I think you are correct about my thinking: at the time, I assumed it was an example outcome and my brain turned off at that point and simply assumed the probs w

I think you are correct about my thinking: at the time, I assumed it was an example outcome and my brain turned off at that point and simply assumed the probs were still 50-50. In some sense I was both intellectually wrong (in my assumption about it being an example) and intellectually lazy (in my failure to work through the implications of my assumption). Personally the whole thing taught me is one true hallmark of intelligence is the ability to eliminate unnecessary ambiguity and find the "right" answer.