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Sure, in the same way that we'll all stop driving cass and have self driving cars any day now. What you just described is more of a tech lead than a "manager",

Sure, in the same way that we'll all stop driving cass and have self driving cars any day now. What you just described is more of a tech lead than a "manager", and that's really the point. Reality that's not encoded in pure language is a fundamental limit of LLMs; they're probably never going to correctly diagnose a hardware bug based on misbehaving software, for example, because that's a world where everything that they are (ingestion material, available documentation) and reality conflict and an LLM has very little ability to detect and overcome such a problem. Those "reality vs the text" impedance mismatches mean that LLMs are probably never going to escape human oversight. Which means we'll all probably have as many low quality (occasionally brilliant) fresh grads as we like, but taking the jobs of experts seems unlikely. The end of programming looks like lots of work for programmers.

bongodongobob 3y ago
We have self driving cars.
- goatlover 3y ago
  So why are people still driving cars? Why are there still Uber, delivery and truck drivers? 99.99% of vehicles are driven by humans. It's like saying we have flying cars. Sure, working prototypes have existed for some time now. There were (are?) companies making them. But it makes no real world difference. In the context of "no more programming", it makes no difference if some fancy AI model can in theory replace programmers, if they don't actually end up doing that on any real scale.
  - Animats 3y ago
    > So why are people still driving cars? Because it costs Waymo about US$200,000 per car, not including the operating and maintenance staff. It will get cheaper.
  - wruza 3y ago
    Because they are poor, also because of regulations crippling fsd (for better or worse).
    - scruple 3y ago
      What are the regulations preventing FSD?
      - vrighter 3y ago
        stuff like needing to take responsibility and accountability, if you are also taking control. Ewww, what a horrible concept that stifles innovation!
      - wruza 3y ago
        E.g. keep your hands on a wheel, be present and in a driver's seat. Anything unlike getting a cab.
  - p1esk 3y ago
    You do realize the first ever decent AI has appeared less than a year ago? It’s available to anyone today for $20/mo, and it will get better and better every year. What we have now was considered pure science fiction just five years ago, a hypothetical technology - decades away at best. Why are people still driving cars? Because the autonomous driving technology wasn’t good until very recently. It has improved a lot in just the last few years, and you can already see self driving cars operating commercially in several cities. Again, it will get better every year, and as it gets better it will spread everywhere. It’s true that flying cars exist but haven’t become popular or widespread. I’m not entirely sure why. But it is much easier to ask ChatGPT to write some code than to actually try out a flying car.

bongodongobob 3y ago

We have self driving cars.

goatlover 3y ago
So why are people still driving cars? Why are there still Uber, delivery and truck drivers? 99.99% of vehicles are driven by humans. It's like saying we have flying cars. Sure, working prototypes have existed for some time now. There were (are?) companies making them. But it makes no real world difference. In the context of "no more programming", it makes no difference if some fancy AI model can in theory replace programmers, if they don't actually end up doing that on any real scale.
- Animats 3y ago
  > So why are people still driving cars? Because it costs Waymo about US$200,000 per car, not including the operating and maintenance staff. It will get cheaper.
- wruza 3y ago
  Because they are poor, also because of regulations crippling fsd (for better or worse).
  - scruple 3y ago
    What are the regulations preventing FSD?
    - vrighter 3y ago
      stuff like needing to take responsibility and accountability, if you are also taking control. Ewww, what a horrible concept that stifles innovation!
    - wruza 3y ago
      E.g. keep your hands on a wheel, be present and in a driver's seat. Anything unlike getting a cab.
- p1esk 3y ago
  You do realize the first ever decent AI has appeared less than a year ago? It’s available to anyone today for $20/mo, and it will get better and better every year. What we have now was considered pure science fiction just five years ago, a hypothetical technology - decades away at best. Why are people still driving cars? Because the autonomous driving technology wasn’t good until very recently. It has improved a lot in just the last few years, and you can already see self driving cars operating commercially in several cities. Again, it will get better every year, and as it gets better it will spread everywhere. It’s true that flying cars exist but haven’t become popular or widespread. I’m not entirely sure why. But it is much easier to ask ChatGPT to write some code than to actually try out a flying car.