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US won’t ever lead in EVs because it’s the largest producer of oil in the world. The government has incentives to keep ICE as long as possible, thus, hard to be

US won’t ever lead in EVs because it’s the largest producer of oil in the world. The government has incentives to keep ICE as long as possible, thus, hard to be competitive in EVs over the long run. China meanwhile, is trying its hardest to remove its dependency on foreign oil. Europe’s incentives are more aligned with China’s.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
If you think that the USA producing oil gives it incentive to lead in ICE cars, I think you’ll be disappointed. The real outlier are the Japanese, they made bets on hydrogen that aren’t panning out, and so are really behind.
holoduke 3y ago
Europa more aligned with China? I don't think so. They are very much opposed to evs from China. Thinking about added import taxes to reduce the massive import of Chinese cars. Europe is also on old school oil continent in decline.
- csomar 3y ago
  > Europe’s ==incentives== are more aligned with China’s.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  Mercedes sells more cars in China than all of Europe. China is Audi’s biggest market. China is BMW’s biggest market outside of Germany. So if Europe decides to prevent Chinese EVs from coming into the market, China would do the same for European cars. This is why Chinese EVs are prioritizing Europe over US as a market. Plus the aforementioned fact that Europe wants to move off oil faster than US wants to.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Those are all JVs, Tesla is the only foreign auto company in China that isn’t part of a 51-49 JV. Europe would probably require china to reciprocate if they wanted to start exporting cars made in China into Europe (since China didn’t import many cars made in Europe in the first place).
    - wenyuanyu 3y ago
      Future automotive joint ventures (JVs) in China will cease following the completion of existing contract term. China is lifting all foreign investment restrictions in all its manufacturing sector this year[0][1]. [0] https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-to-remove-all-restrictions-on-7221095 https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-to-remove-all-restri... [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254259/chinas-two-sessions-2024-did-premiers-speech-move-needle-foreign-private-business https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254259/c...
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Not sure why you were downvoted, but that's great. The JV structure no longer benefits china, However, China should still expect blowback from having their economy protected for so long.
  - holoduke 3y ago
    Yes for Germany its a bit of a difficult situation, but Europe is itself is actually looking into adding more tax to Chinese evs. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-allow-possible-retroactive-tariffs-chinese-evs-2024-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set... The whole Europese car industry is in a bad shape today. And it successfully lobbied an extension of allowable ice cars. They might be more inclined to promote evs, but certainly not on the level of China. Us and Europe are much more alike.
nixonpjoshua 3y ago
I think people forget that Tesla is an US company sometimes... that being said, adoption in the US is probably going to be slowed by cheap gas compared to Europe or Asia
tw1984 3y ago
> China meanwhile, is trying its hardest to remove its dependency on foreign oil. Dependency on foreign oil is obviously one reason, but let's don't miss the big picture here China is trying its hardest in all sectors, everything. With over 1 billion people that are just dead poor, there is no choice but to compete the hardest with everyone on everything. Semiconductor, ev, 5G, bio tech, AI, ship building, high speed rail, internet, solar panel etc, the list goes on and on. Is there anything China is not trying its best to compete?
- todd3834 3y ago
  Christian churches? I’m not trying to be funny or controversial but definitely an area they don’t seem interested in.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  I don't disagree with you. I think being energy dependent is a main goal of China's. But in the grand scheme of things, the Chinese just want to secure their future and finances, just like anyone else.
  - tw1984 3y ago
    > I think being energy dependent is a main goal of China's. There is no way for China to be energy independent. The choice is really just choosing importing what kind of energy from which countries. Imported energy is not a bad thing. It is actually a great way to balance trade. You can't expect the Chinese economy to run a trade surplus like hundreds of billions $ each year with the US and EU. Buying US natural gas is pretty good as long as you have a solid reliable alternative plan, e.g. Russian energy.
    - gibolt 3y ago
      China is physically the same size as the U.S. They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. ICE car sales requirements are going up drastically this year, meaning most new sales could be EV within 5 years, and they could sell EVs at such scale after that that a ban on gas cars in cities would convert the rest of the fleet in another 5-10 years. Once you have cheap, abundant energy all the industrial segments are highly motivated to switch.
amou234 3y ago
Europe is not going to commit seppuku and willingly allow Chinese EVs to destroy their internal car industry. Especially since China is now more and more visibly aiding Russia in its war against Europe. Tariff from EU will stop Chinese EVs dead in the water. In fact, today, there was news that EU is set to allow possible retroactive tariffs on Chinese EVs [1]. And there's an ongoing EU anti-subsidy probe that will conclude this year, most likely resulting in more tariffs. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-allow-possible-retroactive-tariffs-chinese-evs-2024-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set...
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  You will probably see european companies integrating with chinese suppliers (like Volkswagen / XPeng etc.); a bit like Tesla. European car markers still have much better brands and sales channels.
- tdudhhu 3y ago
  Not only that, there are also big concerns when it comes to spying. Huawei's net gear is alread being replaced with brands like Nokia and Ericsson. And car tech is becoming much more advanced so that it can also be used to spy on people.
  - aurareturn 3y ago
    "Spying". The default word people here use to justify we shouldn't let China compete at the highest value chain.
    - tdudhhu 3y ago
      Also true, but China is spying on their own people already. I would not be surprised if Chinese EVs are sending data to the government. So the tech is there. And then it comes to trust. Will they not send data when they sell cars outside China?
    - yard2010 3y ago

