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The US has become extraordinary expensive compared to most of the world. Or to say it differently the dollar is likely quite overvalued.
by rapsey 3y ago
The US has become extraordinary expensive compared to most of the world. Or to say it differently the dollar is likely quite overvalued.
- ekianjo 3y agothe dollar is hitting record inflation rates though. does that mean the worst is yet to come for the dollar?
- gumby 3y ago> record inflation rates Record? I guess you didn’t live through the 1970s, much less post WWI and WWII. Of course the deflation of the 1930s was even more destructive!
- justinzollars 3y agoThey changed the way we measure inflation big time since the 70s. My bills are up 40% in the last 3 years. The interesting thing is this is far from over. We will see how this ends. I'm not optimistic.
- lottin 3y agoSo you're saying that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics should throw their statistical methodology out of the window and instead use your bills to measure inflation?
- teitoklien 3y agoI doubt the main commenter, meant it that way, why is there any need to bash them ? It’s a political issue, well criticised and commented on, that governments intentionally game metrics like inflation, etc to look good on paper for incumbent presidents and heads of state. Also, the inflation rate is a very inconsistent number, different regions of the US has different rent price increases, different cost of labour increases, different product prices for a lot of goods. How can the nation be entirely ruled by one common inflation rate. All statistics like this which have to target so many regions, environments, and scenarios, always have to make decisions, that sacrifice some scenario or the other, where the “score” is a very poor indicator This applies not just to inflation, but other metrics like gdp per capita, employment rate, etc. There is no need for that condescending tone, especially when the author is talking about their increased cost of living, which prolly hurt their purchasing power.
- zmgsabst 3y agoThis is a nonsense reply. You’re committing a fallacy of “Appeal to Authority”, even though your comment doesn’t make sense — obviously we need a consistent measure across decades if we want to compare inflation across decades. Comparing two numbers that measure different things is an apples-to-oranges comparison. (Which is what you’re arguing we should do.) If you use a consistent measure from a 1980s basis, you’ll see that person is correct — as measured using the historic means, we’ve had ~40% inflation in the past few years and the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This chart uses the historic measure and bases in 1980. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
- lottin 3y agoWhenever there's a change in methodology, it's common practice to retroactively recalculate the entire series so that the data are consistent. Economists aren't that dumb.
- vineyardmike 3y agoYea but news articles and anecdotes from that period in time aren’t rewritten
- sph 3y agoIt's not economists being dumb, it's gaming from politicians to paint a rosier picture than it is.
- hughesjj 3y agoThis still allows for you to choose the metric that best benefits your narrative today, which essentially every bls report has done. I still remember them removing the people who had been out of the job for xx months during the 2008 recession from the 'unemployed' category. 'oh look unemployment is down!'. '...but so is the labor participation rate...'
- lottin 3y agoOkay... we were talking about inflation. When and how exactly has the BLS chosen an inflation metric that suits "the narrative" of today?
- satellite2 3y agoHis feelings are correctly placed though. Even though macro economists agree the current methodology is the least wrong, they also agree that the BLS series cannot explain why Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt. A slight error in BLS methodology, could explain that reality. So comparing the CPI to your own reality is clearly very rational.
- ffgjgf1 3y ago> Americans have stopped saving Have they? The personal savings rate is not that much lower than it was between 2000 and ~2019 on average
- trog 3y agoIt's pretty low, and I'm not sure average is the best measure here, but I can't find median to compare. I did see this a few weeks ago and thought it was interesting - excess saving rates are dropping sharply: https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 There is another household debt graph that I can't find right now that is going up. I suspect the decline in savings rate is being buoyed somewhat by debt.
- nindalf 3y agoHis feelings were correctly placed. There was a vibecession last year when consumer sentiment was lower than it had been during the 2008 recession. This was in spite of low unemployment, high growth, high wage growth, low inflation and reasonable gas prices. The reason behind the low consumer sentiment wasn't a flaw in BLS methodology, no one seriously questions any of the stats I mentioned. Rather, it's that the effect of a couple of years of high inflation continued to weigh on consumers. 6 months of low inflation didn't reverse previous price increases, nor did they forget what prices used to be. And yet, it's fundamental human nature to adapt to circumstances. Consumer sentiment has actually increased substantially in the last 3 months. Source: American consumers are finally cheering up (The Economist - https://archive.is/vJ7gf https://archive.is/vJ7gf). > The rate of improvement is especially striking. The 30% increase since November marks the survey’s biggest rise over any three-month period in more than three decades. The level remains glum by historical standards: about 15% below its average in the five years before the covid-19 pandemic. In summary, the BLS' methodology to calculate economic indicators is fine. And assuming those indicators continue their trend, it's likely that consumer sentiment will continue to recover. You also claim that > Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt Except this isn't true? According to surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf Page 30), consumer debt has gone down steadily from 2010 to 2022. At this point, I got to ask - what is your source for facts?
- dwighttk 3y agoMight be better than Krugman’s “no food, shelter, energy, or used cars” number
- gumby 3y agoSuch a strange comment. Yes, like most macroeconomists he uses a low pass filtered number (so-called “core inflation”) to look for underlying trends but is quite aware that headline inflation (includes the high frequency fluctuations) is what actual humans see at the store. And he discussed the used car numbers — such an interesting outlier — as an indicator of supply-side shock. You can agree or disagree with his Keynesian positions but he’s pretty clear with his thinking and calls out when he was wrong. To the degree macroeconomics can be considered a science, that’s what you want from a scientist, isn’t it?
