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"All models are wrong", but some models are more wrong than others. My estimate for how much flour I'm going to put in the bread is going to be way, way more ac

"All models are wrong", but some models are more wrong than others. My estimate for how much flour I'm going to put in the bread is going to be way, way more accurate than your estimate of how many years ChatGPT shaved off Albanian EU process. I just can't get over the absurdity of even attempting to estimate - in 0.1 decimal years - how many years tool X shaves off of a totally non quantifiable complex real world process. And I can't get over the absurdity of seeing multiple people here defending this bullshit.

neom 3y ago
That's fair!! I accept it. I'd hazard a guess that all the people here, people like me, "defending this bullshit" - are probably professionally estimators - I am anyway, so I suppose I personally take particular offense to picking on estimates. However, I will never fight that some estimates are superior to others, that is indeed a fact. A good conversation regardless, and isn't that why we're all here? Have a great day Atte. :)
- baobabKoodaa 3y ago
  I'm not sure what a professional estimator is, but I hope the implied precision in your estimates is reasonable. In this case it was not the act of estimating itself which was pissing people off - it was the ridiculous level of implied precision. As another commenter noted, presenting the estimate at "5 years" wouldn't be nearly as ridiculous as presenting the estimate at "5.5 years", as the latter implies a level of precision that is entirely unrealistic for non physical processes. Have a great day as well!
  - Falimonda 3y ago
    What if the level of precision is posed as "within X months"? 5.5 years is just 66 months... The claim that an estimate of 5.5 years is "a level of precision that is entirely unrealistic for non physical processes" is absurd. In this context, how can you possibly believe that businesses and organizations worldwide are not capable of estimating non-physical procesess to within a month?

neom 3y ago

That's fair!! I accept it. I'd hazard a guess that all the people here, people like me, "defending this bullshit" - are probably professionally estimators - I am anyway, so I suppose I personally take particular offense to picking on estimates. However, I will never fight that some estimates are superior to others, that is indeed a fact. A good conversation regardless, and isn't that why we're all here? Have a great day Atte. :)

baobabKoodaa 3y ago
I'm not sure what a professional estimator is, but I hope the implied precision in your estimates is reasonable. In this case it was not the act of estimating itself which was pissing people off - it was the ridiculous level of implied precision. As another commenter noted, presenting the estimate at "5 years" wouldn't be nearly as ridiculous as presenting the estimate at "5.5 years", as the latter implies a level of precision that is entirely unrealistic for non physical processes. Have a great day as well!
- Falimonda 3y ago
  What if the level of precision is posed as "within X months"? 5.5 years is just 66 months... The claim that an estimate of 5.5 years is "a level of precision that is entirely unrealistic for non physical processes" is absurd. In this context, how can you possibly believe that businesses and organizations worldwide are not capable of estimating non-physical procesess to within a month?