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I personally didn't realize how fast other models would catch up to OpenAI. There is a whole set of models now (and some like Meta are purposely trying to unde

I personally didn't realize how fast other models would catch up to OpenAI. There is a whole set of models now (and some like Meta are purposely trying to undermine OpenAI competitive advantage via open source models) and they are relatively interchangeable with nearly no lock-in. OpenAI's main advantage is being first to market and having the strongest model (GPT 4), and maybe they can continue to run ahead faster than everyone else, but pure technical leadership is hard to maintain, especially with so many competitors entering.

behnamoh 3y ago
> I personally didn't realize how fast other models would catch up to OpenAI. They haven't though. Gemini is vaporware and other models are not as good as GPT-4.
- bhouston 3y ago
  Mistral Large is quite close to GPT 4 per the stats from today: https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large/ https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large/ Now once OpenAI launches GPT 5 well I am sure other models won't look so good, but right now these other models are approaching GPT 4 capabilities.
  - parineum 3y ago
    I'm pretty bearish on GPT 5 being better than 4. With how neutered 4 has gotten over time, I'd be surprised if GPT 5 is able to perform better with all the same restrictions that GPT 4 has. GPT 4 is less and less willing to actually accomplish a task for you than it is to tell you how you can do it. It looks more and more like Markov chains every day.
    - staticman2 3y ago
      Did you mean bearish?
      - parineum 3y ago
        Yes I did, thanks.
- PunchTornado 3y ago
  I find gemini advanced better than gpt4. it is my go to option now.
- donny2018 3y ago
  For now. As others have said, there is no technological “moat” in this business that could prevent others from catching up. Perhaps the best way for Open AI is to become THE established AI services company. AWS is still the leader in cloud computing space, and only has Azure competing, despite the fact that other big companies are also technologically capable of building similar products.
  - nicce 3y ago
    > AWS is still the leader in cloud computing space, and only has Azure competing, despite the fact that other big companies are also technologically capable of building similar products. What happened to GCP? I personally switched away because of the bad experiences.. but is that happening in scale as well. I see it barely mentioned these days.
    - kccqzy 3y ago
      GCP is suffering from bad sales strategy and lack of existing enterprise relationships.
Marlinski 3y ago
Their main advantage for now is their super clean API. Open source alternative are already on par with GPT-3.5 and 4 capabilities, they just don't have as good a package but that could change rather quickly too.
- fakedang 3y ago
  Mistral's API was designed to be practically interchangeable with the OpenAI API.
- generalizations 3y ago
  What open source alternative is on par with GPT4?
- tombert 3y ago
  Is that true? I was running Llamas on my laptop a few days ago, and it was giving measurably worse results than ChatGPT. I think it was the uncensored 13B model, but if you got something that's on par with ChatGPT that I can run on my own hardware I'm pretty interested.
  - bhouston 3y ago
    13B models probably cannot directly compare with ChatGPT 4 which maybe +1T parameters or a 5 way MoE of 200B each - or something like that. So you can not likely run a model competitive with ChatGPT locally in the near term.
    - tombert 3y ago
      I have a server with a bunch of PCIe slots and like 4 Nvidia GPUs with 24GB of RAM each. What's the best model I can realistically run?
      - bhouston 3y ago
        Here are some scorecards: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderb... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/sentence-completion-on-hellaswag https://paperswithcode.com/sota/sentence-completion-on-hella... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-winogrande https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-wi... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-arc-challenge https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-ar... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-commonsenseqa https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-co...
moffkalast 3y ago
Sure, but it is somewhat disheartening to see GPT 4 still being the king by a clear margin after a full year, especially since it's been nerfed continuously for speed and cost effectiveness.

behnamoh 3y ago

> I personally didn't realize how fast other models would catch up to OpenAI. They haven't though. Gemini is vaporware and other models are not as good as GPT-4.

bhouston 3y ago
Mistral Large is quite close to GPT 4 per the stats from today: https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large/ https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large/ Now once OpenAI launches GPT 5 well I am sure other models won't look so good, but right now these other models are approaching GPT 4 capabilities.
- parineum 3y ago
  I'm pretty bearish on GPT 5 being better than 4. With how neutered 4 has gotten over time, I'd be surprised if GPT 5 is able to perform better with all the same restrictions that GPT 4 has. GPT 4 is less and less willing to actually accomplish a task for you than it is to tell you how you can do it. It looks more and more like Markov chains every day.
  - staticman2 3y ago
    Did you mean bearish?
    - parineum 3y ago
      Yes I did, thanks.
PunchTornado 3y ago
I find gemini advanced better than gpt4. it is my go to option now.
donny2018 3y ago
For now. As others have said, there is no technological “moat” in this business that could prevent others from catching up. Perhaps the best way for Open AI is to become THE established AI services company. AWS is still the leader in cloud computing space, and only has Azure competing, despite the fact that other big companies are also technologically capable of building similar products.
- nicce 3y ago
  > AWS is still the leader in cloud computing space, and only has Azure competing, despite the fact that other big companies are also technologically capable of building similar products. What happened to GCP? I personally switched away because of the bad experiences.. but is that happening in scale as well. I see it barely mentioned these days.
  - kccqzy 3y ago
    GCP is suffering from bad sales strategy and lack of existing enterprise relationships.

Marlinski 3y ago

Their main advantage for now is their super clean API. Open source alternative are already on par with GPT-3.5 and 4 capabilities, they just don't have as good a package but that could change rather quickly too.

fakedang 3y ago
Mistral's API was designed to be practically interchangeable with the OpenAI API.
generalizations 3y ago
What open source alternative is on par with GPT4?
tombert 3y ago
Is that true? I was running Llamas on my laptop a few days ago, and it was giving measurably worse results than ChatGPT. I think it was the uncensored 13B model, but if you got something that's on par with ChatGPT that I can run on my own hardware I'm pretty interested.
- bhouston 3y ago
  13B models probably cannot directly compare with ChatGPT 4 which maybe +1T parameters or a 5 way MoE of 200B each - or something like that. So you can not likely run a model competitive with ChatGPT locally in the near term.
  - tombert 3y ago
    I have a server with a bunch of PCIe slots and like 4 Nvidia GPUs with 24GB of RAM each. What's the best model I can realistically run?
    - bhouston 3y ago
      Here are some scorecards: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderb... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/sentence-completion-on-hellaswag https://paperswithcode.com/sota/sentence-completion-on-hella... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-winogrande https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-wi... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-arc-challenge https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-ar... https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-commonsenseqa https://paperswithcode.com/sota/common-sense-reasoning-on-co...

moffkalast 3y ago

Sure, but it is somewhat disheartening to see GPT 4 still being the king by a clear margin after a full year, especially since it's been nerfed continuously for speed and cost effectiveness.