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Fun historical fact, at the height of WW1, Germany was producing 12 million shells a month. Just in the preliminary bombardment at the Battle of the Somme the B

Fun historical fact, at the height of WW1, Germany was producing 12 million shells a month. Just in the preliminary bombardment at the Battle of the Somme the British fired 1.5 million shells. And now we're scrambling just to achieve one percent of the production we had a century ago. All that industrial base is long gone, of course. Contrary to complaints about war profiteering, artillery shell production is not a terribly attractive business. The equipment can't easily be repurposed, it's not terribly sophisticated so the technological barriers to entry are low, you have one single customer, and the faster and better you provide your product the quicker the war ends and you go out of business. It's like combining the low margins and drudgery of running a factory that stamps out spoons, but with the added risk the spoons might obliterate the plant if a single worker makes a mistake.

amou234 3y ago
I wonder if it's fair to call the hodgepodge of localized wars WW3 now? It's clear one alliance - Ukraine, Europe, US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Israel (recently aligned with Ukraine) - is fighting another alliance - Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi. With countries supplying technology, money, military stockpiles, and in some ways, foot on the ground. With India trying to play both sides, via purchasing Russian oil, but involved in Aukus. Wikipedia defines a world war as an international conflict that involves most or all of the world's major powers. Times magazine said "two major power blocs of countries fighting for dominance, with numerous nations on each side taking up arms against each other in more than one theater" [1] [1] https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/ https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/
- 48864w6ui 3y ago
  I'd think a world War needs to be hot, not proxy.
  - amou234 3y ago
    is the war still proxy, if the participants send machines (drones, tanks, missile systems) to the battlefields on each side instead of humans? Maybe this is the first post-human world war
- kibwen 3y ago
  > Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi China is the odd man out in this list. China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. Official CCP policy is that Russia stole Outer Manchuria from China in the aftermath of the Opium Wars of the 1850s. Russia is in fact the only country that still holds on to territory gained from the Qing via the Unequal Treaties. If China ever arms enough to attempt to retake Taiwan (which is highly plausible before the end of the decade; 2027 is the current aim), Outer Manchuria--including Vladivostok, Russia's most strategically important port--will be the next target. In the meantime, China is happy to hold Putin over the barrel and wring out Russian exports for bargain-bin prices. Russia is already a Chinese client state, even if it doesn't know it yet.
  - amou234 3y ago
    Not sure if you saw my original posting, the thread you're writing in. China is definitely a friend of Russia. On top of what I mentioned, China is the top buyer of Russian oil, and thus its major financial partner. And China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high [1] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-relations-and-calls-for-strengthened-asia-pacific-role https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-...
    - kibwen 3y ago
      > China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high Yes, and the scorpion promises the frog that it won't sting. Politicians can say what they please, the actions of the state speak louder: https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute-claims-1823439 https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chinese-bank-suspends-settlements-vladimir-putin-economy-1868954 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chin... China will continue economically plundering Russia so long as it's in their favor; the Western sanctions mean that Putin's options for oil exports are limited.
      - Aloha 3y ago
        Arguable destabilizing NATO has some significant advantages in whatever eventual aims China has towards Taiwan.
- silverquiet 3y ago
  This sort of feels like the "how do we define a recession" debate. You can establish some guidelines, but I think there's also a sort of "I'll know it when I see it" qualitative type judgement too. I'd say if you can still make lots of money writing apps for scheduling dog massages and aren't persuaded to go pick up a rifle or work an ammunition press, we're still a ways off from a real world war.
  - fragmede 3y ago
    Ukraine has implemented a draft, but software developer is still a highly paid position there. Many other countries have compulsory military service. So that really depends on your perspective. The US is different due to its power and geography. The draft in the US was hugely unpopular, so is likely but going to happen again, at which point, by that definition, we'll never get there. But, like you said, "I'll know it when I see it."
- ijidak 3y ago
  The world wars were also about Total War. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war We definitely seem to be in a build up to a possible total world war. But this might be more like Hitler's invasion of Poland than full blown world war. As in the pre-skirmishes. Perhaps the prelude to world war, but not yet full blown...
- simpletone 3y ago
  > I wonder if it's fair to call the hodgepodge of localized wars WW3 now? No. It would take direct nuclear strikes between major powers and hundreds of millions in casualties for anything to be called ww3. Would you call the korean war ww3? How about the vietnam war? Or any of the dozens of wars since ww2? > It's clear one alliance - Ukraine, Europe, US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Israel (recently aligned with Ukraine) The only alliance is between the US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ. Countries with shared linguistic, cultural, religious and historical heritage. Israel is more of an enemy than an ally as they sell stolen tech to china and russia and are culturally, historically and religiously alien to the US and the anglosphere. Also, you might want to read the history of what the US did to japan, korea, taiwan, philippines, etc if you think that 'alliance' really exists. Even better, you might want to read the history of their rivalries between each other. There is a reason why we are moving chip production away from taiwan and ship building from sk and japan. > Times magazine said "two major power blocs of countries fighting for dominance Never take nonsense you read in media seriously.
Simplicitas 3y ago
Wars between developed states, who can more easily afford this stuff, are gradually becoming (have become?) a thing of past, and thank goodness.
_visgean 3y ago
depends on the type of shell, e.g. this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur is probably a bit sofisticated..
simpletone 3y ago
> you have one single customer Who has no credit limit and is willing to spend like their life depends on it. That's what makes war profiteering so profitable.

