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I have many Serbian friends going for holidays in Croatia. Unthinkable 30 years ago. So maybe, in 50 years from now, Russia will join NATO, too?
by baxtr 3y ago
I have many Serbian friends going for holidays in Croatia. Unthinkable 30 years ago.
So maybe, in 50 years from now, Russia will join NATO, too?
- empiricus 3y agoThe current NATO expansion happens only because those countries are scared of Russia. Also, by definition, NATO exists to fight Russia.
- przyszlem 3y agoThis is not true, NATO is a defensive pact. Only russian propaganda says differently
- JacobiX 3y agoI think that NATO was founded after World War II, largely due to British efforts to contain the Soviet Union and its influence in Europe ?
- thiagoharry 3y agoThis is western propaganda. NATO were used to attack Yugoslavia and Libia. Attacking 2 countries that did not attack you looks offensive, not defensive, to me.
- geysersam 3y agoHopefully! If the warmongers don't get to decide
- AlGrothendieck 3y agoWhile Secretary General, Ismay is also credited as having been the first person to say that the purpose of NATO was "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," a saying that has since become a common way to describe the dynamics of NATO
- red-iron-pine 3y agothe irony is that NATO is pushing Germany to aggressively and quickly re-arm if NATO wants America in then they need to do something about an angry orange political candidate...
- Slava_Propanei 3y ago[dead]
- rainworld 3y ago>aggressively and quickly re-arm On top of that, there's inflation and the value-added tax, which mean that, once all the extra costs have been covered, only about €50 to €70 billion will be left over to spend on actual hardware. "The longer you have this money sit around somewhere, the longer factors like inflation and interest payments have to eat away at this pile," Loss said.[0] There has been some criticism from European allies, and within Germany, that so many big orders have been placed in the United States. Depriving local industry. And of what use is this anyway. Why on earth would Germany need ballistic missile defense etc. >quickly Two years in, the entire West still cannot outproduce Russia. Let alone Russia plus friends. For the most part, dependable large orders—necessary for expansion—aren’t coming. Overall, deindustrialization is only accelerating. Italy just ordered 132 L2s for 2027–2037. Pathetic timeframe. These tanks will be obsolete by then. >NATO wants America in There is no NATO without the US. Something could conceivably carry the same name but it would not be the same thing. NATO is and has always been an instrument of American control over Europe. >angry orange political candidate Remember when Trump ordered a reduction of the occupation force in Germany (35k then)? Well, Serious People got Very Nervous and the military stalled the order. In fact, the generals were in a state of barely concealed mutiny then. And now there’s 50k. So, rest assured: Germany will be Kept Down for the foreseeable future. [0]: https://www.dw.com/en/what-happened-to-the-german-militarys-100-billion-fund/a-64846571 https://www.dw.com/en/what-happened-to-the-german-militarys-...
- xpl 3y agoRussia had in fact expressed desire to join NATO in Putin's early days as a president. Apparently he wanted to fast-track, so it might have hurt his ego somehow, when he was told that Russia is no special. https://web.archive.org/web/20240228155601/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule https://web.archive.org/web/20240228155601/https://www.thegu... George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary who led Nato between 1999 and 2003, said Putin made it clear at their first meeting that he wanted Russia to be part of western Europe. “They wanted to be part of that secure, stable prosperous west that Russia was out of at the time,” he said. The Labour peer recalled an early meeting with Putin, who became Russian president in 2000. “Putin said: ‘When are you going to invite us to join Nato?’ And [Robertson] said: ‘Well, we don’t invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.’ And he said: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’”
- hnarn 3y agoYou don’t need to be an expert on Russian foreign policy to conclude from nothing but that final quote that Russia (rather, Putin) never had any serious desire to join Nato in the first place. Putins views on Russia may have been more widely broadcasted recently because of Carlsons interview, but don’t be fooled; they were no different 24 years ago.
