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> The false myth of a research-related accident being at the root of the COVID-19 pandemic has become endemic in society. Despite a large and detailed body of s

> The false myth of a research-related accident being at the root of the COVID-19 pandemic has become endemic in society. Despite a large and detailed body of scientific evidence contradicting or disproving most circulating ideas, many proponents are reluctant to give up even the most unsustainable notions of genetic engineering or gain-of-function research. This gap between scientific knowledge and public belief is dangerous for any democratic society. I thought this was still up in the air.

hn8305823 3y ago
It's actually swung the other way with multiple US Government agencies and even former CDC cheif Redfield admitting that a lab leak is most likely: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/covid-virus-likely-laboratory-leak-us-energy-department https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/covid-virus-li... https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/02/26/timeline-how-the-covid-lab-leak-origin-story-went-from-conspiracy-theory-to-government-debate/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/02/26/timel... FBI Chief Christopher Wray: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903 Former CDC Chief Robert Redfield: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64891745 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64891745
- consumer451 3y ago
  The best evidence is undisclosed classified intelligence which was considered "low confidence." WMD in Iraq was also "low confidence" intel.
  - wakawaka28 3y ago
    The intelligence agencies were behind illegal biological research in other countries, and multiple countries covered it up. It's amazing that they fessed up to the possibility of a lab leak at all.
standapart 3y ago
From subpoenaed communications we even know that certain figures who publicly denounced the lab-leak theory, privately believed the theory was plausible or even likely. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-lab-leak-deception-andersen-nih-research-paper-private-message-52fc0c16 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-lab-leak-deception-an... This article is part of what I like to call the narrative media. You decide what the facts are and don't give a damn about reality -- because that's what keeps your readers coming back for more.
- peter422 3y ago
  I do always find this funny as a major support for the lab leak theory. At that time there wasn’t any of the genetic lineage information that we have now which is the strongest evidence for zoonotic origin. Why does anybody’s public or private beliefs at that point in time matter? Politics have always existed in science but generally over time the truth wins.
  - wakawaka28 3y ago
    "Truth wins over time" means 50 years after you die and none of this matters anymore, someone will bravely say the truth with no fear of consequences. Especially when there is such a huge conspiracy to cover things up and the facts are so inaccessible to ordinary people. >Why does anybody’s public or private beliefs at that point in time matter? If someone demonstrated a pattern of lying in their own favor, isn't that important?
    - peter422 3y ago
      There is more than enough evidence now to make a strong conclusion, as the OP shows. When the people were caught lying, only like 5% of the eventual information was known. It’s bad for their personal reputations that they were caught lying (or at minimum misrepresenting their own views), but their lies don’t change the underlying facts. I also think it is notable that the politically correct view turned out to be most likely correct. I also strongly suspect a lot of lab leak proponents and/or anti-vaxxers are knowingly lying as well. But still it doesn’t change the underlying facts.
karaterobot 3y ago
I thought so too. What I know is that neither winning or losing a debate, nor writing a substack article about it, proves or disproves anything. Which is why the whole business is silly. It either is or isn't the case, independent of how much money changes hands.
orwin 3y ago
I thought too, I watched part of the debate and submitted evidence, I now know it isn't in scientific circle, it's pretty much closed. Prior to the debate I thought it was likely a specimen leak (couldn't be an engineered virus, it used previously unknown, and inefficient, means to enter human cells, also to much randomness in its DNA). The debate was a schooling in statistics (which is sad cause I have an applied statistics bachelor), I know believe it was zoonotic. I don't really care either way now.
wslack 3y ago
The author of this is presenting their view and you have hours of content to watch about this if you want to dig into it. One problem is that "lab leak," as Peter says, means a bunch of amalgamated theories. It's hard to discuss this without going through in depth, which is what this debate tried to do.
wakawaka28 3y ago
It's not really. Odds are it was a lab leak. The Chinese and US governments both want to cover it up, because the coronavirus research was illegal in the US and they both had a part in creating a global pandemic. The absurdities that these scientists come up with to cover for each other are funny as hell. Too bad we still have people urging censorship and worse on this matter.
Turing_Machine 3y ago
Indeed. You have a) an outbreak of a novel virus in b) a city where "gain of function" research is being carried out with that very same family of viruses in c) a country that (to put it mildly) is not exactly famed for its high levels of quality control. Does that mean that it definitely was a lab leak? No. Does it mean that even suggesting that it might've been a lab leak is some kind of "truther" bullshit? Also no. If I find zebra dung in my garden in Northern Minnesota, and Bob's Zebra Farm is just down the road, it is in no sense a "conspiracy theory" to suggest that one of Bob's zebras might have escaped, and making that suggestion does not make you a "truther" (God, I hate that word... it's just ad hominem nonsense). Now, maybe someone else in the neighborhood has a zebra, or maybe a traveling circus passed through and one of their zebras escaped, or maybe there's yet another explanation. But, you know, I'm still going to count Bob as a prime suspect, no matter how much Bob and Bob's buddies try to make me look ridiculous for even making the suggestion.