amou234 3y ago

I wonder if it's fair to call the hodgepodge of localized wars WW3 now? It's clear one alliance - Ukraine, Europe, US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Israel (recently aligned with Ukraine) - is fighting another alliance - Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi. With countries supplying technology, money, military stockpiles, and in some ways, foot on the ground. With India trying to play both sides, via purchasing Russian oil, but involved in Aukus. Wikipedia defines a world war as an international conflict that involves most or all of the world's major powers. Times magazine said "two major power blocs of countries fighting for dominance, with numerous nations on each side taking up arms against each other in more than one theater" [1] [1] https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/ https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/

48864w6ui 3y ago
I'd think a world War needs to be hot, not proxy.
- amou234 3y ago
  is the war still proxy, if the participants send machines (drones, tanks, missile systems) to the battlefields on each side instead of humans? Maybe this is the first post-human world war
kibwen 3y ago
> Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Houthi China is the odd man out in this list. China is emphatically not a friend of Russia. Official CCP policy is that Russia stole Outer Manchuria from China in the aftermath of the Opium Wars of the 1850s. Russia is in fact the only country that still holds on to territory gained from the Qing via the Unequal Treaties. If China ever arms enough to attempt to retake Taiwan (which is highly plausible before the end of the decade; 2027 is the current aim), Outer Manchuria--including Vladivostok, Russia's most strategically important port--will be the next target. In the meantime, China is happy to hold Putin over the barrel and wring out Russian exports for bargain-bin prices. Russia is already a Chinese client state, even if it doesn't know it yet.
- amou234 3y ago
  Not sure if you saw my original posting, the thread you're writing in. China is definitely a friend of Russia. On top of what I mentioned, China is the top buyer of Russian oil, and thus its major financial partner. And China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high [1] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-relations-and-calls-for-strengthened-asia-pacific-role https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/china-lauds-russia-...
  - kibwen 3y ago
    > China just recently said relations with Moscow are at an historic high Yes, and the scorpion promises the frog that it won't sting. Politicians can say what they please, the actions of the state speak louder: https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute-claims-1823439 https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-borders-territory-dispute... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chinese-bank-suspends-settlements-vladimir-putin-economy-1868954 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-andrey-rudenko-responds-chin... China will continue economically plundering Russia so long as it's in their favor; the Western sanctions mean that Putin's options for oil exports are limited.
    - Aloha 3y ago
      Arguable destabilizing NATO has some significant advantages in whatever eventual aims China has towards Taiwan.
silverquiet 3y ago
This sort of feels like the "how do we define a recession" debate. You can establish some guidelines, but I think there's also a sort of "I'll know it when I see it" qualitative type judgement too. I'd say if you can still make lots of money writing apps for scheduling dog massages and aren't persuaded to go pick up a rifle or work an ammunition press, we're still a ways off from a real world war.
- fragmede 3y ago
  Ukraine has implemented a draft, but software developer is still a highly paid position there. Many other countries have compulsory military service. So that really depends on your perspective. The US is different due to its power and geography. The draft in the US was hugely unpopular, so is likely but going to happen again, at which point, by that definition, we'll never get there. But, like you said, "I'll know it when I see it."
ijidak 3y ago
The world wars were also about Total War. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_war We definitely seem to be in a build up to a possible total world war. But this might be more like Hitler's invasion of Poland than full blown world war. As in the pre-skirmishes. Perhaps the prelude to world war, but not yet full blown...
simpletone 3y ago
> I wonder if it's fair to call the hodgepodge of localized wars WW3 now? No. It would take direct nuclear strikes between major powers and hundreds of millions in casualties for anything to be called ww3. Would you call the korean war ww3? How about the vietnam war? Or any of the dozens of wars since ww2? > It's clear one alliance - Ukraine, Europe, US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, Canada, Israel (recently aligned with Ukraine) The only alliance is between the US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ. Countries with shared linguistic, cultural, religious and historical heritage. Israel is more of an enemy than an ally as they sell stolen tech to china and russia and are culturally, historically and religiously alien to the US and the anglosphere. Also, you might want to read the history of what the US did to japan, korea, taiwan, philippines, etc if you think that 'alliance' really exists. Even better, you might want to read the history of their rivalries between each other. There is a reason why we are moving chip production away from taiwan and ship building from sk and japan. > Times magazine said "two major power blocs of countries fighting for dominance Never take nonsense you read in media seriously.

Simplicitas 3y ago

Wars between developed states, who can more easily afford this stuff, are gradually becoming (have become?) a thing of past, and thank goodness.

_visgean 3y ago

depends on the type of shell, e.g. this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur is probably a bit sofisticated..

simpletone 3y ago

> you have one single customer Who has no credit limit and is willing to spend like their life depends on it. That's what makes war profiteering so profitable.