4 ms·

Cant say about Europe and US but with these prices and sizes they can and probably will take over many asian cities in the next 2-3 years

toomuchtodo 3y ago
20% of 2023 new vehicles sold globally last year were EVs. Trajectory going to go vertical very quickly. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39575172 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39575172 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39624636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39624636
- TomK32 3y ago
  Vertical? I doubt that, besides the literal meaning of the word. The first two months saw a YOY increase of new registrations in Germany but the share of EV did drop. People are stubborn and love the ease of filling up a petrol tank. There were more Ferraris registered than BYD, though that might change. In November the Austrian state of Oberösterreich did announce BYD being the winning bid for buying a fleet of electric vehicles, but in January it was instead decided to lease BMW and VW cars instead. Sadly still cars instead of a stronger investment into public transport.
  - konschubert 3y ago
    Germany is not the world.
    - throwaway4good 3y ago
      They also abruptly cancelled their EV-subsidy which probably explains why the share of EVs is dropping.
      - konschubert 3y ago
        Yes, it’s likely a one time effect.
      - TomK32 3y ago
        Oberösterreich is not in Germany, but that contract was only for 35 cars.
        radikalerludwig 3y ago
        > https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-end-e-vehicle-subsidy-programme-2023-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/german...
  - Tade0 3y ago
    I think it's not mentioned often enough how difficult it currently is to find enough bus/tram drivers having the demographics that Europe in general does. Cars will remain a mode of transportation simply because there is a huge professional driver shortage.
    - TomK32 3y ago
      As long as the focus is wrong: Yes. In Germany the Pendlerpauschale (a tax rebate when you live a long distance for your workplace) costs the state 2.2 billion Euros a year, Diesel is still taxed less than petrol, another 8.5 billion and there's a tax privilege for company cars in a mix-private use which costs 1.8 billion. There's plenty of money to pay bus/tram driver more and build more lines. One thing most forget: Travel and transportation that is car-focused ignores those who can't yet/anymore operate a car. Better public transport allows you granny to travel easier as well as your children.
      - Tade0 3y ago
        I seem to have not make my point clear enough: You can't persuade people using money, at least not the kind of money cities can afford, as there are plenty of equally paid, less stressful and more interesting things to do with your life. In my city of 600k inhabitants there's a shortage of around 100 drivers - and that's just to service the lines that are currently operating. That's approximately 80k people not having their transportation needs met. The city is also cripplingly congested, but that's expected when you can't rely on public transportation. We need a solution that doesn't rely on demographics like they were in the 60s or even 80s.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
viraptor 3y ago
BYD is already relatively large in Australia, mainly because other manufacturers were aiming for the high end and complaining that people don't buy enough of their cars... Meanwhile BYD will sell as much as they can ship. (They got 14% of the market in ~1.5 years)
- guidedlight 3y ago
  BYD will reach their market space limit in Australia, they just seem to be eating Tesla’s momentum at the moment. Australia has a long history of brand snobbery when it comes to car manufacturers. Most new entrants into the Australian market don’t make it long term.
aurareturn 3y ago
US won’t ever lead in EVs because it’s the largest producer of oil in the world. The government has incentives to keep ICE as long as possible, thus, hard to be competitive in EVs over the long run. China meanwhile, is trying its hardest to remove its dependency on foreign oil. Europe’s incentives are more aligned with China’s.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  If you think that the USA producing oil gives it incentive to lead in ICE cars, I think you’ll be disappointed. The real outlier are the Japanese, they made bets on hydrogen that aren’t panning out, and so are really behind.
- holoduke 3y ago
  Europa more aligned with China? I don't think so. They are very much opposed to evs from China. Thinking about added import taxes to reduce the massive import of Chinese cars. Europe is also on old school oil continent in decline.
  - csomar 3y ago
    > Europe’s ==incentives== are more aligned with China’s.
  - aurareturn 3y ago
    Mercedes sells more cars in China than all of Europe. China is Audi’s biggest market. China is BMW’s biggest market outside of Germany. So if Europe decides to prevent Chinese EVs from coming into the market, China would do the same for European cars. This is why Chinese EVs are prioritizing Europe over US as a market. Plus the aforementioned fact that Europe wants to move off oil faster than US wants to.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      Those are all JVs, Tesla is the only foreign auto company in China that isn’t part of a 51-49 JV. Europe would probably require china to reciprocate if they wanted to start exporting cars made in China into Europe (since China didn’t import many cars made in Europe in the first place).
ramshanker 3y ago
India has equally priced Cars from domestic manufacturers. BYD is not going to gain meaningful market share here.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

