fleeing to cooler climates, creating political openings for xenophobes and unsavory characters throughout the western world who will take it as a key goal to preserve our right to pollute, now return to step 1, cycle repeats and amplifies.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > people who live in already warm areas with high humidity to tend to build more resistance There is no resistance to chemistry. Your proteins stop folding properly above a certain temperature. Others irreversibly change shape, like an egg’s albumen solidifying. Your body expends extraordinary effort to keep its temperature in a narrow range, one far from the outside temperature, for good reason.

throwaway290 3y ago

You say long term... I have walked 10 minutes or so in ~35/90, closer to the end of that was not certain if I will pass out on the street at any time. The body is unable to sweat off. It's one thing in cloudy weather with wind and rain but in sunny clear weather it felt deadly

pcthrowaway 3y ago

Much of Queensland's population lives on the coast, so those who can tolerate the sun could at least seek some reprieve in the ocean. As long as cold water is running, people can also use tap water to cool themselves down, though it will turn into a swampy mess when none of it evaporates. Perhaps public shaded pools with a cool water source will become critical public infrastructure to help people survive heat waves if the electricity goes out. If it's above 32 degrees and 100% humidity at all hours though, it would be pretty miserable as you wouldn't have anywhere to sleep (unless you have a car with A/C, and masses running their cars overnight will just contribute that much more to the climate change)

LilBytes 3y ago
Brisbane checking in. Wish we were near the coast. :(
- pcthrowaway 3y ago
  Is anywhere in the Brisbane area more than 45 minutes from a cold body of water suitable for swimming in? I don't think there are crocodiles near Brisbane.
  - LilBytes 3y ago
    No crocs near us. There's quite a lot of lakes for freshwater swimming and when the rain is right, rock pools. The sea is about 45 minutes away but only rock beaches. But we have the famous beaches of Sunshine Coast (Noosa) and Gold Coast (Tallebudgera amongst others) around 90 minutes away.
    - pcthrowaway 3y ago
      In the context of needing to cool down for survival reasons, during a heat wave + power outage + 100% humidity, I suppose it doesn't matter whether the beach you have access to is rocky or not.

defrost 3y ago

We had a run of five days at 45 C and near 50% humidity here in W.Australia last month - bit unpleasant. Later in the month the days that were 30 C and 90% humidity felt worse when working.

cqqxo4zV46cp 3y ago
Unpleasant? Ken oath. It started to push the limits of my AC.
nicbou 3y ago
I've experienced 30-35 degrees at 70%-90% humidity while cycling. It's totally unlike 45 in a dry climate. The former makes you feel like the activity ceiling is much lower, and cooling down through natural means is much slower. Sweating just doesn't work that well. That was at a wet bulb temperature of ~28 degrees.

leoedin 3y ago

It is scary - but I suspect the headline temperatures/humidity aren't the only story. We can build passive structures to regulate peak temperatures - caves and windowless insulated boxes with high thermal mass, for instance. As long as the average temperatures (day and night) over a few days or a week are survivable, active cooling isn't strictly necessary.

coldtea 3y ago
>We can build passive structures to regulate peak temperatures - caves and windowless insulated boxes with high thermal mass, for instance. As long as the average temperatures (day and night) over a few days or a week are survivable, active cooling isn't strictly necessary. Survival is a consolation, but if we need to start living in caves and windowless insulated boxes, then those are not very reassuring news...
- Gigachad 3y ago
  But we managed to deliver a lot of value to shareholders before then.
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    Shareholders being about 100 billionaires
- carlosjobim 3y ago
  Make a visit to one of the cold-as-hell regions of the world and take a look at how traditional houses look. Window sizes, wall thickness. Look at the energy usage needed to survive the climate. If people organise themselves, they can both survive and thrive in extreme conditions. Even just as isolated individuals. Regions with high humidity and high temperatures also have huge rivers and waterfalls for cooling, irrigation and hydroelectric power plants to run millions of AC Units and build AC factories.
  - coldtea 3y ago

sgu999 3y ago

This is the plot of the Ministry for the Future [0]. Power failure during a prolonged wet bulb temperature above 35°C, millions of dead. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future

