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Nvidia is heavily overpriced at the moment. My personal prediction is that in the long term, Nvidia can expect a similar situation to what happened to Tesla, wh

Nvidia is heavily overpriced at the moment. My personal prediction is that in the long term, Nvidia can expect a similar situation to what happened to Tesla, which involves a relatively slow price correction after the AI hype diminishes. The EV hype slowly died out, and we can see it reflected in the prices of all EV companies.

latsu 3y ago
Tesla still seems to be over-valued. I don't see why they would be worth 10x other car manufacturers, especially ones that have quality manufacturing already down.
- nradov 3y ago
  Have you taken a short position?
  - matsemann 3y ago
    Is that relevant?
    - kelseyfrog 3y ago
      Yes
      - loceng 3y ago
        "Put your money where your mouth is"
        matsemann 3y ago
        But things can remain overhyped longer than I can afford to short it. Hence why I believe it's not relevant.
      - TheAlchemist 3y ago
        It's not. Shorting bubbles or frauds is not a good idea, unless you find an instrument through which you can do it for a long time, without paying too much premium. This is very rare.
- menshiki 3y ago
  I agree. And I believe that the value will keep declining.
- cityofdelusion 3y ago
  Not based on the fundamentals. Tesla maintains a high profit margin and doesn’t carry immense debt loads like the traditional manufacturers. Additionally Tesla has some degree of self-driving success priced in. Traditional auto also returns most profit as dividends and the stocks do not grow.
  - Aromasin 3y ago
    They still sit at roughly 50x PE Ratio though. You'd have to expect such high growth (way more than even they forecast) to make sense of buying into that if you're not reliant on making money on hype and brand awareness, which is brutally fickle.
  - loceng 3y ago
    Is there a reason why you didn't include their current battery production operations and future plans in this regard, along with solar, along with the TeslaBot that once far enough along will basically create a feedback loop that will make practically everything we currently do "free" to do? The TeslaBot with even a dumb level of "AI" for learning and mimicking actions the Bot is shown to perform and can mimic based on its non-meat stick appendages - whole systems and funnels from farming to getting a cooked meal on the dinner table could be (eventually) fully automated with little to no human oversight, where the only initial inputs are raw-natural resources; the problem then that 100% of humanity needs to focus on is then heavy oversight and real-time in-person witnessing that such systems aren't being corrupted-captured by bad actors. There are other synergies with companies Elon is involved with that people seem to fail to see the synergies of, including but not limited to his effort towards colonizing Mars - of which there will be plenty of ongoing Elon also controlling Starlink, assuming every Tesla vehicle will have capacity in future for their vehicles to be connected, they'll be able to undercut competitors - and will also act as downward pressure on competition to not overcharge; I believe Elon stated his goal is $5 billion/month from Starlink subscriptions to pay for his Mars efforts, with the first organization to get space mining operations into play - able to extract and send home refined product - has then tapped into the unlimited abundance of the universe, the profits of which reinvested fuels progress along an exponential path; once these systems are in play and self-sustainable, reaching that point by being a better offering, value-price wise, then that frees up time to focus on launching the next puzzle piece - each puzzle piece compounding with the others; his "free" time, fortunately for us, most recently leading to him somewhat impulsively - but clearly his impulses are existential crisis-importance driven - he bought Twitter to protect free speech and unveiled-unmasked the corruption and treason via releasing the Twitter Files. Elon's arguably 20 years ahead of everyone else in regards to the holistic possibilities that his ecosystem of companies will allow for, and arguably every year there is the possibility he leapfrogs another 10 years ahead.
familiarzombie7 3y ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/financials
stevev 3y ago
I disagree. Vehicles are one thing, AI chips are another. One is a default investment for any AI tech company to survive. Data centers will only grow from here.
- menshiki 3y ago
  Shouldn't TSMC be the most valuable company in the world then?
  - adam_arthur 3y ago
    TSMC doesn't seem to use their market power to push price. Their take of the final consumer sale price is quite low... they're selling chips to NVDA for ~2k which NVDA turns around and sells for ~60k. I haven't researched it in-depth, but my take is that they don't have the culture to really be aggressive on pricing.
- adam_arthur 3y ago
  It's not about whether they'll grow, it's about whether they'll grow more than is priced in
  - mnky9800n 3y ago
    Doesn't that assume the market is perfectly able to assess value? As an example the market decided Netflix was a terrible value when they announced they were a video streaming company in like 2008ish losing around half their value. Except we all know now that was not a priced in moment.
    - adam_arthur 3y ago
      That's an example of "growing more than is priced in"
      - mnky9800n 3y ago
        I thought if the market is efficient then everything is always priced in?