20% of 2023 new vehicles sold globally last year were EVs. Trajectory going to go vertical very quickly. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39575172 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39575172 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39624636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39624636

TomK32 3y ago
Vertical? I doubt that, besides the literal meaning of the word. The first two months saw a YOY increase of new registrations in Germany but the share of EV did drop. People are stubborn and love the ease of filling up a petrol tank. There were more Ferraris registered than BYD, though that might change. In November the Austrian state of Oberösterreich did announce BYD being the winning bid for buying a fleet of electric vehicles, but in January it was instead decided to lease BMW and VW cars instead. Sadly still cars instead of a stronger investment into public transport.
- konschubert 3y ago
  Germany is not the world.
  - throwaway4good 3y ago
    They also abruptly cancelled their EV-subsidy which probably explains why the share of EVs is dropping.
    - konschubert 3y ago
      Yes, it’s likely a one time effect.
    - TomK32 3y ago
      Oberösterreich is not in Germany, but that contract was only for 35 cars.
      - radikalerludwig 3y ago
        > https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-end-e-vehicle-subsidy-programme-2023-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/german...
- Tade0 3y ago
  I think it's not mentioned often enough how difficult it currently is to find enough bus/tram drivers having the demographics that Europe in general does. Cars will remain a mode of transportation simply because there is a huge professional driver shortage.
  - TomK32 3y ago
    As long as the focus is wrong: Yes. In Germany the Pendlerpauschale (a tax rebate when you live a long distance for your workplace) costs the state 2.2 billion Euros a year, Diesel is still taxed less than petrol, another 8.5 billion and there's a tax privilege for company cars in a mix-private use which costs 1.8 billion. There's plenty of money to pay bus/tram driver more and build more lines. One thing most forget: Travel and transportation that is car-focused ignores those who can't yet/anymore operate a car. Better public transport allows you granny to travel easier as well as your children.
    - Tade0 3y ago
      I seem to have not make my point clear enough: You can't persuade people using money, at least not the kind of money cities can afford, as there are plenty of equally paid, less stressful and more interesting things to do with your life. In my city of 600k inhabitants there's a shortage of around 100 drivers - and that's just to service the lines that are currently operating. That's approximately 80k people not having their transportation needs met. The city is also cripplingly congested, but that's expected when you can't rely on public transportation. We need a solution that doesn't rely on demographics like they were in the 60s or even 80s.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

viraptor 3y ago

BYD is already relatively large in Australia, mainly because other manufacturers were aiming for the high end and complaining that people don't buy enough of their cars... Meanwhile BYD will sell as much as they can ship. (They got 14% of the market in ~1.5 years)

guidedlight 3y ago
BYD will reach their market space limit in Australia, they just seem to be eating Tesla’s momentum at the moment. Australia has a long history of brand snobbery when it comes to car manufacturers. Most new entrants into the Australian market don’t make it long term.

aurareturn 3y ago

US won’t ever lead in EVs because it’s the largest producer of oil in the world. The government has incentives to keep ICE as long as possible, thus, hard to be competitive in EVs over the long run. China meanwhile, is trying its hardest to remove its dependency on foreign oil. Europe’s incentives are more aligned with China’s.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
If you think that the USA producing oil gives it incentive to lead in ICE cars, I think you’ll be disappointed. The real outlier are the Japanese, they made bets on hydrogen that aren’t panning out, and so are really behind.
holoduke 3y ago
Europa more aligned with China? I don't think so. They are very much opposed to evs from China. Thinking about added import taxes to reduce the massive import of Chinese cars. Europe is also on old school oil continent in decline.
- csomar 3y ago
  > Europe’s ==incentives== are more aligned with China’s.
- aurareturn 3y ago
  Mercedes sells more cars in China than all of Europe. China is Audi’s biggest market. China is BMW’s biggest market outside of Germany. So if Europe decides to prevent Chinese EVs from coming into the market, China would do the same for European cars. This is why Chinese EVs are prioritizing Europe over US as a market. Plus the aforementioned fact that Europe wants to move off oil faster than US wants to.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Those are all JVs, Tesla is the only foreign auto company in China that isn’t part of a 51-49 JV. Europe would probably require china to reciprocate if they wanted to start exporting cars made in China into Europe (since China didn’t import many cars made in Europe in the first place).

ramshanker 3y ago

India has equally priced Cars from domestic manufacturers. BYD is not going to gain meaningful market share here.