FrustratedMonky 3y ago
Also. Termination Shock, Stephenson. In Texas there was AC failures, and people needed Earth Suits (like a space suit with air conditioning) to survive.
- varelse 3y ago
  Ministry For The Future was far too optimistic. Termination Shock presents how late stage capitalism and the accelerationists would team up to make money on half-baked science to save the planet. The West will probably be fine but we're going to make Mao and Stalin look like amateur hour mass murderers when we finally save our own butts.
netsharc 3y ago
Is it a plot? It's an event that happens in chapter 1 and paints a "this is what will happen" scenario. The whole chapter is available here: https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-the-future/ https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-t...
- throwanem 3y ago
  The term of art is "inciting incident," I believe.
- FrustratedMonky 3y ago
  Kind of being pedantic about definition of "plot" or "plot point". Isn't this whole book about climate change? And the character experiences a climate 'event', that impacts the direction of the story? Changes their perspective? "There's a common misconception that a plot point is anything that happens in a story. In this way, people often confuse a plot point for a story beat. Story beats are the smallest units of storytelling, allowing you to break down a story into small parts without looking at individual paragraphs or sentences. A plot point, on the other hand, marks a major turning point in the plot. So a story beat and a plot point will overlap, but not every story beat is a plot. There are far more story beats than plot points in a given story." https://blog.reedsy.com/guide/plot/plot-point/ https://blog.reedsy.com/guide/plot/plot-point/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plot_point https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plot_point https://kindlepreneur.com/plot-point/ https://kindlepreneur.com/plot-point/

renegade-otter 3y ago

That's a typical summer night in NYC. We did not have AC one summer, it was VERY unpleasant. I couldn't sleep, but - probably not fatal if you chug tons of water.

tapland 3y ago
At that humidity level you can't cool by sweating. We've had days like that in southern Sweden, near the coast with very high humidity. I'm starting to go crazy over us not having ACs, and windows that are really hard to get working well with a portable ac. Retirement homes celebrate getting ice cream machines, but still lack AC and the deaths during summer are significantly higher =/
- renegade-otter 3y ago
  Europe in general needs to get with the program. The States have AC'd everything - busses, elevators, train stations, etc. Ice coffee in Europe is not a thing! Ask for it and you will be looked at funny. And even the "cold" drinks from the fridge in a store are just below room temperature. I don't get it.
  - adonovan 3y ago
    There are historical reasons for it, including the (at least historically) milder climate, and much higher cost of energy. In many older buildings there are also space and architectural constraints. I expect these objections will fall away in future years as summer heat gets more intense. Those who can afford A/C will install what is often seen as a conspicuous luxury and energy-wasting convenience, and those who can't will envy rather than despise them, as the culture continues its shift towards individualism. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/08/europe-france-germany-air-conditioning-heat-wave-climate/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/08/europe-franc...
  - moi2388 3y ago
    What are you talking about? Literally every gas station sells chilled iced coffee. Just like all coffee shops and most supermarkets. And under EU law fresh food fridges must target 4C and not exceed 8C, only food pantries are allowed go to 18 degrees. I agree with the ACs, but then again in houses it usually wasn’t necessary until now. Most public spaces do have AC, and public transportation with AC are also quite common, at least in the developed parts of the EU

donatj 3y ago

I grew up poor and without AC in Minnesota where we regularly get spells of 100°F+ (37.7°C) at VERY high humidity thanks to all the lakes. It’s survivable, it’s absolutely not pleasant though and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Fans and wet rags help some. I used to fill a 2-liter bottle with cold water and hold it against my chest. A lot of sleepless nights. When we got a local second run $2 movie theater, it was a literal godsend.

brazzy 3y ago
The point is that at some sufficiently high humidity, fans and wet rags do not help any more, at all! Combine that with sufficiently high temperatures, and it's not survivable. And will kill people with weak circulatory systems (i.e. the elderly and babies) quite a bit earlier.
- masklinn 3y ago
  It also causes long-term damage (e.g. loss of kidney function) to healthy individuals. This is an issue that’s been tracked for a decade in mesoamerican field workers.
- wholinator2 3y ago
  Yes, the fan cannot cool. But have your ever experienced the cold water tap being cooler than the ambient air temperature? They mean that they soak a rag in cold water, from the tap, and then apply that to themselves. This will 100% help cool the person down. You could run a cold bath, take a cold shower, even drink the cold water (but not too much too cold!) If you have cold water, you can survive.
  - triceratops 3y ago
    That only works if the water pipelines are underground and all the above-ground plumbing is shaded. If the water heats up on its way to the faucet it's useless.
  - brazzy 3y ago
    That's a big "if" in rural areas of third world countries, though.

