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> Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi China is the odd man out in this list. China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. Official CCP policy is t

by kibwen 3y ago

> Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi China is the odd man out in this list. China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. Official CCP policy is that Russia stole Outer Manchuria from China in the aftermath of the Opium Wars of the 1850s. Russia is in fact the only country that still holds on to territory gained from the Qing via the Unequal Treaties. If China ever arms enough to attempt to retake Taiwan (which is highly plausible before the end of the decade; 2027 is the current aim), Outer Manchuria--including Vladivostok, Russia's most strategically important port--will be the next target. In the meantime, China is happy to hold Putin over the barrel and wring out Russian exports for bargain-bin prices. Russia is already a Chinese client state, even if it doesn't know it yet.

amou234 3y ago
Not sure if you saw my original posting, the thread you're writing in. China is definitely a friend of Russia. On top of what I mentioned, China is the top buyer of Russian oil, and thus its major financial partner. And China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high [1] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-relations-and-calls-for-strengthened-asia-pacific-role https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-...
- kibwen 3y ago
  > China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high Yes, and the scorpion promises the frog that it won't sting. Politicians can say what they please, the actions of the state speak louder: https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute-claims-1823439 https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chinese-bank-suspends-settlements-vladimir-putin-economy-1868954 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chin... China will continue economically plundering Russia so long as it's in their favor; the Western sanctions mean that Putin's options for oil exports are limited.
  - Aloha 3y ago
    Arguable destabilizing NATO has some significant advantages in whatever eventual aims China has towards Taiwan.
    - kibwen 3y ago
      China benefits from destabilizing the US, but NATO in general does not concern China, because, unlike Russia, China doesn't have its sights set on conquering Europe. If anything China would have preferred that Russia didn't invade Ukraine, because it's (slowly, slowly, slowly) putting the US on a war footing and eroding the advantage in inertia that China currently possesses over the US. Fortunately for China, Congress includes enough Russian assets that the resulting political deadlock seems likely to continue paralyzing the US, to China's benefit. If the US doesn't miraculously turn around its legislative (and, potentially soon, its executive) obstructionism, then Taiwan will probably fall to China, regardless of the intervention of the US and its allies (with the only hope for Taiwan being a sudden onset of incompetence from the Chinese military).
      - fragmede 3y ago
        > China benefits from destabilizing the US, Does it? A destabilized and broke US can't buy as many goods from China as a rich and powerful one, even if there are other advantages/disadvantages to be had.
        kibwen 3y ago
        The CCP purposefully subsidizes its own industries to the point of economic lunacy specifically to destroy the domestic industries of other countries, and thereby make them dependent on Chinese exports (yes, this is the famous venture capital model of "subsidize the service until we have a monopoly and then jack the prices to the moon", but applied to geopolitics). They have plenty of headroom (and a huge domestic market) to pivot away from an export-focused economy while still gripping the rest of the world by the balls for at least a few decades.
      - 3y ago
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  China and Russia haven’t fought a border clash since the 1990s. But they are mire frenemies than friends, both fear each other because they share such a huge border and don’t have a very peaceful past, but they can be friends when both are threatened by the USA.
khokhol 3y ago
2027 is the current aim That's what some say. But how do you know? Outer Manchuria - including Vladivostok - will be the next target. Very unlikely, even if Taiwan collapses quickly.
- kibwen 3y ago
  2027 is the target that both China and the US have projected for the invasion of Taiwan. Whether it will actually come to pass, who can say, but this is the timeframe that military planners are using to procure equipment today. > Very unlikely, even if Taiwan collapses quickly. Indeed, it won't be easy for China to take Taiwan. But modern US power projection is accustomed to using overwhelming force against weak adversaries; the US hasn't had a peer conflict in decades. I give the advantage to China because of geography: it will be easier for China to project power into Taiwan than it will be for the US to project power across the pacific. China knows that carriers and a known number of fixed airfields in allied nations are the weak links. And if China takes Taiwan it will result in the greatest outpouring of Chinese nationalist fervor in our lifetimes, and there's no chance that the newly-triumphant military will want to sit on its laurels when it could be asserting China's new status on the world stage by turning its revanchism towards Russia.
  - khokhol 3y ago
    2027 is the target that both China and the US have projected for the invasion of Taiwan The US has not released a definitive assessment. Jinping apparently did make some announcement that the PLA should be "ready to" invade Taiwan, but that's not the same as "is going to." And may just be propaganda for the PLA's 100th anniversary.
justinclift 3y ago
> China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. China seems to be manufacturing drones for Russia these days, which puts them in a very specific light.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Chinese arms and tech dealers are pretty open about who they trade with. Although I can’t imagine that they are trading without at least tacit approval from the CPC.
  - justinclift 3y ago
    > Chinese arms and tech dealers are pretty open about who they trade with. Are you meaning it should be excused or discounted? And yeah, it's impossible the CCP wouldn't be involved in some way. Those manufacturers are literally creating military weapons.