hn8305823 3y ago

It's actually swung the other way with multiple US Government agencies and even former CDC cheif Redfield admitting that a lab leak is most likely: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/covid-virus-likely-laboratory-leak-us-energy-department https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/covid-virus-li... https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/02/26/timeline-how-the-covid-lab-leak-origin-story-went-from-conspiracy-theory-to-government-debate/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/02/26/timel... FBI Chief Christopher Wray: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903 Former CDC Chief Robert Redfield: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64891745 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64891745

consumer451 3y ago
The best evidence is undisclosed classified intelligence which was considered "low confidence." WMD in Iraq was also "low confidence" intel.
- wakawaka28 3y ago
  The intelligence agencies were behind illegal biological research in other countries, and multiple countries covered it up. It's amazing that they fessed up to the possibility of a lab leak at all.

standapart 3y ago

From subpoenaed communications we even know that certain figures who publicly denounced the lab-leak theory, privately believed the theory was plausible or even likely. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-lab-leak-deception-andersen-nih-research-paper-private-message-52fc0c16 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-lab-leak-deception-an... This article is part of what I like to call the narrative media. You decide what the facts are and don't give a damn about reality -- because that's what keeps your readers coming back for more.

peter422 3y ago
I do always find this funny as a major support for the lab leak theory. At that time there wasn’t any of the genetic lineage information that we have now which is the strongest evidence for zoonotic origin. Why does anybody’s public or private beliefs at that point in time matter? Politics have always existed in science but generally over time the truth wins.
- wakawaka28 3y ago
  "Truth wins over time" means 50 years after you die and none of this matters anymore, someone will bravely say the truth with no fear of consequences. Especially when there is such a huge conspiracy to cover things up and the facts are so inaccessible to ordinary people. >Why does anybody’s public or private beliefs at that point in time matter? If someone demonstrated a pattern of lying in their own favor, isn't that important?
  - peter422 3y ago
    There is more than enough evidence now to make a strong conclusion, as the OP shows. When the people were caught lying, only like 5% of the eventual information was known. It’s bad for their personal reputations that they were caught lying (or at minimum misrepresenting their own views), but their lies don’t change the underlying facts. I also think it is notable that the politically correct view turned out to be most likely correct. I also strongly suspect a lot of lab leak proponents and/or anti-vaxxers are knowingly lying as well. But still it doesn’t change the underlying facts.

karaterobot 3y ago

I thought so too. What I know is that neither winning or losing a debate, nor writing a substack article about it, proves or disproves anything. Which is why the whole business is silly. It either is or isn't the case, independent of how much money changes hands.

orwin 3y ago

I thought too, I watched part of the debate and submitted evidence, I now know it isn't in scientific circle, it's pretty much closed. Prior to the debate I thought it was likely a specimen leak (couldn't be an engineered virus, it used previously unknown, and inefficient, means to enter human cells, also to much randomness in its DNA). The debate was a schooling in statistics (which is sad cause I have an applied statistics bachelor), I know believe it was zoonotic. I don't really care either way now.

wslack 3y ago

The author of this is presenting their view and you have hours of content to watch about this if you want to dig into it. One problem is that "lab leak," as Peter says, means a bunch of amalgamated theories. It's hard to discuss this without going through in depth, which is what this debate tried to do.

wakawaka28 3y ago

It's not really. Odds are it was a lab leak. The Chinese and US governments both want to cover it up, because the coronavirus research was illegal in the US and they both had a part in creating a global pandemic. The absurdities that these scientists come up with to cover for each other are funny as hell. Too bad we still have people urging censorship and worse on this matter.

Turing_Machine 3y ago

Indeed. You have a) an outbreak of a novel virus in b) a city where "gain of function" research is being carried out with that very same family of viruses in c) a country that (to put it mildly) is not exactly famed for its high levels of quality control. Does that mean that it definitely was a lab leak? No. Does it mean that even suggesting that it might've been a lab leak is some kind of "truther" bullshit? Also no. If I find zebra dung in my garden in Northern Minnesota, and Bob's Zebra Farm is just down the road, it is in no sense a "conspiracy theory" to suggest that one of Bob's zebras might have escaped, and making that suggestion does not make you a "truther" (God, I hate that word... it's just ad hominem nonsense). Now, maybe someone else in the neighborhood has a zebra, or maybe a traveling circus passed through and one of their zebras escaped, or maybe there's yet another explanation. But, you know, I'm still going to count Bob as a prime suspect, no matter how much Bob and Bob's buddies try to make me look ridiculous for even making the suggestion.