mr_person 3y ago

Can confirm. Its disgusting. I am also a grumpy fart right now because the night time temperature has not dropped below 20degrees since, like, November[1]. If I tried to aircon that like I do most of the day time, I would wake up a sinusy coughing mess... Sure, 30degrees and 90+ humidity is survivable, but only just. [1] https://7news.com.au/news/brisbane-set-to-break-record-of-days-when-temperature-stays-above-20c--c-13777783 https://7news.com.au/news/brisbane-set-to-break-record-of-da...

bloomingeek 3y ago
<Sure, 30degrees and 90+ humidity is survivable, but only just.> And how could you get any work done? I worked in the oilfields when I was in my early twenty's, if the temp was over 100F, less work got done because we didn't want to die. I knew men who got heat stroke, they were never the same again. I myself got heat exhaustion several times, it took a few days to recover. Our bodies can only take so much, no matter how tough you are, wet rags and frequent breaks don't always work.
- sysadmindotfail 3y ago
  >And how could you get any work done? Drink (hopefully cold) water and cover up from the sun. I grew up doing manual labor in a climate like this. People adapt, but there are of course limits. Children die sometimes being pushed too hard in athletics, etc. The majority of people however simply put up with it.
- rstuart4133 3y ago
  I also live in Brisbane, ie same area. Two examples of getting work done: 1. I was happing working in 36°C in November, but the temperature dropped to around 30°C after December and the humidity went up to near 100%. I got saturated in my own sweat on 50 meter walk to the work site. I worked outside for 1 hour stints, then retreated to aircon. 2. But not everyone could do that ... and in Brisbane, they died on the job. https://qnt.cfmeu.org/news/workers-walk-cross-river-rail-after-heat-related-injuries-and-fatality https://qnt.cfmeu.org/news/workers-walk-cross-river-rail-aft... I'm 64 and never head of seen of such a thing happening locally before. Remember, this is in Australia, a rich first world country, aircon everywhere, with some of the best medical resources on the planet (free). On the news they were tell us we are seeing higher sustained humidity that Singapore, with higher temperatures. The government weather bureau predicted 20mm of rain over one night, and we got 200mm. Their explanation is while they have over 100 years of data, they had never seen this much moisture in the air before and so their models were untrained. The Bureau said driver behind this is we get most of our moisture / rain fall from the Coral Sea, which is part of the Pacific. The El Nino on top of global warming has driven sea surface temperatures 1.5°C above normal. 1.5° - it sounds so small. What is terrifying is it is small. At the same time in Newfoundland the sea temperature was 8.5°C above normal. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/28/ocean-temperature-maps-heat-records/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/28/ocean-temp... I guess the only reason people are still alive there in the average temperature is lower.

jijijijij 3y ago

The thing to think about, is how poorly developed, rural places, without ACs or stable grids, are much more likely to experience heat waves with universally fatal wet-bulb temperatures. Places like parts of India or Bangladesh with high population densities, too. Further more, I think, we also need to consider how non-survivable conditions to humans, may play out for other animals we depend on. The cows, chicken, sheep and goats? All dead. But consider also the impact on ecosystems, when birds and predators may die in large quantities in a short time - these ecosystems may completely collapse. Great impact on food security in affected regions. Not to mention disease dynamics when pathogens experience body-like conditions outside the body, and all the decay and death around. I am not sure all plants would make it either, since they need evaporation of water from their leaves, too, to transport nutrients from the soil upwards - and with halted transport, may not be able to fight fungi and so on. Now, this threat may not come as a gradual trend, but may introduce itself as single (first) freak heat-wave killing hundred thousands of people all at once. A whole region may get the message their land is not habitable for humans anymore. Imagine the migration pressure as a consequence. I don't think a poor country could ever properly adapt to frequent non-survivable temperatures sustainably...

