4 ms·

Are the recent issues statistically significant or are people just paying more attention?

by ortusdux 3y ago

reactordev 3y ago
Just paying more attention.
asciimov 3y ago
Yes the issues with the 737 Max 8 are significant. Major malfunctions are not the norm on airlines.
- brentm 3y ago
  The door blowing out is something I'd blame on Boeing but these two incidents this week (tire falling off) and whatever happened here seem not likely their fault?
- eqvinox 3y ago
  I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction, and the greenery excursion might well be pilot error. The engine fire I'm not sure about, it being a 21yo plane. Give the NTSB some time for proper reports...
  - bananapub 3y ago
    > I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction, a tyre dropping off in such a way that it could have easily killed several people doesn't count as a major malfunction to you?
    - bobthepanda 3y ago
      if it went into the grass and the tire fell off that is a bit of a different situation. the landing gear is not meant to stay attached to the plane in all scenarios at all costs, and a 737 is not supposed to be an off road vehicle
  - bagels 3y ago
    People keep saying tire, but the whole wheel came off. Still likely maintenance/inspection related.
    - pugworthy 3y ago
      Best to find out if the wheel issue led to going off the runway or going off the runway led to the wheel issue.
      - eqvinox 3y ago
        You're mixing up two incidents, we now have: - the 737 MAX8 going into the greenery - the 777-200 losing a wheel - the 737 (21yo, not MAX) with an engine fire after takeoff (this sounds bad but can be just bird-rich intake air due to very poor luck) - the 737-8 rudder servo freeze NTSB report (which is the only thing with actual insights available, the servo involved appears out of spec)
  - bdjsiqoocwk 3y ago
    > I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction Just reminding everyone here that on take off planes are loaded with fuel. However minor the cause may seem to our expert HN commentators, if that leaks and ignites almost for sure a significant fraction of the people on board will die.
    - eqvinox 3y ago
      You're right, but at the same time I've read enough NTSB reports to know tyres (admittedly not entire wheels) fail rather frequently. (Normally during landing.) And getting the fuel ignited is not that easy on modern planes. But yeah we need to wait for the NTSB.
gopher_space 3y ago
Statistically insignificant issues regarding flight don't really make the news. Keep in mind that your flat tire is a bummer, their flat tire could kill a thousand people.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ortusdux 3y ago
  > Statistically insignificant issues regarding flight don't really make the news. Except they do when airline safety is trending in the news. In 2019, the NTSB registered 40 accidents involving damage to a major air carrier or injury to a passenger. That is about 1 major event every 10 days. It's been 18 days since the last major event (door blowing off). https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/StatisticalReviews/Pages/CivilAviationDashboard.aspx https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/StatisticalReviews/Pages/CivilAv...
  - gopher_space 3y ago
    I'm suggesting that the types of issues an engineer wouldn't consider to be significant would actually be too boring to report on.

Are the recent issues statistically significant or are people just paying more attention?

reactordev 3y ago

Just paying more attention.

asciimov 3y ago

Yes the issues with the 737 Max 8 are significant. Major malfunctions are not the norm on airlines.

brentm 3y ago
The door blowing out is something I'd blame on Boeing but these two incidents this week (tire falling off) and whatever happened here seem not likely their fault?
eqvinox 3y ago
I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction, and the greenery excursion might well be pilot error. The engine fire I'm not sure about, it being a 21yo plane. Give the NTSB some time for proper reports...
- bananapub 3y ago
  > I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction, a tyre dropping off in such a way that it could have easily killed several people doesn't count as a major malfunction to you?
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    if it went into the grass and the tire fell off that is a bit of a different situation. the landing gear is not meant to stay attached to the plane in all scenarios at all costs, and a 737 is not supposed to be an off road vehicle
- bagels 3y ago
  People keep saying tire, but the whole wheel came off. Still likely maintenance/inspection related.
  - pugworthy 3y ago
    Best to find out if the wheel issue led to going off the runway or going off the runway led to the wheel issue.
    - eqvinox 3y ago
      You're mixing up two incidents, we now have: - the 737 MAX8 going into the greenery - the 777-200 losing a wheel - the 737 (21yo, not MAX) with an engine fire after takeoff (this sounds bad but can be just bird-rich intake air due to very poor luck) - the 737-8 rudder servo freeze NTSB report (which is the only thing with actual insights available, the servo involved appears out of spec)
- bdjsiqoocwk 3y ago
  > I don't think the lost tyre qualifies for a major malfunction Just reminding everyone here that on take off planes are loaded with fuel. However minor the cause may seem to our expert HN commentators, if that leaks and ignites almost for sure a significant fraction of the people on board will die.
  - eqvinox 3y ago
    You're right, but at the same time I've read enough NTSB reports to know tyres (admittedly not entire wheels) fail rather frequently. (Normally during landing.) And getting the fuel ignited is not that easy on modern planes. But yeah we need to wait for the NTSB.

gopher_space 3y ago

Statistically insignificant issues regarding flight don't really make the news. Keep in mind that your flat tire is a bummer, their flat tire could kill a thousand people.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ortusdux 3y ago
> Statistically insignificant issues regarding flight don't really make the news. Except they do when airline safety is trending in the news. In 2019, the NTSB registered 40 accidents involving damage to a major air carrier or injury to a passenger. That is about 1 major event every 10 days. It's been 18 days since the last major event (door blowing off). https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/StatisticalReviews/Pages/CivilAviationDashboard.aspx https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/StatisticalReviews/Pages/CivilAv...
- gopher_space 3y ago
  I'm suggesting that the types of issues an engineer wouldn't consider to be significant would actually be too boring to report on.