6 ms·

If Northern Ireland did vote to leave the UK, what would happen? Would the UK actually let them leave? Would the EU allow it? When Catalonia voted for independ

If Northern Ireland did vote to leave the UK, what would happen? Would the UK actually let them leave? Would the EU allow it? When Catalonia voted for independence from Spain, Spain arrested the people who organized the vote, and even the EU said they would not accept an independent Catalonia. Despite police violence meant to disrupt the vote, there was about 42 percent voter turnout, and about 90 percent voted for secession. Nonetheless, Catalonia is still part of Spain.

ivandenysov 3y ago
I guess one big difference is that Northern Ireland would probably vote to join Ireland instead of just being independent from the UK. Not sure if that could impact EU’s stance. ‘Getting’ new territories from a non-EU country sounds even worse than allowing a chunk of a member state to become an independent country.
- wkat4242 3y ago
  Yeah almost nobody there wants independence. It's either joining Ireland or staying in the UK. Also if the UK permits the vote as part of the good Friday agreement the EU won't have an issue with it. Don't forget they also had no issue with the Scottish independence referendum when the UK was still in the EU. There was a bit of doubt whether an independent Scotland could join the EU however, which I believe was mostly why they voted to remain part of the UK (ironically due to the Brexit vote that came after they had to leave the EU anyway, they probably would have been able to stay in the EU if they had voted to leave the UK!) But if NI joins Ireland there won't be any issue from the EU side I think. The situation will be very different to Catalonia.
kennywinker 3y ago
I believe as part of the Good Friday agreement, england has committed to permitting irish unification if a majority supports it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement Now, would they find a way to contest any vote to unify? Maybe
- adastra22 3y ago
  Just a simple majority? I hope that the Brexit disaster has shown that it is essential such decisions have a supermajority backing.
  - jakderrida 3y ago
    > I hope that the Brexit disaster has shown that it is essential such decisions have a supermajority backing. LMAO! That's a great freaking point! Obviously, simple majorities are perfect recipes for the shitshow they're currently in.
  - nixass 3y ago
    are you really comparing reunification of ireland with brexit?
    - behringer 3y ago
      Yes. Why not?
  - lucubratory 3y ago
    Oh that's a really good point, that might be the logic they use to try to deny the Irish people their independence.
    - adastra22 3y ago
      Or it might avoid a disastrous reversion to the violence of the Troubles.
      - chgs 3y ago
        There seems to be this American view that the U.K. wants NI. Nobody wants NI, it’s just that any change from the Good Friday status quo is a disaster for one side or another, both of whom have used violence for their cause. Democracy is shit when 40% of your country have major everlasting change thrust upon them against their will.
Tsiklon 3y ago
The scenario is different compared to Catalonia, the Catalonia scenario is more like the Scottish independence referendum, a new country would be created in that scenario. The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Reunion can only happen by mutual consent of all people in Ireland, and the document demands two simultaneous referenda to occur to fulfil this, one in NI, the other in ROI. The referendum in NI, can be called at any time the UK’s Secretary of State for NI, deems that it would be likely that it would prove to be successful. This stance is shared by the Tories and Labour in Westminster. Unlike Catalonia, there is also likely to be wider support for reunion from other important third parties - namely the US and EU - The United States, both from her people and government, proving to be key mediators in the Good Friday negotiations, and subsequent important negotiations like the Richard Haass talks. The EU, prior to the UK’s withdrawal from it, funded large regeneration and reconciliation projects within NI. I believe this would continue forward post reunification.
- jakderrida 3y ago
  > The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Which, despite what most people think, isn't the utopian goal of the Catholics there, afaik. More like something they might settle for, if it's pragmatic and generally beneficial to the people. I've been told it's not exactly the golden ticket to the promised land outsiders seem to think it is.
- bruce511 3y ago
  Some years ago I predicted to a Northern Irish acquaintance that Ireland would unify by 2035. I based this on various things, but primarily because it's the "obvious thing to do". It brings NI into the EU, and that would appear to be a long-term good. Seeing the UK economy suffer from Brexit, the treatment of NI by Westminster (who mostly pretend if doesn't exist anyway), and ultimately the aging of the UK support in NI, the end result is "obvious". Ultimately its hard to predict time lines with geo-politics, but I expect to see real movement in this direction over the next decade.
  - 3y ago
pillusmany 3y ago
[flagged]
bradley13 3y ago
Given a contiguous region large enough to make sense, which Catalonia clearly is, secession should be an option. Denying this is just politicians protecting each other's power.
chgs 3y ago
It course it would. Unlike Spain the U.K. population is happy with the principle of self determinism (Chagos islands are somewhat special as is an American base with no population for the last 50 years, historical claims to land are somewhat different) Realpolitik sometimes gets in the way of this - why doesn’t the US recognise Taiwan as a country? Why doesn’t Brazil recognise Kosovo? If Scottish people want to be independent, or northern Irish, or Cornish, or Yorkshire, or Falklands, or Gibraltar, or Ceuta, or Catalonia, or Crimea, or Texas, or Kosovo. or North Cyprus, then that’s upto the people who live there. Northern Ireland had a referendum and one side decided as they wouldn’t win they wouldn’t take part. Scotland had a referendum too and decided to stay. There’s been no real change in opinion in Scotland, despite the travesty of the EU vote. The problem with NI, Scotland and the EU is the opinions is roughly 50/50, whatever you do half the country are losses off. In reality if the people of Northern Ireland wanted independence they would only want it if they could join Ireland, and joining Ireland would require the Irish government to accept a basket case of an economy, not to mention the continued partisan issues that have plagued the country for centuries, nobody wants change, but as predicted in Trek, an act of terror (brexit) may well lead to it as brexit changed the status quo. Catalonia wanted complete independence, although as you said though, less than 40% of the adult population wanted it in that vote. Certainly they should be allowed if the majority want it, as long as Spanish citizenship is not removed from any resident who doesn’t want it removed and every resident got Catalonia citizenship as well if they wanted it (my view would be you would only grant independence if over half the adult population agreed to forfeit their Spanish citizenship). Catalonia would then be free to apply for EU candidate status as a free and independent country, just like Scotland. Spain would not want that, so Catalonia would have to be a small independent country and start from scratch. Spain doesn’t recognise Kosovo either. Their view is that territory is more important than self determination. See their view on Gibraltar. Spain would thus be unlikely to recognise an independent Scotland or Northern Ireland, and thus EU membership as an independent country would be out. So with Ireland not wanting the economic drain of the north (only 1 in 8 Irish Republic citizens want unification if United Ireland had to pay), Spain not wanting any independence move to succeed, Northern Ireland is stuck in the continued compromise it has been since 1997. Brexit of course massively damaged everything, and far more want the U.K. to join the EU than want say Catalonian independence, but we are where we are.