hackerlight 3y ago
[flagged]
- codebolt 3y ago
  Or the hysteria was overblown, and we instead sabotaged an opportunity for many of the people living near the equator to become more prosperous.
  - hackerlight 3y ago
    Easy gamble to make when you don't live in a country with regular 33'c temperatures at 60% humidity. And if your gamble turns out wrong will you compensate the victims? Will you advocate for borders to be opened up as they have to flee their countries?

safety1st 3y ago

Millions of people already live in these conditions (temperature in the low 30s, constant high humidity) in the tropics so I am skeptical about that study. It sucks for me in those conditions but a lot of locals say they're used to it. The general strategy without AC is to minimize activity during the hottest part of the day and keep a fan on you.

darkerside 3y ago
With high enough heat, a fan will only make things worse, no?
- bloomingeek 3y ago
  I can only reply with my experience, if you had access to water to put on your body in a hot area with a fan, you would get some evaporation. If there's no easy access to water, then shade, IMO, is the best option. Hot, blown air on a very hot day is almost painful.
- bell-cot 3y ago
  If the wet bulb temp is above (say) 40C, definitely yes.
- safety1st 3y ago
  I can only report what I see, which is that in many parts of the world including where I live, it's always in the 30s, humidity levels are high, a lot of people can't afford air con, and there are no mass heat deaths. If they don't have access to AC they run fans all the time, and they stay indoors or in the shade. In fact in the cold months where it dips under 30 the local news always runs a story or two about the (small) wave of cold deaths. (I think usually in parts of the country where it gets down to 15-20 at night) Today it was 35 in the afternoon and about 70% humidity. I went outside for a swim. There were probably over a million people in my city who were sitting outside all day because their jobs required it. It was a somewhat hot but otherwise completely ordinary day. If you said they're on the brink of heat death they'd say you're crazy. It may be that people who sit in air conditioned offices in cold countries are translating that one study into some hysteria. It may be they will have the "opportunity" to learn to live in a hot climate like the rest of us, rather than die by the millions.

osigurdson 3y ago

Interesting as large swaths of humanity would die if utilities (electricity, water, gas) shut down for long periods of time. I would have died at least twice this winter for example.

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago

Good thing the problem is as easily solved by going 6 ft underground, or getting in a cold bath. Patna India typically has weather like this for two months a year and probably a million people live there without A/C (just fine): https://weatherspark.com/y/111069/Average-Weather-in-Patna-India-Year-Round https://weatherspark.com/y/111069/Average-Weather-in-Patna-I...

richrichie 3y ago

32 deg C is a mild summer in many parts of the world and most of that world does not have 24/7 electricity, even from coal. Incidentally, pro tennis players descend in Melbourne during the peak of Australian summer and play best of 5 sets (men) in the heat where temperatures reach high forties (deg C) and even fifties.

cromulent 3y ago
Of course, high temperatures on their own are fine. The temperature is not the only factor, it is the humidity. Wet-bulb temperature is the key indicator.

tzs 3y ago

If you've got a well and your well water is always significantly below body temperature one thing that might be worth considering is installing a hand pump. You could then at least draw a bath and sit in the tub to remain cool. That works by contact with something colder than you. It does not rely on evaporation and so is not affected by high humidity.

hintymad 3y ago

> is that such weather is not survivable long term [1] without air conditioning I seriously doubt it. I grew up in an area that frequently hit 35C with close to 100% humidity, and I didn't even have an electronic fan before 9 years old. And multiple cities with 10s of millions people had the similar condition too. It was not pleasant but let me assure you, more people died of cold than heat, orders of magnitude more. In a poor country, or an Asian country more than 100 years ago, 10s of thousands of people in a single city would die in a snowy winter. Not having air conditioner? Seriously, that's a first-world problem.

seoulmetro 3y ago

I don't believe the Sunshine Coast ever reaches 100% humidity unless it's raining, which cools the region. The sun does a great job at making sure humidity is at least always below 80%. Also, those temperatures are very tolerable for most people, in most of Australia. It's just that they're uncomfortable.

jjav 3y ago

> 32° and 100% humidity > is not survivable long term 32C is only 89F, which isn't hot at all. Coming from the tropics where 90s(F) with very high humidity is common, I can't see how that is not survivable. I walked to school and back home in that weather every day and it wasn't a big deal. We never had air conditioning, too poor for that.