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It's complicated because the forecasts of the system themselves can have some effect on the system they're forecasting. Because of people chasing alpha in the
by Enginerrrd 3y ago
It's complicated because the forecasts of the system themselves can have some effect on the system they're forecasting.
Because of people chasing alpha in the markets, any forecast with too much predictive power will tend to alter the system in ways that reduce its predictive power
- shrimp_emoji 3y agoIt's like if predicting the weather could hurt the weather's feelings.
- freeqaz 3y agoThis legit got a laugh out of me. I'll be cursing at the clouds the next time it rains!
- unglaublich 3y agoThat's the difference between an open loop and a closed loop.
- mitthrowaway2 3y agoDo you think these forecasts would have been accurate if they had been kept secret?
- ClumsyPilot 3y agoSo do the forecasts of climate scientists, and in many other fields, this not an excuse.
- Enginerrrd 3y agoThat is just not even close to a fair analogy.
- ClumsyPilot 3y agoYou are right; climate scientists have it worse. Economists do not have an established cabal of special interests working to undermine them at every turn. An entire political party opposed to anything they say. Public reception is a top concern for climate scientists.