ivandenysov 3y ago

I guess one big difference is that Northern Ireland would probably vote to join Ireland instead of just being independent from the UK. Not sure if that could impact EU’s stance. ‘Getting’ new territories from a non-EU country sounds even worse than allowing a chunk of a member state to become an independent country.

wkat4242 3y ago
Yeah almost nobody there wants independence. It's either joining Ireland or staying in the UK. Also if the UK permits the vote as part of the good Friday agreement the EU won't have an issue with it. Don't forget they also had no issue with the Scottish independence referendum when the UK was still in the EU. There was a bit of doubt whether an independent Scotland could join the EU however, which I believe was mostly why they voted to remain part of the UK (ironically due to the Brexit vote that came after they had to leave the EU anyway, they probably would have been able to stay in the EU if they had voted to leave the UK!) But if NI joins Ireland there won't be any issue from the EU side I think. The situation will be very different to Catalonia.

kennywinker 3y ago

I believe as part of the Good Friday agreement, england has committed to permitting irish unification if a majority supports it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement Now, would they find a way to contest any vote to unify? Maybe

adastra22 3y ago
Just a simple majority? I hope that the Brexit disaster has shown that it is essential such decisions have a supermajority backing.
- jakderrida 3y ago
  > I hope that the Brexit disaster has shown that it is essential such decisions have a supermajority backing. LMAO! That's a great freaking point! Obviously, simple majorities are perfect recipes for the shitshow they're currently in.
- nixass 3y ago
  are you really comparing reunification of ireland with brexit?
  - behringer 3y ago
    Yes. Why not?
- lucubratory 3y ago
  Oh that's a really good point, that might be the logic they use to try to deny the Irish people their independence.
  - adastra22 3y ago
    Or it might avoid a disastrous reversion to the violence of the Troubles.
    - chgs 3y ago
      There seems to be this American view that the U.K. wants NI. Nobody wants NI, it’s just that any change from the Good Friday status quo is a disaster for one side or another, both of whom have used violence for their cause. Democracy is shit when 40% of your country have major everlasting change thrust upon them against their will.