by kibwen 3y ago

amou234 3y ago

Not sure if you saw my original posting, the thread you're writing in. China is definitely a friend of Russia. On top of what I mentioned, China is the top buyer of Russian oil, and thus its major financial partner. And China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high [1] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-relations-and-calls-for-strengthened-asia-pacific-role https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-...

kibwen 3y ago
> China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high Yes, and the scorpion promises the frog that it won't sting. Politicians can say what they please, the actions of the state speak louder: https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute-claims-1823439 https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chinese-bank-suspends-settlements-vladimir-putin-economy-1868954 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chin... China will continue economically plundering Russia so long as it's in their favor; the Western sanctions mean that Putin's options for oil exports are limited.
- Aloha 3y ago
  Arguable destabilizing NATO has some significant advantages in whatever eventual aims China has towards Taiwan.
  - kibwen 3y ago
    China benefits from destabilizing the US, but NATO in general does not concern China, because, unlike Russia, China doesn't have its sights set on conquering Europe. If anything China would have preferred that Russia didn't invade Ukraine, because it's (slowly, slowly, slowly) putting the US on a war footing and eroding the advantage in inertia that China currently possesses over the US. Fortunately for China, Congress includes enough Russian assets that the resulting political deadlock seems likely to continue paralyzing the US, to China's benefit. If the US doesn't miraculously turn around its legislative (and, potentially soon, its executive) obstructionism, then Taiwan will probably fall to China, regardless of the intervention of the US and its allies (with the only hope for Taiwan being a sudden onset of incompetence from the Chinese military).
    - fragmede 3y ago
      > China benefits from destabilizing the US, Does it? A destabilized and broke US can't buy as many goods from China as a rich and powerful one, even if there are other advantages/disadvantages to be had.
      - kibwen 3y ago
        The CCP purposefully subsidizes its own industries to the point of economic lunacy specifically to destroy the domestic industries of other countries, and thereby make them dependent on Chinese exports (yes, this is the famous venture capital model of "subsidize the service until we have a monopoly and then jack the prices to the moon", but applied to geopolitics). They have plenty of headroom (and a huge domestic market) to pivot away from an export-focused economy while still gripping the rest of the world by the balls for at least a few decades.
    - 3y ago
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
China and Russia haven’t fought a border clash since the 1990s. But they are mire frenemies than friends, both fear each other because they share such a huge border and don’t have a very peaceful past, but they can be friends when both are threatened by the USA.

khokhol 3y ago

2027 is the current aim That's what some say. But how do you know? Outer Manchuria - including Vladivostok - will be the next target. Very unlikely, even if Taiwan collapses quickly.

kibwen 3y ago
2027 is the target that both China and the US have projected for the invasion of Taiwan. Whether it will actually come to pass, who can say, but this is the timeframe that military planners are using to procure equipment today. > Very unlikely, even if Taiwan collapses quickly. Indeed, it won't be easy for China to take Taiwan. But modern US power projection is accustomed to using overwhelming force against weak adversaries; the US hasn't had a peer conflict in decades. I give the advantage to China because of geography: it will be easier for China to project power into Taiwan than it will be for the US to project power across the pacific. China knows that carriers and a known number of fixed airfields in allied nations are the weak links. And if China takes Taiwan it will result in the greatest outpouring of Chinese nationalist fervor in our lifetimes, and there's no chance that the newly-triumphant military will want to sit on its laurels when it could be asserting China's new status on the world stage by turning its revanchism towards Russia.
- khokhol 3y ago
  2027 is the target that both China and the US have projected for the invasion of Taiwan The US has not released a definitive assessment. Jinping apparently did make some announcement that the PLA should be "ready to" invade Taiwan, but that's not the same as "is going to." And may just be propaganda for the PLA's 100th anniversary.

justinclift 3y ago

> China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. China seems to be manufacturing drones for Russia these days, which puts them in a very specific light.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Chinese arms and tech dealers are pretty open about who they trade with. Although I can’t imagine that they are trading without at least tacit approval from the CPC.
- justinclift 3y ago
  > Chinese arms and tech dealers are pretty open about who they trade with. Are you meaning it should be excused or discounted? And yeah, it's impossible the CCP wouldn't be involved in some way. Those manufacturers are literally creating military weapons.