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The scenario is different compared to Catalonia, the Catalonia scenario is more like the Scottish independence referendum, a new country would be created in tha

The scenario is different compared to Catalonia, the Catalonia scenario is more like the Scottish independence referendum, a new country would be created in that scenario. The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Reunion can only happen by mutual consent of all people in Ireland, and the document demands two simultaneous referenda to occur to fulfil this, one in NI, the other in ROI. The referendum in NI, can be called at any time the UK’s Secretary of State for NI, deems that it would be likely that it would prove to be successful. This stance is shared by the Tories and Labour in Westminster. Unlike Catalonia, there is also likely to be wider support for reunion from other important third parties - namely the US and EU - The United States, both from her people and government, proving to be key mediators in the Good Friday negotiations, and subsequent important negotiations like the Richard Haass talks. The EU, prior to the UK’s withdrawal from it, funded large regeneration and reconciliation projects within NI. I believe this would continue forward post reunification.

jakderrida 3y ago
> The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Which, despite what most people think, isn't the utopian goal of the Catholics there, afaik. More like something they might settle for, if it's pragmatic and generally beneficial to the people. I've been told it's not exactly the golden ticket to the promised land outsiders seem to think it is.
bruce511 3y ago
Some years ago I predicted to a Northern Irish acquaintance that Ireland would unify by 2035. I based this on various things, but primarily because it's the "obvious thing to do". It brings NI into the EU, and that would appear to be a long-term good. Seeing the UK economy suffer from Brexit, the treatment of NI by Westminster (who mostly pretend if doesn't exist anyway), and ultimately the aging of the UK support in NI, the end result is "obvious". Ultimately its hard to predict time lines with geo-politics, but I expect to see real movement in this direction over the next decade.
- disgruntledphd2 3y ago
  It's an identity thing rather than an economic thing so predictions based on the economy are unlikely to prove correct.
  - biorach 3y ago
    It will play a role tho

jakderrida 3y ago

> The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Which, despite what most people think, isn't the utopian goal of the Catholics there, afaik. More like something they might settle for, if it's pragmatic and generally beneficial to the people. I've been told it's not exactly the golden ticket to the promised land outsiders seem to think it is.

bruce511 3y ago

Some years ago I predicted to a Northern Irish acquaintance that Ireland would unify by 2035. I based this on various things, but primarily because it's the "obvious thing to do". It brings NI into the EU, and that would appear to be a long-term good. Seeing the UK economy suffer from Brexit, the treatment of NI by Westminster (who mostly pretend if doesn't exist anyway), and ultimately the aging of the UK support in NI, the end result is "obvious". Ultimately its hard to predict time lines with geo-politics, but I expect to see real movement in this direction over the next decade.

disgruntledphd2 3y ago
It's an identity thing rather than an economic thing so predictions based on the economy are unlikely to prove correct.
- biorach 3y ago
  It will play a role tho