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

If you think that the USA producing oil gives it incentive to lead in ICE cars, I think you’ll be disappointed. The real outlier are the Japanese, they made bets on hydrogen that aren’t panning out, and so are really behind.

holoduke 3y ago

Europa more aligned with China? I don't think so. They are very much opposed to evs from China. Thinking about added import taxes to reduce the massive import of Chinese cars. Europe is also on old school oil continent in decline.

csomar 3y ago
> Europe’s ==incentives== are more aligned with China’s.
aurareturn 3y ago
Mercedes sells more cars in China than all of Europe. China is Audi’s biggest market. China is BMW’s biggest market outside of Germany. So if Europe decides to prevent Chinese EVs from coming into the market, China would do the same for European cars. This is why Chinese EVs are prioritizing Europe over US as a market. Plus the aforementioned fact that Europe wants to move off oil faster than US wants to.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Those are all JVs, Tesla is the only foreign auto company in China that isn’t part of a 51-49 JV. Europe would probably require china to reciprocate if they wanted to start exporting cars made in China into Europe (since China didn’t import many cars made in Europe in the first place).
  - wenyuanyu 3y ago
    Future automotive joint ventures (JVs) in China will cease following the completion of existing contract term. China is lifting all foreign investment restrictions in all its manufacturing sector this year[0][1]. [0] https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-to-remove-all-restrictions-on-7221095 https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-to-remove-all-restri... [1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254259/chinas-two-sessions-2024-did-premiers-speech-move-needle-foreign-private-business https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3254259/c...
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      Not sure why you were downvoted, but that's great. The JV structure no longer benefits china, However, China should still expect blowback from having their economy protected for so long.
- holoduke 3y ago
  Yes for Germany its a bit of a difficult situation, but Europe is itself is actually looking into adding more tax to Chinese evs. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-allow-possible-retroactive-tariffs-chinese-evs-2024-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set... The whole Europese car industry is in a bad shape today. And it successfully lobbied an extension of allowable ice cars. They might be more inclined to promote evs, but certainly not on the level of China. Us and Europe are much more alike.

nixonpjoshua 3y ago

I think people forget that Tesla is an US company sometimes... that being said, adoption in the US is probably going to be slowed by cheap gas compared to Europe or Asia

tw1984 3y ago

> China meanwhile, is trying its hardest to remove its dependency on foreign oil. Dependency on foreign oil is obviously one reason, but let's don't miss the big picture here China is trying its hardest in all sectors, everything. With over 1 billion people that are just dead poor, there is no choice but to compete the hardest with everyone on everything. Semiconductor, ev, 5G, bio tech, AI, ship building, high speed rail, internet, solar panel etc, the list goes on and on. Is there anything China is not trying its best to compete?

todd3834 3y ago
Christian churches? I’m not trying to be funny or controversial but definitely an area they don’t seem interested in.
aurareturn 3y ago
I don't disagree with you. I think being energy dependent is a main goal of China's. But in the grand scheme of things, the Chinese just want to secure their future and finances, just like anyone else.
- tw1984 3y ago
  > I think being energy dependent is a main goal of China's. There is no way for China to be energy independent. The choice is really just choosing importing what kind of energy from which countries. Imported energy is not a bad thing. It is actually a great way to balance trade. You can't expect the Chinese economy to run a trade surplus like hundreds of billions $ each year with the US and EU. Buying US natural gas is pretty good as long as you have a solid reliable alternative plan, e.g. Russian energy.
  - gibolt 3y ago
    China is physically the same size as the U.S. They absolutely want energy independence, and will probably achieve it for the majority of use within 10 years. ICE car sales requirements are going up drastically this year, meaning most new sales could be EV within 5 years, and they could sell EVs at such scale after that that a ban on gas cars in cities would convert the rest of the fleet in another 5-10 years. Once you have cheap, abundant energy all the industrial segments are highly motivated to switch.

amou234 3y ago

Europe is not going to commit seppuku and willingly allow Chinese EVs to destroy their internal car industry. Especially since China is now more and more visibly aiding Russia in its war against Europe. Tariff from EU will stop Chinese EVs dead in the water. In fact, today, there was news that EU is set to allow possible retroactive tariffs on Chinese EVs [1]. And there's an ongoing EU anti-subsidy probe that will conclude this year, most likely resulting in more tariffs. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-allow-possible-retroactive-tariffs-chinese-evs-2024-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set...

throwaway4good 3y ago
You will probably see european companies integrating with chinese suppliers (like Volkswagen / XPeng etc.); a bit like Tesla. European car markers still have much better brands and sales channels.
tdudhhu 3y ago
Not only that, there are also big concerns when it comes to spying. Huawei's net gear is alread being replaced with brands like Nokia and Ericsson. And car tech is becoming much more advanced so that it can also be used to spy on people.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  "Spying". The default word people here use to justify we shouldn't let China compete at the highest value chain.
  - tdudhhu 3y ago
    Also true, but China is spying on their own people already. I would not be surprised if Chinese EVs are sending data to the government. So the tech is there. And then it comes to trust. Will they not send data when they sell cars outside China?
  - yard2010 3y ago