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In 2022, the world bought 99.8 million barrels per day. In 2023, we bought 102.4. The IEA data says explicitly that demand is growing. There is no debate about

In 2022, the world bought 99.8 million barrels per day. In 2023, we bought 102.4. The IEA data says explicitly that demand is growing. There is no debate about that. But I get your point re: the word "curbed". The word is mathematically vague and means effectively "restrained". Which doesn't tell us if that's a reduction of the metric itself or a simply a reduction in the rate of increase (the second derivative of the metric). Or the relative rate of increase per capita. So depending on your interpretation, you may or may not believe emissions are 'curbed' My take is that the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about the rate, or which specific countries are curbing what. The only thing that matters from a climate perspective is the absolute global tonnage of greenhouse gas emissions. Unless we reduce that, we're losing the climate fight. I'm increasingly frustrated with our tendency to chase after irrelevant metrics and claim success. I'm not celebrating until we actually reduce emissions.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
There is a lot of confusion between position, velocity, and acceleration when discussing these things. Prices have decreased is different from price growth has decreased, and even the rate at which prices are growing has decreased. > My take is that the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about the rate, or which specific countries are curbing what. The atmosphere doesn't care period. In the long run, the Earth will recover from whatever we throw at it, humanity just might go extinct earlier than expected. But at the same time, you can't tell people in the developing world that their lifestyle isn't allowed to improve because we need to save the planet. Some fairness is needed. So emissions are going to get worse before they get better, and hopefully they start getting better soon enough.
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  > you can't tell people in the developing world that their lifestyle isn't allowed to improve because we need to save the planet. This is nonsense. It's easier for developing countries to adopt renewables because they don't have to compete against existing infrastructure. When the US has a coal-fired power plant that was built 30+ years ago, the capital expenditure is paid off and it's only paying for operations and fuel, and renewables are still out-competing them. It also makes it easier to build because of different expectations. In the US if you wanted to shut down existing natural gas peaker plants in favor of renewables you'd see objections or demands to back them up with something expensive for times of low generation. In a developing country, building enough in renewables to power 60% of the homes 80% of the time is a bigger win than spending the same money to build enough fossil fuels to power 40% of the homes 100% of the time, and then you can add the expensive reliability technology at the end as the country becomes more developed. When that's the case it makes no sense to be building new fossil fuel power plants in countries where they don't already exist. They have to pay construction costs, and can be expected to be even more out-competed in the future, implying that the construction cost will be a waste of that country's finite resources. The countries doing it are doing it for political reasons, e.g. they have a domestic fossil fuel industry to subsidize, which is not a sympathetic excuse.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    > This is nonsense. It's easier for developing countries to adopt renewables because they don't have to compete against existing infrastructure. When the US has a coal-fired power plant that was built 30+ years ago, the capital expenditure is paid off and it's only paying for operations and fuel, and renewables are still out-competing them. Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? > In a developing country, building enough in renewables to power 60% of the homes 80% of the time is a bigger win than spending the same money to build enough fossil fuels to power 40% of the homes 100% of the time, and then you can add the expensive reliability technology at the end as the country becomes more developed. Sure you can spend a few 100 billion to build a giant dam, and that might give you something, but all your industry and water is in the east, while all your solar and wind resources are a few thousand miles away. Heck, you still need natural gas for heating, or you might use it for cars (like Thailand) because you have gas but not oil. You still can't go renewable alone with the investment they require, and maybe you will be able to, but not yet. > The countries doing it are doing it for political reasons, e.g. they have a domestic fossil fuel industry to subsidize, which is not a sympathetic excuse. That's just downright cynical. There might be some of that in the middle east, but most countries aren't so resource rich (with the exception of Australia and Russia) that this is going to be a dominating factor.
    - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
      > Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? Precisely. > all your industry and water is in the east, while all your solar and wind resources are a few thousand miles away. There are only a small handful of countries that even have an "a few thousand miles away" in the same country. The large majority of developing countries are rather near the equator and can put solar anywhere. > Heck, you still need natural gas for heating In early-stage developing countries, heating is generally wood because they don't have the infrastructure to distribute anything else. In late-state developing countries, you put a nuclear reactor in the city and use cogeneration for heat. This is one of the other advantages of the infrastructure not being built yet. > you might use it for cars (like Thailand) because you have gas but not oil. This is soon going to be irrelevant. The bulk of cars in developing countries are the used cars from developed ones, so as developed countries transition to EVs, everybody does. Which is all the more reason to build renewable generation now, because charging those batteries at the right time of day can smooth out the load but also requires more generation, and that's going to be needed not a lot of years from now. > You still can't go renewable alone with the investment they require Renewables are cheaper than the operating cost for already paid off coal-fired power plants, much less new ones. If you can't afford to build renewables then how can you afford to build something even more expensive? > There might be some of that in the middle east, but most countries aren't so resource rich (with the exception of Australia and Russia) that this is going to be a dominating factor. > Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? One of these seems to contradict the other. Also notice how the countries you're trying to make an exception out of are some of the largest CO2 emitters. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Australia all have per-capita CO2 emissions higher than most of Western Europe. Meanwhile China is the highest on total CO2 emissions of any country in the world by a factor of two, accounting for almost a third of global CO2 emissions and higher emissions per capita than the UK or France.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

There is a lot of confusion between position, velocity, and acceleration when discussing these things. Prices have decreased is different from price growth has decreased, and even the rate at which prices are growing has decreased. > My take is that the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about the rate, or which specific countries are curbing what. The atmosphere doesn't care period. In the long run, the Earth will recover from whatever we throw at it, humanity just might go extinct earlier than expected. But at the same time, you can't tell people in the developing world that their lifestyle isn't allowed to improve because we need to save the planet. Some fairness is needed. So emissions are going to get worse before they get better, and hopefully they start getting better soon enough.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> you can't tell people in the developing world that their lifestyle isn't allowed to improve because we need to save the planet. This is nonsense. It's easier for developing countries to adopt renewables because they don't have to compete against existing infrastructure. When the US has a coal-fired power plant that was built 30+ years ago, the capital expenditure is paid off and it's only paying for operations and fuel, and renewables are still out-competing them. It also makes it easier to build because of different expectations. In the US if you wanted to shut down existing natural gas peaker plants in favor of renewables you'd see objections or demands to back them up with something expensive for times of low generation. In a developing country, building enough in renewables to power 60% of the homes 80% of the time is a bigger win than spending the same money to build enough fossil fuels to power 40% of the homes 100% of the time, and then you can add the expensive reliability technology at the end as the country becomes more developed. When that's the case it makes no sense to be building new fossil fuel power plants in countries where they don't already exist. They have to pay construction costs, and can be expected to be even more out-competed in the future, implying that the construction cost will be a waste of that country's finite resources. The countries doing it are doing it for political reasons, e.g. they have a domestic fossil fuel industry to subsidize, which is not a sympathetic excuse.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  > This is nonsense. It's easier for developing countries to adopt renewables because they don't have to compete against existing infrastructure. When the US has a coal-fired power plant that was built 30+ years ago, the capital expenditure is paid off and it's only paying for operations and fuel, and renewables are still out-competing them. Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? > In a developing country, building enough in renewables to power 60% of the homes 80% of the time is a bigger win than spending the same money to build enough fossil fuels to power 40% of the homes 100% of the time, and then you can add the expensive reliability technology at the end as the country becomes more developed. Sure you can spend a few 100 billion to build a giant dam, and that might give you something, but all your industry and water is in the east, while all your solar and wind resources are a few thousand miles away. Heck, you still need natural gas for heating, or you might use it for cars (like Thailand) because you have gas but not oil. You still can't go renewable alone with the investment they require, and maybe you will be able to, but not yet. > The countries doing it are doing it for political reasons, e.g. they have a domestic fossil fuel industry to subsidize, which is not a sympathetic excuse. That's just downright cynical. There might be some of that in the middle east, but most countries aren't so resource rich (with the exception of Australia and Russia) that this is going to be a dominating factor.
  - AnthonyMouse 3y ago
    > Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? Precisely. > all your industry and water is in the east, while all your solar and wind resources are a few thousand miles away. There are only a small handful of countries that even have an "a few thousand miles away" in the same country. The large majority of developing countries are rather near the equator and can put solar anywhere. > Heck, you still need natural gas for heating In early-stage developing countries, heating is generally wood because they don't have the infrastructure to distribute anything else. In late-state developing countries, you put a nuclear reactor in the city and use cogeneration for heat. This is one of the other advantages of the infrastructure not being built yet. > you might use it for cars (like Thailand) because you have gas but not oil. This is soon going to be irrelevant. The bulk of cars in developing countries are the used cars from developed ones, so as developed countries transition to EVs, everybody does. Which is all the more reason to build renewable generation now, because charging those batteries at the right time of day can smooth out the load but also requires more generation, and that's going to be needed not a lot of years from now. > You still can't go renewable alone with the investment they require Renewables are cheaper than the operating cost for already paid off coal-fired power plants, much less new ones. If you can't afford to build renewables then how can you afford to build something even more expensive? > There might be some of that in the middle east, but most countries aren't so resource rich (with the exception of Australia and Russia) that this is going to be a dominating factor. > Are you going to tell Chinese that they can't take advantage of their coal resources because they were 30 years too late in their development? One of these seems to contradict the other. Also notice how the countries you're trying to make an exception out of are some of the largest CO2 emitters. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Australia all have per-capita CO2 emissions higher than most of Western Europe. Meanwhile China is the highest on total CO2 emissions of any country in the world by a factor of two, accounting for almost a third of global CO2 emissions and higher emissions per capita than the UK or France.