Tsiklon 3y ago

The scenario is different compared to Catalonia, the Catalonia scenario is more like the Scottish independence referendum, a new country would be created in that scenario. The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Reunion can only happen by mutual consent of all people in Ireland, and the document demands two simultaneous referenda to occur to fulfil this, one in NI, the other in ROI. The referendum in NI, can be called at any time the UK’s Secretary of State for NI, deems that it would be likely that it would prove to be successful. This stance is shared by the Tories and Labour in Westminster. Unlike Catalonia, there is also likely to be wider support for reunion from other important third parties - namely the US and EU - The United States, both from her people and government, proving to be key mediators in the Good Friday negotiations, and subsequent important negotiations like the Richard Haass talks. The EU, prior to the UK’s withdrawal from it, funded large regeneration and reconciliation projects within NI. I believe this would continue forward post reunification.

jakderrida 3y ago
> The Good Friday agreement permits Northern Ireland to leave the UK and to join the ROI, there is no path to independence here. Which, despite what most people think, isn't the utopian goal of the Catholics there, afaik. More like something they might settle for, if it's pragmatic and generally beneficial to the people. I've been told it's not exactly the golden ticket to the promised land outsiders seem to think it is.
bruce511 3y ago
Some years ago I predicted to a Northern Irish acquaintance that Ireland would unify by 2035. I based this on various things, but primarily because it's the "obvious thing to do". It brings NI into the EU, and that would appear to be a long-term good. Seeing the UK economy suffer from Brexit, the treatment of NI by Westminster (who mostly pretend if doesn't exist anyway), and ultimately the aging of the UK support in NI, the end result is "obvious". Ultimately its hard to predict time lines with geo-politics, but I expect to see real movement in this direction over the next decade.
- 3y ago

pillusmany 3y ago

[flagged]

bradley13 3y ago

Given a contiguous region large enough to make sense, which Catalonia clearly is, secession should be an option. Denying this is just politicians protecting each other's power.

chgs 3y ago

It course it would. Unlike Spain the U.K. population is happy with the principle of self determinism (Chagos islands are somewhat special as is an American base with no population for the last 50 years, historical claims to land are somewhat different) Realpolitik sometimes gets in the way of this - why doesn’t the US recognise Taiwan as a country? Why doesn’t Brazil recognise Kosovo? If Scottish people want to be independent, or northern Irish, or Cornish, or Yorkshire, or Falklands, or Gibraltar, or Ceuta, or Catalonia, or Crimea, or Texas, or Kosovo. or North Cyprus, then that’s upto the people who live there. Northern Ireland had a referendum and one side decided as they wouldn’t win they wouldn’t take part. Scotland had a referendum too and decided to stay. There’s been no real change in opinion in Scotland, despite the travesty of the EU vote. The problem with NI, Scotland and the EU is the opinions is roughly 50/50, whatever you do half the country are losses off. In reality if the people of Northern Ireland wanted independence they would only want it if they could join Ireland, and joining Ireland would require the Irish government to accept a basket case of an economy, not to mention the continued partisan issues that have plagued the country for centuries, nobody wants change, but as predicted in Trek, an act of terror (brexit) may well lead to it as brexit changed the status quo. Catalonia wanted complete independence, although as you said though, less than 40% of the adult population wanted it in that vote. Certainly they should be allowed if the majority want it, as long as Spanish citizenship is not removed from any resident who doesn’t want it removed and every resident got Catalonia citizenship as well if they wanted it (my view would be you would only grant independence if over half the adult population agreed to forfeit their Spanish citizenship). Catalonia would then be free to apply for EU candidate status as a free and independent country, just like Scotland. Spain would not want that, so Catalonia would have to be a small independent country and start from scratch. Spain doesn’t recognise Kosovo either. Their view is that territory is more important than self determination. See their view on Gibraltar. Spain would thus be unlikely to recognise an independent Scotland or Northern Ireland, and thus EU membership as an independent country would be out. So with Ireland not wanting the economic drain of the north (only 1 in 8 Irish Republic citizens want unification if United Ireland had to pay), Spain not wanting any independence move to succeed, Northern Ireland is stuck in the continued compromise it has been since 1997. Brexit of course massively damaged everything, and far more want the U.K. to join the EU than want say Catalonian independence, but we are where we are.