latsu 3y ago

Tesla still seems to be over-valued. I don't see why they would be worth 10x other car manufacturers, especially ones that have quality manufacturing already down.

nradov 3y ago
Have you taken a short position?
- matsemann 3y ago
  Is that relevant?
  - kelseyfrog 3y ago
    Yes
    - loceng 3y ago
      "Put your money where your mouth is"
      - matsemann 3y ago
        But things can remain overhyped longer than I can afford to short it. Hence why I believe it's not relevant.
    - TheAlchemist 3y ago
      It's not. Shorting bubbles or frauds is not a good idea, unless you find an instrument through which you can do it for a long time, without paying too much premium. This is very rare.
menshiki 3y ago
I agree. And I believe that the value will keep declining.
cityofdelusion 3y ago
Not based on the fundamentals. Tesla maintains a high profit margin and doesn’t carry immense debt loads like the traditional manufacturers. Additionally Tesla has some degree of self-driving success priced in. Traditional auto also returns most profit as dividends and the stocks do not grow.
- Aromasin 3y ago
  They still sit at roughly 50x PE Ratio though. You'd have to expect such high growth (way more than even they forecast) to make sense of buying into that if you're not reliant on making money on hype and brand awareness, which is brutally fickle.
- loceng 3y ago
  Is there a reason why you didn't include their current battery production operations and future plans in this regard, along with solar, along with the TeslaBot that once far enough along will basically create a feedback loop that will make practically everything we currently do "free" to do? The TeslaBot with even a dumb level of "AI" for learning and mimicking actions the Bot is shown to perform and can mimic based on its non-meat stick appendages - whole systems and funnels from farming to getting a cooked meal on the dinner table could be (eventually) fully automated with little to no human oversight, where the only initial inputs are raw-natural resources; the problem then that 100% of humanity needs to focus on is then heavy oversight and real-time in-person witnessing that such systems aren't being corrupted-captured by bad actors. There are other synergies with companies Elon is involved with that people seem to fail to see the synergies of, including but not limited to his effort towards colonizing Mars - of which there will be plenty of ongoing Elon also controlling Starlink, assuming every Tesla vehicle will have capacity in future for their vehicles to be connected, they'll be able to undercut competitors - and will also act as downward pressure on competition to not overcharge; I believe Elon stated his goal is $5 billion/month from Starlink subscriptions to pay for his Mars efforts, with the first organization to get space mining operations into play - able to extract and send home refined product - has then tapped into the unlimited abundance of the universe, the profits of which reinvested fuels progress along an exponential path; once these systems are in play and self-sustainable, reaching that point by being a better offering, value-price wise, then that frees up time to focus on launching the next puzzle piece - each puzzle piece compounding with the others; his "free" time, fortunately for us, most recently leading to him somewhat impulsively - but clearly his impulses are existential crisis-importance driven - he bought Twitter to protect free speech and unveiled-unmasked the corruption and treason via releasing the Twitter Files. Elon's arguably 20 years ahead of everyone else in regards to the holistic possibilities that his ecosystem of companies will allow for, and arguably every year there is the possibility he leapfrogs another 10 years ahead.

familiarzombie7 3y ago

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/financials https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/financials

stevev 3y ago

I disagree. Vehicles are one thing, AI chips are another. One is a default investment for any AI tech company to survive. Data centers will only grow from here.

menshiki 3y ago
Shouldn't TSMC be the most valuable company in the world then?
- adam_arthur 3y ago
  TSMC doesn't seem to use their market power to push price. Their take of the final consumer sale price is quite low... they're selling chips to NVDA for ~2k which NVDA turns around and sells for ~60k. I haven't researched it in-depth, but my take is that they don't have the culture to really be aggressive on pricing.
adam_arthur 3y ago
It's not about whether they'll grow, it's about whether they'll grow more than is priced in
- mnky9800n 3y ago
  Doesn't that assume the market is perfectly able to assess value? As an example the market decided Netflix was a terrible value when they announced they were a video streaming company in like 2008ish losing around half their value. Except we all know now that was not a priced in moment.
  - adam_arthur 3y ago
    That's an example of "growing more than is priced in"
    - mnky9800n 3y ago
      I thought if the market is efficient then everything is always priced in?