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Fair enough - I just think this "bubble" has decent utility (arguably better than crypto, for example), and saying "AI" itself is a bubble, as the title proclai

Fair enough - I just think this "bubble" has decent utility (arguably better than crypto, for example), and saying "AI" itself is a bubble, as the title proclaims, is something I disagree with. ChatGPT and generative models being a panacea for every company, sure I can concede that its a bubble. Like I said, it has yet to be seen how AI "consumer" companies will make more money and/or increase margins with generative AI products.

noobermin 3y ago
Comparing it crypto says a lot.
- rapsey 3y ago
  Anyone comparing AI to crypto has too short of a memory or too uneducated to provide value to the discussion.
  - noobermin 3y ago
    I am alluding to the fact a lot of the bubble blowers are former crypto hanger ons and orbiters who now want a slice of this pie too. Anytime anyone compares AI to crypto you get the sense that person sees those technologies as similar because it serves a similar purpose for them, which as you said makes no sense if one had a clear mind about it and is thinking about the technical details.
    - rapsey 3y ago
      Bubble blowers are the major companies and VCs spending billions. Money, where it is coming from and where it is going is relevant, not who is yapping on Twitter.
- dagmx 3y ago
  I don’t think AI and crypto are comparable other than the hype cycle. Crypto legitimately hasn’t found a use case, whereas various ML/AI models are already somewhat useful. The big issue is: what is the product at the end of the tunnel? The really cool stuff is still too unreliable for day to day use because it hallucinates things. The cost to scale is also really high.
dagmx 3y ago
I don’t think Bubble has to imply lack of use. After all, the dotcom bubble saw tons of successful companies formed. The bubble just refers to the speculative growth. The pop is often just the number of companies failing to capitalize on the hype, and the following pullback on investor funding. I think AI is a bubble , but I think some companies will come out the other side with huge winning products. Many will burn their runways out.
rapsey 3y ago
AI craze has so many parallels to the .com bubble. But unless you are all in on nVidia stock I don't think it is nearly as financially dangerous as it was. The biggest parallel it has is that the world of AI is like the web was in the 90s. Merely a glimpse of what is to come. VCs and angel investors are likely to get killed, not so much public markets. .com craze had a ton of public companies being valued at outrageous numbers. Not so today, even nVidia's P/E ratio is not so crazy. During the .com craze a ton of fiber was put down which at the time could not get used. But it was used eventually. Something like that is going on with GPUs.
- johnthewise 3y ago
  I like the example of dotcom bubble enabling fiber investments. Hyping up internet applications enabled setting up infrastructure, which in turn made the hype real, albeit years later. I think in this wave, GPUs will be largely outdated in few years and they are not probably going to be powering up the usage by the time hype will become real. The actual utility of this infra investment I think comes primarily from money spent on RDing the next gen AI chips, which wouldn't have been possible if there wasn't any hype spending money on today's chips.
- lumost 3y ago
  I'm not certain that Cisco, Oracle, or other vendors ever took there crazy valuation to invest in web companies. There is a unique connection between NVidia investment and NVidia revenue. This effectively makes NVidia a leveraged investment on the AI space, however it's unclear whether all investors recognize the leveraged nature of the investment - or the portion which is funded directly out of firms like Meta ramping up their GPU buys.

noobermin 3y ago

Comparing it crypto says a lot.

rapsey 3y ago
Anyone comparing AI to crypto has too short of a memory or too uneducated to provide value to the discussion.
- noobermin 3y ago
  I am alluding to the fact a lot of the bubble blowers are former crypto hanger ons and orbiters who now want a slice of this pie too. Anytime anyone compares AI to crypto you get the sense that person sees those technologies as similar because it serves a similar purpose for them, which as you said makes no sense if one had a clear mind about it and is thinking about the technical details.
  - rapsey 3y ago
    Bubble blowers are the major companies and VCs spending billions. Money, where it is coming from and where it is going is relevant, not who is yapping on Twitter.
dagmx 3y ago
I don’t think AI and crypto are comparable other than the hype cycle. Crypto legitimately hasn’t found a use case, whereas various ML/AI models are already somewhat useful. The big issue is: what is the product at the end of the tunnel? The really cool stuff is still too unreliable for day to day use because it hallucinates things. The cost to scale is also really high.

dagmx 3y ago

I don’t think Bubble has to imply lack of use. After all, the dotcom bubble saw tons of successful companies formed. The bubble just refers to the speculative growth. The pop is often just the number of companies failing to capitalize on the hype, and the following pullback on investor funding. I think AI is a bubble , but I think some companies will come out the other side with huge winning products. Many will burn their runways out.

rapsey 3y ago

AI craze has so many parallels to the .com bubble. But unless you are all in on nVidia stock I don't think it is nearly as financially dangerous as it was. The biggest parallel it has is that the world of AI is like the web was in the 90s. Merely a glimpse of what is to come. VCs and angel investors are likely to get killed, not so much public markets. .com craze had a ton of public companies being valued at outrageous numbers. Not so today, even nVidia's P/E ratio is not so crazy. During the .com craze a ton of fiber was put down which at the time could not get used. But it was used eventually. Something like that is going on with GPUs.

johnthewise 3y ago
I like the example of dotcom bubble enabling fiber investments. Hyping up internet applications enabled setting up infrastructure, which in turn made the hype real, albeit years later. I think in this wave, GPUs will be largely outdated in few years and they are not probably going to be powering up the usage by the time hype will become real. The actual utility of this infra investment I think comes primarily from money spent on RDing the next gen AI chips, which wouldn't have been possible if there wasn't any hype spending money on today's chips.
lumost 3y ago
I'm not certain that Cisco, Oracle, or other vendors ever took there crazy valuation to invest in web companies. There is a unique connection between NVidia investment and NVidia revenue. This effectively makes NVidia a leveraged investment on the AI space, however it's unclear whether all investors recognize the leveraged nature of the investment - or the portion which is funded directly out of firms like Meta ramping up their GPU buys.