- partiallypro 3y agoPutin had no intention to join NATO, and knew he wouldn't get in. The only reason he would want in is to do the exact same thing that Russia does on the UN security council as a permanent member, which is to stifle and blockade. There are some current NATO members that hold things up, largely Turkey. Coincidentally a large number of smuggled items that get around sanctions to get to Russia...go through Turkey.
- xpl 3y agoYes, that is a plausible explanation. On the other hand, I have witnessed how the Putin's rhetoric made a U-turn over those dozens of years — from "Fukuyama-level" liberal and pro-Western (early Putin), to "geopolitical realist" and pretty much anti-Western (as of today). I don't know how much this reflects his actual worldview transformation (if there was any), but I have reasons to believe that there is no smoke without fire.
- hnarn 3y ago> So maybe, in 50 years from now, Russia will join NATO, too? While not technically impossible, practically this is very hard to see. Unless Russia becomes a market liberal, well functioning democracy, it will not happen -- and what are the odds of that? Russia had the chance after the collapse of the Soviet Union, instead it devolved into a plutocracy and what is essentially a one-party state in anything but name. Regardless of what some people might think, in no small part due to many people seeing Russia as the spiritual successor to the SU combined with its vast geographical size, Russia is not a superpower, and will not become one in our lifetime. Yes, they have nukes. So does the UK, and the UK economy is 20% larger than Russia despite is essentially being an island off Europe. How about France? They have nukes too, and their economy is 30% larger. Russia is a failed state at the tail end of a century long brain drain, crippled by corruption and authoritarian rule, but none of these things are the most deciding factor in why they will never be part of NATO; the primary reason is that Russia quite simply has an empire complex. What do you get if you combine economical stagnation and a dead empire inferiority complex? You get Hitler, or in this case Putin, and I very much doubt any of us will see a "rehabilitation" of the Russian people like we saw in Germany in our lifetime.
- danlugo92 3y ago> Unless Russia becomes a market liberal, well functioning democracy, it will not happen -- and what are the odds of that? I think the odds are actually pretty good 50 years out in the future. At the same time, some democratic or benevolent dictator country (e.g. Phillipines or El Salvador) could be totally fucked up (again) in 50 years.
- baxtr 3y agoInteresting take. What do you think we will see in Europe the next 5-15 years?
- Vilian 3y agomy bet is also explained here https://youtu.be/YJVUGecCXv0 https://youtu.be/YJVUGecCXv0
- euroderf 3y ago[flagged]
- quickthrowman 3y ago> So maybe, in 50 years from now, Russia will join NATO, too? Probably not. Russian history for the last several hundred years is a series of kings, emperors, and dictators. Massacres and purges. The entire peasantry was only freed from slavery 150 years ago. Being ruled by hereditary monarchs and dictators for so long has fundamentally changed Russian culture to be vastly different from the West. IMO it would take a radical culture shift for Russia to join the West.
- valarauko 3y agoIsn't that true of, say, western Europe too, perhaps leading Russia by 50 years or so?
- andrewjl 3y agoWestern Europe was not too different at the start of the medieval period but then evolved in a different direction. The King's Two Bodies by Ernst Kantorowicz is a good read on this.
- tim333 3y agoThere's been quite a trend in the long term to democracy and the like if with blips. Like in this graph of countries that are democacies, 200 years ago 2.5%, fifty years ago 30%, now 61%. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-democracies-nondemocracies-bmr https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-democracies-non... I get the impression Russians would like a more modern system but have a job shifting Putin. But he won't be around for ever.
- swat535 3y agoIndeed, let's not forget our incredible human capacity for forgiveness. Two major peace treaties I pray to see every day is Palestine and Israel and for the Russians and Ukrainians to be brothers. Sometimes I wonder what a unified world look like, for example what would it look for Palestine and Israel becoming a single nation? For South Korea and North Korea to merge again in brother hood? For China and Taiwan ? etc. Like how boring would the news be in complete peace? what we wound be doing instead if we weren't busy killing each other? Just some questions I ponder sometimes..