- gumby 3y agoWell it's a perpetual dilemma as they have to keep changing: food is now less than 10% of a family's budget while it used to be over 30% as it is in poor countries like Russia (just happened to see that figure last week). People spend money on computers which they didnt' in the 1980s, etc. > The interesting thing is this is far from over. What do you think is the cause and why it is far from over? I'm curious, not trying to start an argument
- zmgsabst 3y agoYes — if you use a consistent measure, this latest inflation is the same rate as the late-70s/early-80s inflation. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts In fact, 2020s inflation (using historic measure) peaked at over 15% while the 1970s spike peaked below 15% — meaning that this latest inflation sets the record compared to the 1970s. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation Ignorant incredulity and “back in my day!” aren’t good arguments.
- foobiekr 3y agoShadowstats has admitted to just making up their data. Not exactly a compelling source. Best case they are just incompetent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com
- hughesjj 3y agoJFC > Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.[25] >> I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an add factor to the reported statistics Same article says he charges $175/year/subscription since 2006. I'd love to get paid that much to do a high school level introductory programming assignment. The business logic is literally a one liner X-D
- ffgjgf1 3y agoInflation was consistently very high in the 70s while time time it peaked in 2022 and then went down relatively rapidly. Of course it might rebound but until that happens it’s hardly comparable.
- AnimalMuppet 3y agoYou don't slavishly believe the government inflation data? That's fine; nothing wrong with that. But don't slavishly believe Shadowstat's inflation number either.
- oldpersonintx 3y ago[dead]
- rapsey 3y agoThe US inflation did not come out of devaluation of the dollar compared to other currencies. It was internal. What that means for the future however I have no idea. But considering the US gov deficits I would assume more inflation is to come with actual devaluation.
- screenoridesagb 3y ago[dead]
- grecy 3y agoWe Canadians used to regularly talk about how cheap the US was, and load up on gas, food, beer, cheese and all the rest when staying in cheap hotels and getting cheap meals with cheap entertainment (concerts, sporting events, etc.). If you could be bothered electronics were cheap, cars were cheap, clothes were cheap, etc. etc. In the last ~12 months I have been floored how expensive life in the US is now. I was just down two weeks ago, and everything was either the same dollar number as Canada or higher, but it's in US dollars. I don't know how people are doing it.
- rapsey 3y agoThey are doing it with wage growth. Inflation is likely a result of high employment levels. There are more jobs than candidates. Personally I believe it is due to the last of the boomers retiring. Economists/analysts are not used to thinking about demographics and they have a blind spot on this ever more important topic.
- rayiner 3y agoSupermarket prices are up 25% since 2020: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/food-prices-grocery-inflation-biden-economy https://www.cbsnews.com/news/food-prices-grocery-inflation-b.... People’s wages are not 25% higher.
- rapsey 3y agoMore people are employed however.
- iraqmtpizza 3y ago[dead]
- lotsofpulp 3y agoWhat else would be expected after decades of dropping fertility rates?
- downrightmike 3y agoOvervalued by a lot, we expected a full global crash in which so far in history the USA has bounced back first. But instead we pumped out 20% of all USD ever printed, which created a slow burn. As long as the keep rates where they are or higher, we should recover. I personally think rates are too low, and this last week has proven that is the right view, the market can still remain delusional far longer than I can. The longer the unrealistic expectation of rates falling at all this year, just increases the risk we'll have trouble. Cheap cash is gone, you gotta earn it now. Downvote all you like, doesn't change the fact that rates need to stay up or we risk a similar situation as the early 80's.
- rapsey 3y agoI mostly agree the market has entirely unrealistic expectations of rates going lower. I think the cause is structural due to the tight employment market which is not going to change any time soon. The period of low inflation and low rates is over and the market analysts are living in the previous decade.
- Timber-6539 3y agoThe Fed needs an excuse to return ZIRP. There's no way around it as the economy is now designed around cheap money and inflationary valuations. And for this specific reason I present to you AI.
- rapsey 3y agoS&P 500 has hit an ATH not long ago with high rates. The economy seems to be working quite well. There is not even a crash in residential real estate. The commercial real estate is going bust, but there are funds just waiting for current owners to go out of business and buy up the buildings for pennies on the dollar.
- Timber-6539 3y agoThe S&P 500 rally is just 7 stocks and is not a true representative of the real economy anyways. I think you have my argument confused. I'm not saying the U.S is supposed to be in a recession or headed into one.
- modeless 3y agoThe other side of this coin is that exports are very difficult. My dad is a nut farmer and the business is completely unsustainable right now. Expenses are through the roof while simultaneously crop prices are at all time lows due to the collapse of exports. It's nuts.
- thebruce87m 3y ago> It's nuts. Is this an industry saying?
- lostlogin 3y agoA good brand name.
- grugagag 3y agoHow come nuts prices aren’t low for consumers though?
- Pigalowda 3y agoIt’s idiotic. I went to Zermatt and the little grocery store there was cheaper than Seattle Safeway. A ski resort in a land locked country with higher food quality standards that has cheaper food than a coastal US city with a port is absurd. I think safeway is trying to take over QFC/Kroger so that’s great.
- fourteenfour 3y agoI just looked up some price data for Zermatt and it seems that at least now, it's quite a bit more expensive than Seattle on average. https://www.numbeo.com/food-prices/in/Zermatt-Switzerland?displayCurrency=USD https://www.numbeo.com/food-prices/in/Zermatt-Switzerland?di... https://hikersbay.com/prices/switzerland/zermatt?lang=en https://hikersbay.com/prices/switzerland/zermatt?lang=en
- valdiorn 3y agoAmerica has always been famous for the fact that everything is extremely cheap. But now I'm seeing videos of people at Costco/Walmart showing the prices of stuff (often while finding an old price label and showing there's been a 50-100% increase over the last year) and it's actually way more expensive than what I pay in the UK.